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After 14 months of socio-political crisis in Nicaragua, companies in the country face a reduction in consumption and investment, as well as the impact on national economic activity of rising unemployment.
According to studies conducted by the Consejo Superior de la Empresa Privada (COSEP) and the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUNIDES), the local economy faces a contraction in economic activity that continues to deepen, prevailing uncertainty and distrust in consumers and investors.
Guatemala and El Salvador are the Central American economies that have registered the lowest levels of economic growth, when this is associated with the size of their public sector.
Panama, Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica are the countries that would be obtaining exceptional results in their economic growth from the average expenditure of the region during 2011 to 2018, which could be associated with the investment made in past periods, informed the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi).
Hotels and restaurants, Construction and Commerce, were the sectors that explained most of the -3.8% year-on-year variation in Gross Domestic Product last year.
In 2018, the dynamics of the Nicaraguan economy were affected by adverse events, with a change in the average growth path recorded in recent years. Thus, the results of the preliminary estimate of GDP indicate that the performance of economic activity in 2018 registered a 3.8% decrease, reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
The sustained rise in imports of dairy products, coupled with drought in different parts of the country, explains the reduction of more than 50% reported in milk production in the Dominican Republic.
Directors of the Dominican Association of Milk Producers (Aproleche), estimate that between 2012 and 2018, the purchase of liquid milk abroad went from 900 thousand liters to 40 million liters.
If the country does not provide an early solution to the socio-political crisis it has been going through since April 2018, it is projected that the economy could decline between 7% and 11% during 2019.
The Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), presented the "Informe de Coyuntura" (Situation Report), which explains that if the socio-political crisis continues this year there will be a greater fall in the economy compared to the 4% reported in 2018.
Because of the political crisis that began in Nicaragua in April, during the third quarter of last year the country's GDP fell by 4.5% compared to the same period in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that in the third quarter of 2018, the economy registered a 4.8 percent year-on-year decline and a 0.5 percent annual average reduction.
The fall in international grain prices in recent years has increasingly affected producers in the region, who at current prices do not even reach the production costs.
Since years ago, international sugar prices have reported a clear downward trend, and in the last twelve months the quintal price registered a fall of 23%.
Because of the political crisis that Nicaragua has experienced since April, during the second quarter of the year the country's GDP decreased by 4.4% compared to the same period in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that in the second quarter of 2018, the Nicaraguan economy recorded a year-on-year decline of 4.4 percent and an average annual growth of 1.6 percent in the original data, according to the preliminary estimate of quarterly GDP. With this result, economic activity fell 0.9 percent in the first half.
Despite the complex situation, pig farmers in Nicaragua estimate that they will achieve their goal of producing and marketing 13,600 tons of pork this year.
According to representatives from the Nicaraguan Chamber of Producers (Caniporc), so far this year pork consumption went down by only 1% and the value of each live animal decreased by 5%, and the reason for this is the social and political crisis that has been affecting the country for more than five months.
Five months after the socio-political crisis in Nicaragua, it is estimated that this year Gross Domestic Product will contract between by 2.1% and 4%, in real terms.
The Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUNIDES) has updatedits estimates on the economic and social impact of the crisis in 2018, in which it poses a first scenario that assumes that people and companies will adapt to a "new reality". In this context, the losses in added value would amount to $946 million.
Businesses in the sector foresee a decline during the 2018-2019 harvest, attributed to the drought and the illegal invasion of lands resulting from the political crisis that Nicaragua is experiencing.
According to statistics from the National Committee of Sugar Producers (CNPA), during the last two harvests the country reported a sustained increase in its sugar production. Figures for the 2017-2018 harvest show there was production of 1.8 million tons which represents an increase of 12% compared to the previous cycle.
Using resources from the European Union and the Nicaraguan government, a program will be financed which focuses on the transformation of the cattle value chain and the implementation of a sustainable production model.
The institutions promoting the program reported that "... through this program, the European Union (EU) is making available to the GRUN a total of €20 million, which will be administered by the Spanish Agency for International Cooperation for the Development (AECID), which is also contributing 500 thousand euros, and there will also be a counterpart contribution from the Government of €1.2 million."
The new technical regulation that will apply as of July 2018 in Nicaragua, establishes methods of analysis, sampling, packaging and labeling of green robusta coffee for export and commercialization.
Sincethe coffee law was amended in May 2017to incorporate extensive planting of the Robusta variety in certain areas of the country, cultivation of this type of grain has been growing. Producers and exporters now have a new technical standard that establishes the methods to be followed in the cultivation of this variety.
Global coffee output for 2017/18 is preliminary estimated at 158.78 million bags, 0.7% higher than last year.
Total production of Arabica is estimated to decrease by 1.1% to 97.32 million bags compared to 98.42 million bags last year, as lower production of Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals are only partially offset by increases in Other Milds. An increase of 3.7% is expected in Robustas, due largely to a rebound in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer.
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