After reporting a 2% drop in October from the previous month, in November the Economic Activity Confidence Index continued to decline, registering a 6% decrease.
The Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.91% for November, 4.75% for December 2020 and 4.60% for January 2021, according to the Bank of Guatemala's report.
After the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 19% drop in March 2020, in April the situation worsened with a -43% year-on-year variation, a drop that agrees with the advance of the health crisis in the country.
In April 2020, the level of the Economic Activity Confidence Index stood at 32.64 points, 43.25% lower than that recorded in March 2020 (57.52 points) and fell by 26.83% compared to April 2019 (44.61 points), reported the Bank of Guatemala.
In February 2020, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported a 64% growth compared to the same month last year, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Businessmen forecast an inflationary rhythm of 3.25% for February, 3.36% for March and 3.38% for April 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.16% and 4.20%, in that order.
In January, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 39% increase compared to the same month in 2019, reinforcing the upward trend that has been reported since July 2019.
An inflationary rhythm of 3.72% is forecast for January, 3.71% for February and 3.84% for March 2020.
Alejandro Giammattei, Guatemala's new president, is hosting a country with weak institutions, legal uncertainty and a business sector that is asking for a less "hostile" environment for new investments.
A few days before the new government takes office in Guatemala, the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 21% year-on-year growth.
Figures from the Bank of Guatemala indicate that in December 2019 the country's Confidence in Economic Activity Index (Icae) reported a considerable increase compared to the same month in 2018, a performance that reinforces the upward trend it has been registering since July last year.
The electoral triumph of Alejandro Giammattei and the appointments he is making in his cabinet to assume next January 14, are the main reasons that explain the upturn that has had business confidence since July.
In November of this year, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported a 28% growth with respect to the same month in 2018, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Businessmen forecast an inflationary rhythm of 3.34% and 3.54% for November and December 2019, respectively, as well as 3.69% for January 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 3.98% and 4.27%, in that order, explains the report of the Banco de Guatemala.
In October of this year the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported an 18% growth with respect to the same month in 2018, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Entrepreneurs forecast an inflation rate of 3.50% for October, 3.81% for November and 3.94% for December 2019. For December 2020 and 2021, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.32% and 4.28%, in that order, reported the Banco de Guatemala.
After registering a 6% year-on-year rise in August, in September the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala showed a 7% variation.
According to the last report of the Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.08% is forecast for September, of 4.22% for October and of 4.29% for November 2019. Regarding December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.43% and 4.46%, in that order, reported the Central Bank of Guatemala.
After registering year-on-year rises of 7% and 6% in July and August, respectively, in September the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala showed a 7% variation.
An inflationary rhythm of 4.08% is forecast for September, of 4.22% for October and of 4.29% for November 2019. Regarding December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.43% and 4.46%, in that order, the report of the Banco de Guatemala needs.
Two weeks before the General Elections in Guatemala, the business sector perceives a favorable environment for business because of the behavior of the country's economic activity.
According to the Business Perception Survey, compiled by the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial and Financial Associations (Cacif), 67% of the consulted businessmen foresee stability in employment and 50% thought that there is a stable economic environment for companies. These expectations of the private sector are reported in the final stretch of the country's electoral process.
After March 2019, the Confidence in Economic Activity Index reported a 6% y-o-y decrease, in April the variation was of 4% regarding the same month of 2018.
The report of the Banco de Guatemala explains that during April "... an inflationary rhythm of 4.26% was forecast for April and of 4.32% for May as well as for June 2019. Regarding December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.38% and 4.46%, in that order. In addition, for a 12 and 24-month horizon (April 2020 and April 2021) the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.32% and 4.30%, respectively.
For the Guatemalan private sector, the uncertainty that prevails in the country is because the details of the government programs of the political parties that will participate in the General Elections are not known until now.
Last March 18 officially began the political campaign for the General Elections in the country, but the legal inconveniences faced by some candidates for the presidency cause doubts in the future, since there is no clarity of who will participate in the process and the government plans of the candidates are not known in depth.
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