The US president is already putting into practice his premise "America First", which leads Central America to anticipate negative changes in the flow of remittances from that country.
From a statement issued by the Central Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
Icefi recommends changing the economic and fiscal model in Central America in light of possible adoption of radical US policies.
During 2012, $500 million was registered in Panama as remittance inflows and outflows, while exports of goods only generated $80 million for the country.
Amounts received in remittances already exceed $500 million, while remittances sent abroad are increasing and in 2012 they reached $321 million.
"The business of remittances sent and received from Panama added up to a total of $533.7 million last year.
After 16 months of continuous growth, remittances in July were down 9% compared to the same period in 2010.
According to the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), remittances received in July totaled $349.8 million, 9% less than the $384.6 million received in the same month in 2010.
"Compared to remittances received in June, when there was a monthly record of $416.4 million, the drop was 16 percent.
The crisis has been worsened by higher food prices, bad bean and wheat harvests caused by drought and less remittances.
A contributing factor is the movement of agricultural human resources, which has caused excess labor supply in some regions. This happened in addition to last year's drought, which destroyed 90% of wheat and bean crops, basic components in the daily diet of Guatemalans.
The recession was caused by less international demand and lower domestic consumption.
Government authorities and the International Monetary Fund added they expect the economy to grow 1% in 2010.
"Among other macroeconomic variables, remittances dropped 8.6% in 2009, which translates to $321.7 million less than in 2008. Credit to the private sector fell -5.7%, according to preliminary figures", reported Elsalvador.com.
2009 will mark the first time in 25 years in which remittances drop when compared to the previous year.
From January to October 2009, the country received $2.8 billion, and according to Central Bank estimates, the final figure for 2009 could be $3.4 billion.
"Remittances account for between 17% and 18% of the nation's GDP, so 'a 10% drop implies 2 percentage points less of Gross Domestic Product.
One year after the fall of Lehman Brothers, SECMCA analyzes the international situation, and Central America's perspectives and current situation.
Production continues to fall, as evidenced by the Central American Monthly Economic Activity Index, confirming a process started on the last trimester of 2008. June's variation was -1.9% when compared to the same month of the previous year.
Through programs and measures included in the Global Anti-Crisis Plan, the government intends to compensate the 11% drop in remittances.
This was explained by Alexander Segovia, the Presidency's Technical Secretary, who also announced proposals geared towards small entrepreneurs and producers.
ElSalvador.com published more statements by Segovia: "...
In the first half of the year, $1.7 billion were sent to the country by Salvadorans abroad, 10.3% less than the same period of 2008.
Remittances averaged $290 million each month during this semester, whereas the average was $323.1 during the first half of 2008, according to data from the Reserve Bank (BCR).
From elsalvador.com: "After almost three decades of continued growth, remittances have started to fall at double digit rates, severely diminishing economic activity. Consumption takes the worst part, as it depends heavily on money sent by Salvadorans abroad."
In the first half of the year remittances reached $1.93 billion, $203 million less than the first half of 2008.
According to monthly stats published by the Banco de Guatemala (Banguat), remittances summed $349 in June, the highest monthly figure since October 2008.
Ruben Darío Narciso, consultant for the Asociation of Economic and Social Investigations (Asies, acronym in Spanish), was quoted by Elperiodico.com.gt: "A reduction in remittances has negative effects, causing a reduction on the purchasing power of households that receive the money, and increasing precaution when spending in goods and services".
During the first four months of this year, the country reported the largest decrease in the volume of remittances in all of Central America.
According to a report from the Inter-American Development Bank, after 10 years of continuous growth, the interannual variation of remittances between the months of January and April showed a drop of 10%.
Reporter Patricia Palma writes in Elsalvador.com: “This decline is fundamentally explained by rising unemployment in the United States which, unlike what happened in the crisis in 2001, is affecting practically all sectors and states within the country. At that time, the economic recession was ‘avoided’ by the immigrants thanks to their flexibility in skills and geography; however, the current circumstances have caused a smaller margin to maneuver because all sectors that rely on heavy labor have reported big drop-offs in demand.”
In April, received remittances totaled $292.5 million, compared to $338.5 million during the same period last year
In the first quarter of this year, received remittances were 9.2% lower than during the first quarter in 2008.
Keny López wrote in Laprensagrafica.com: "So far this year, there have been four other decreases: -8.4% in January, -7.8% in February, -6.7% in March and -13.6 % in April.
According to the Central Reserve Bank, the negative growth behavior of most economic indicators put the country on the brink of a recession.
Elsalvador.com published: "In February 2009, there were two consecutive quarters with the negative growth of the Economic Activity Volume Index (IVAE), and other variables with which we measure the country's macroeconomic performance and the trend point to a continual decline.
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