In April the Central Bank of Costa Rica predicted that by the end of 2020 GDP would fall by 3.6%, but due to the current health and economic crisis scenario the projections worsened, and now a 5% contraction in production is estimated.
The effect of the current international situation would be transmitted to the national economy through various channels: growth in trading partners, lower prices of raw materials and financial conditions, according to an official report.
During the next few months, it is estimated that sales of lotions and perfumes in the Salvadoran market will decrease by about 6%, compared to the levels reported before the crisis.
For the next few months, it is estimated that in the Guatemalan market, sales of men's pants will decrease by about 5% from the levels reported prior to the change in the business scenario.
Uncertainty over a possible second wave of covid-19 cases globally will prevent Salvadoran textile industry exports from recovering for the rest of 2020.
Official data show that from January to May 2020, El Salvador's exports in the textile and clothing sector amounted to $619 million, an amount that is 42% lower than the $1,072 million registered in the same period in 2019.
As authorities remove restrictions on restaurants to prevent the spread of covid-19, demand for out-of-home food service is predicted to fall by about 14%.
Through a demand-income sensitivity model, developed by CentralAmericaData's Trade Intelligence Unit, it is possible to project the variations that household demand for different goods and services will undergo as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the countries of the region are lifted.
As most of the quarantine measures that have been imposed to prevent the spread of covid-19 virus are removed, it is projected that detergent sales could fall by about 3%.
Using a demand-income sensitivity model developed by CentralAmericaData's Trade Intelligence Unit, variations in household demand for different goods and services can be projected as the most critical phases in the spread of covid-19 are overcome and mobility restrictions are lifted in the countries of the region.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
When the country's authorities begin to relax the restrictions that have been taken to prevent the spread of covid-19, it is predicted that rotisserie chicken sales could fall by 2%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Commercial Intelligence Area of CentralAmericaData, variations in household demand for different goods and services can be projected as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the countries of the region are lifted.
When the country's authorities begin to relax the restrictions that have been taken to prevent the spread of covid-19, it is predicted that laundry detergent sales could drop by 4%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by CentralAmericaData's Trade Intelligence Unit, variations in household demand for different goods and services can be projected as the most critical phases in the spread of covid-19 are overcome and mobility restriction measures are lifted in the countries of the region.
Because of the restriction measures decreed in the country due to the covid-19 outbreak, between March and April of this year the average hotel rate for two people decreased from $160 to $120.
According to the "Monetary Policy Report" prepared by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), in the face of the health crisis, hotel occupancy in the country has plummeted in the first four months of the year, from 90% in January to 15% in April.
When the country's authorities begin to lift the restrictions that have been taken to prevent the spread of covid-19, it is predicted that in the meat sector, sales of chicken could contract by 2%.
Through a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, variations in household demand for different goods and services can be projected as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the countries of the region are lifted.
Once the local economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, it is estimated that Guatemalan households will have reduced their demand for car insurance by 7%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to forecast the variations in demand by Guatemalan households for different goods and services as the most critical phases of the spread of the covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
Given the threat of a deepening economic recession in the country, resulting from the outbreak of covid-19, it is estimated that by the end of the year the open unemployment rate could rise to 9.2%.
In the context of the health crisis, an increase in poverty levels will also be reported, and the GDP per capita indicator will decrease, explains the "Informe de Coyuntura, Abril 2020", prepared by the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides).
Once the Honduran economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, it is estimated that household demand for flavored soft drinks will have decreased by 2%.
Through a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations that the demand of Honduran households for different goods and services will undergo as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
When the local economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, demand for health insurance is estimated to fall by 7%.
Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations in demand by Salvadoran households for different goods and services as the most critical phases of the spread of the covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.
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