It is estimated that in the context of the spread of covid-19 in the country, eight out of ten companies in the industrial sector have reduced their sales and six out of ten have seen their distribution capacity affected.
The Chamber of Industry of Guatemala (CIG) conducted a survey to calculate the impact of the current health crisis on the operations of the country's industrial companies. One of the most worrisome results was that most companies have reduced their cash flow.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Between February and May of this year the Consumer Confidence Index registered a 40% drop, which was caused by the health and economic crisis resulting from the covid-19 outbreak.
According to the Consumer Confidence survey conducted by the University of Costa Rica, between August and November 2019 the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose from 28.5 to 32.3, however, by May of this year it had fallen to 19.7.
After the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 19% drop in March 2020, in April the situation worsened with a -43% year-on-year variation, a drop that agrees with the advance of the health crisis in the country.
In April 2020, the level of the Economic Activity Confidence Index stood at 32.64 points, 43.25% lower than that recorded in March 2020 (57.52 points) and fell by 26.83% compared to April 2019 (44.61 points), reported the Bank of Guatemala.
When the country's authorities begin to lift the restrictions that have been taken to prevent the spread of covid-19, it is predicted that in the meat sector, sales of chicken could contract by 2%.
Through a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, variations in household demand for different goods and services can be projected as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the countries of the region are lifted.
Once the local economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, it is estimated that Guatemalan households will have reduced their demand for car insurance by 7%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to forecast the variations in demand by Guatemalan households for different goods and services as the most critical phases of the spread of the covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
When the local economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, demand for health insurance is estimated to fall by 7%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations in demand by Salvadoran households for different goods and services as the most critical phases of the spread of the covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
Businessmen in Guatemala estimate that patients who visit the country with the aim of buying medical treatment will take between 9 months and a year to regain confidence in making the trip.
The sector is practically paralyzed, since due to the covid-19 outbreak worldwide, several countries have decided to close their borders and air terminals, and airlines are keeping their units on the ground.
When the local economy begins to return to the new normality, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, it is estimated that the demand for electricity by Honduran households will have decreased by 11%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations in demand by Honduran households for different goods and services as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
Given the health crisis, the food and beverage sector would be partly affected by the drop in the production of soft drinks and alcoholic beverages and the decline in sales of fish and seafood preparations.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", prepared by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the degree of impact that the crisis will have on companies, depending on the country, sector or economic activity, during the coming months.
Once the economy begins to return to normal, as the phases of the pandemic are overcome in the country, it is estimated that the demand for meals outside the home will have decreased by 13%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by CentralAmericaData's Trade Intelligence Unit, variations in demand by Nicaraguan households for different goods and services can be projected as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and restrictive measures are lifted in the country.
Managers of Costa Rica's financial institutions predict that due to the health crisis the country is going through, the demand for credit from companies and families will continue to fall in the coming months.
Figures from the Central Bank of Costa Rica state that between March 2019 and the same month in 2020, the balance of money lent by public and private banks to companies and families decreased by 2.3%, from $28,559 million to $27,908 million. See full data (in Spanish).
Once the economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, household consumption patterns will have changed significantly.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations in Panamanian household demand for different goods and services as the most critical phases in the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
New health and hygiene protocols in the establishments and the commitment to attract national tourists in an environment where short trips will be preferred, are some of the trends predicted in the new "normality" that will come after the quarantine period.
Given the quarantines decreed by most governments worldwide, it is anticipated that the habits of tourists will change dramatically in the short and medium term, as the crisis of covid-19 will leave consequences among consumers.
The sharp drop expected in the income of the tourism industry in Central America will be partially explained by the decline in hotel activity and tourist marinas.
The "Information System for the Impact Analysis of Covid-19 on Business", developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, measures the impact that the crisis will have on companies according to their sector or economic activity, considering various scenarios for the coming months.
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