After reporting a 2% drop in October from the previous month, in November the Economic Activity Confidence Index continued to decline, registering a 6% decrease.
The Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.91% for November, 4.75% for December 2020 and 4.60% for January 2021, according to the Bank of Guatemala's report.
After the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 19% drop in March 2020, in April the situation worsened with a -43% year-on-year variation, a drop that agrees with the advance of the health crisis in the country.
In April 2020, the level of the Economic Activity Confidence Index stood at 32.64 points, 43.25% lower than that recorded in March 2020 (57.52 points) and fell by 26.83% compared to April 2019 (44.61 points), reported the Bank of Guatemala.
In February 2020, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported a 64% growth compared to the same month last year, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Businessmen forecast an inflationary rhythm of 3.25% for February, 3.36% for March and 3.38% for April 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.16% and 4.20%, in that order.
During January in Honduras, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a slight increase of 9% compared to what was reported at the end of 2019.
Informants said that the main factors that could influence the behavior of inflation during 2020 are: the increase in fuel prices and its impact on electricity rates, as well as price increases in some food and certain raw materials, explains a report by the Central Bank of Honduras.
In January, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 39% increase compared to the same month in 2019, reinforcing the upward trend that has been reported since July 2019.
An inflationary rhythm of 3.72% is forecast for January, 3.71% for February and 3.84% for March 2020.
Because the private sector believes that the conditions to formalize companies and generate new jobs do not exist, the employers are urging the government to declare an emergency due to the unemployment situation.
It is estimated that only 33,000 new jobs were generated in the country last year, which includes jobs in companies and government institutions.
During December 2019 in Honduras, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 33% decrease with respect to what was reported at the end of 2018.
Analysts said they expect that the slower evolution of the world economy and adverse weather conditions could continue to affect the growth of the Honduran economy, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
Alejandro Giammattei, Guatemala's new president, is hosting a country with weak institutions, legal uncertainty and a business sector that is asking for a less "hostile" environment for new investments.
A few days before the new government takes office in Guatemala, the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 21% year-on-year growth.
Figures from the Bank of Guatemala indicate that in December 2019 the country's Confidence in Economic Activity Index (Icae) reported a considerable increase compared to the same month in 2018, a performance that reinforces the upward trend it has been registering since July last year.
The electoral triumph of Alejandro Giammattei and the appointments he is making in his cabinet to assume next January 14, are the main reasons that explain the upturn that has had business confidence since July.
In November of this year, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported a 28% growth with respect to the same month in 2018, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Businessmen forecast an inflationary rhythm of 3.34% and 3.54% for November and December 2019, respectively, as well as 3.69% for January 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 3.98% and 4.27%, in that order, explains the report of the Banco de Guatemala.
Between the third and fourth quarters of the year, the Global Expectations Index reported a 6% increase in Costa Rica, but still remains in pessimistic territory.
The expectations index improved in all sectors during the fourth quarter, with the services and manufacturing indexes strengthening the most compared to three months ago. Manufacturing and trade activities surpass the pessimistic terrain in which they were the previous quarter, reported the University of Costa Rica (UCR).
In the third quarter of the year, the Business Climate Index dropped 8% with respect to what was reported from April to June 2019.
The Business Climate Index fell from 61.7 in April-June 2019 to 57.3 in July-September 2019. This decrease was because of a drop in the balance of opinion of businessmen on the Dominican economy, the international, the branch and the climate for investment, explains the report of the Association of Industries of the Dominican Republic (AIRD).
For the IMF, the Salvadoran authorities are dealing firmly with crime and corruption and are beginning to improve the business environment in order to support economic growth.
In 2019, real GDP growth is expected to be 2.5% as a result of the solid confidence of the business sector, reported the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after its visit to El Salvador.
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