The Confidence Index in Economic Activity in Guatemala registered a year-on-year fall of 33% in July of this year and in August a 20% drop was registered, compared to the same period last year.
The most recent EconomicExpectations Survey prepared by Banco de Guatemala, forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 3.90% for August, 4.01% for September and 4.03% for October 2018.As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.07% and 4.22%, in that order.In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (August 2019 and August 2020) the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.07% and 4.33%, respectively.
During the second quarter of 2018 the constant Gross Domestic Product totaled $10,084 million, 3% more than was reported in the same period in 2017.
The activities related to the domestic economy that performed positively in this quarter were: transport and communications, financial intermediation, trade, government services, health and education.On the other hand, construction activities, mines and quarries, hotels and restaurants, other community and personal activities presented negative behavior,informed the Comptroller General of the Republic.
Arguing that the behavior of the main indicators of the local economy and the current growth conditions are congruent, Banco de Guatemala has decided to keep the monetary policy rate as it is.
Banco de Guatemala reported that based on a comprehensive analysis of the external and internal economic situation, after evaluating the Inflation Risks Balance, it has decided to maintain the level of the leading interest monetary policy rate at 2.75%.
In the first seven months of the year, the country received $849 million in the form of remittances sent from abroad, registering an increase of 8% compared to the same period in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that remittances totaled 124.4 million dollars in July (US $122.4 million in July 2017), which meant a year-on-year variation of 1.6%.
After May, economic activity in Panama recorded a slight year-on-year increase of 1.4%, in June it reported an increase of almost 3% compared to the same month in 2017.
From a statement issued by the General Comptroller of the Republic:
The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) in the Republic, for January-June 2018, grew by 3.21%, compared to the same period in 2017.The interannual monthly variation in June 2018 was 2.86%, compared to the same month in the previous year.
In the first half of the year, foreign direct investment flows received by the country totaled $620 million, 5.8% more than in the same period in 2017.
The main source of financing of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) was reinvested earnings.By origin of investment, it was observed that most came from North America, with 37.6% of the total, followed by Europe with 20.3%.
Due to the crisis that has been unfolding in the country since April, the ECLAC has reduced its growth projection for the Nicaraguan economy from 5% to 0.5% this year.
Laprensa.com.ni reports that "...Before the crisis, the ECLAC placed Nicaragua among the fiveLatin Americaneconomieswith the highest growth for this year, with an expansion of GDP of 5% after having grown 4.9% in 2017."
From June of this year, the index of economic activity fell by 12% with respect to the same month in 2017, explained mainly by the performance of the sectors of agriculture, health and education.
The political and social crisis that began in mid-April continues to take its toll on the Nicaraguan economy. In line with the loss of more than 86,000 jobs registered in the last four months, at the end of June economic activity fell by 12% in year-on-year terms.See "Employment: Easier to destroy than create"
In June of this year, the IMAE in Honduras registered an interannual increase of almost 4%, explained for the third consecutive month by the activities of Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds, and the Manufacturing Industry.
From a report issued by the Central Bank of Honduras:
In line with the trend seen since last year, in July 2018, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity in Guatemala fell by 33% with respect to the same month in 2017.
The latest EconomicExpectations Survey prepared by Banco de Guatemala forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.19% for July, 4.22% for August and 4.36% for September 2018.As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.45% and 4.43%, in that order.In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (July 2019 and July 2020), the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.26% and 4.36%, respectively.
In the first six months of the year, the country received $725 million in remittances from abroad, which is a 9% increase compared to the same period in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that remittances totaled 115.2 million dollars in June (US $111.1 million in June 2017), which meant an increase of 3.7 percent.
S & P has downgraded the debt rating from B + to B, arguing that the escalation of the internal conflict has weakened governance, and the rating could be reduced again in the next 12 months if the violence continues to rise.
From a press release by Standard & Poor´s:
Heightened domestic conflict and ongoing violence have weakened governability and impaired the predictability and effectiveness of policy implementation in Nicaragua, in our view.
According to the Central Bank, Costa Rica's economy could grow 3.2% this year, less than was initially expected, and the fiscal deficit could reach 7.2% of GDP.
In its revision of the Macroeconomic Program 2018-2019, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) foresees that this year's GDP growth will be 3.2%, below what was estimated in the Program presented at the beginning of the year, when the monetary authority projected growth of 3.6% at the end of the year.
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