According to Fitch Ratings, banks in Nicaragua will continue to be pressured by the remaining effects of an economic contraction for the second consecutive year, a situation derived from the political crisis affecting the country.
Fitch Ratings decided to keep the country's risk rating at B, but changed the outlook from negative to stable, arguing that there are some signs of stabilization of Central Bank reserves and commercial bank deposits.
The revision of the outlook reflects the stabilization of central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits, a significant fiscal adjustment and social security reform that have reduced domestic financing needs and a pronounced external rebalancing that has facilitated the external financing requirement, the rating agency reported.
Standard & Poor's warned that if in the coming months the political environment worsens or access to local and external financing deteriorates again, the debt note could suffer further deterioration.
The latest risk ratings for the issuance of long-term debt of Central American economies identify Panama as the most attractive country to invest in.
On March 8, Moody's decided to raise its long-term issuer rating in foreign currency from Baa2 to Baa1, arguing that the outlook remains more favorable in the medium term.
The governments of Costa Rica and Nicaragua will face greater challenges in obtaining financing in external markets, because of the lowering of their risk ratings by international agencies.
Arguing that Costa Rica reflects consistently large fiscal deficits, short-term financing needs because of a strong repayment schedule and budget financing constraints, Fitch Ratings reported on January 15 that the country's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating was downgraded from BB to B+.
Justifying a larger-than-expected economic contraction, a growing fiscal deficit and a greater risk of internal and external financial constraints, the rating agency lowered the rating from B to B-.
This is Fitch Ratings' second downgrade so far this year. In the first quarter, the rating was B+ with a solid outlook, in the second quarter the rating agency downgraded it to B with a negative outlook, and now it downgraded it to B-, and kept the negative outlook.
Arguing that the country's fiscal and financial profiles have weakened, Standard & Poor´s downgraded from B to B- the negative outlook for Nicaragua's foreign currency debt.
The negative outlook reflects a greater than one of every three probabilities of a downgrade in the next 12 months because of possible additional pressure on the balance of payments or the domestic financial system in dollar terms, given the government's limited foreign exchange financing options.
S & P has downgraded the debt rating from B + to B, arguing that the escalation of the internal conflict has weakened governance, and the rating could be reduced again in the next 12 months if the violence continues to rise.
From a press release by Standard & Poor´s:
Heightened domestic conflict and ongoing violence have weakened governability and impaired the predictability and effectiveness of policy implementation in Nicaragua, in our view.
Moody's has changed the rating outlook from positive to stable, citing the economic impact of the rupture of the consensus model for a national dialogue.
From a statement issued by Moody's:
New York, June 13, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today changed Nicaragua's rating outlook to stable from positive and affirmed its B2 long-term issuer ratings.
Standard & Poor's has maintained the rating of B+ for long-term sovereign debt, arguing that economic growth is stable and the burden of public debt remains moderate.
The rating agency highlights growth at rates of 5% achieved in the last five years, but estimates that in 2017-18 this will fall to 4.5%, partly due to the effect of a reduction in financial flows from the program with Petrocaribe.
From a statement issued by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-23 August 2017: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nicaragua's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'B+' with a Stable Outlook.
Fiscal stability and the expectation that the necessary measures will be taken to mitigate the impact of eventual external shocks, was the justification given by Moody's when deciding to raise the outlook for the debt rating from stable to positive.
From a report by Moody´s:
Global Credit Research - 20 Jul 2017
New York, July 20, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed the government of Nicaragua's B2 foreign and local currency issuer ratings and changed the outlook to positive from stable.
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Brazilian construction firm from B- to CC, arguing that the revelations about bribes "have exacerbated its reputational risk".
From a press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-Sao Paulo-17 January 2017: This is a correction of a release published Jan. 17, 2017. It corrects the rating for the USD800 million senior unsecured notes due 2023.
Moody's warns of the risks faced by banks in Central America in the context of a rising trend in interest rates and dollarization of their loan portfolios.
From a report by Moody's:
Mexico, September 14, 2016 -- Banks in Central America face rising asset risks as interest rates look set to rise in the region, pushing up debt service costs for borrowers, according to a report from Moody's Investors Service.
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