Although expectations for the end of 2021 are good for the Guatemalan economy, there is uncertainty regarding what will happen in the second part of the year, as the vaccination process is progressing slowly.
According to World Bank forecasts published in June 2021, it is expected that at the end of the year, Guatemala's Gross Domestic Product will grow 3.6% year-on-year. See report "Global Economic Prospects".
Because the level of rainfall forecast for the winter is expected to favor livestock activity, entrepreneurs in the sector expect local production of meat and milk to grow during 2021.
Experts predict that this year's winter conditions will lead to an increase in green pasture for cattle. This factor will boost milk and meat production.
After foreign exchange revenues from tourism in Costa Rica fell from $4 billion to $1.343 billion between 2019 and 2020 due to the closure of borders and airports, it is projected that the sector will remain in the red during 2021.
March 2020, when most countries began to register Covid-19 cases, was the month in which revenues began to fall. Statistics from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) show that in this context of pandemic, between April and October of last year, the Costa Rican tourism industry practically did not earn any foreign currency.
According to the IMF, the local economy is well positioned to support the recovery and overcome the deterioration of social indicators, which worsened due to the pandemic caused by the Covid-19 outbreak.
Strong remittances, pandemic-resilient productive specialization, and unprecedented economic policy support limited economic contraction in 2020, while the outlook for 2021 benefits from additional U.S. fiscal stimulus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported.
produce between 8 and 9 million pairs of shoes, a figure that would double that reported in 2020 and generate revenues for companies of more than $120 million.
In the first weeks of the year, shoe sales in the Nicaraguan market showed dynamism, as more than one million pairs were sold due to the start of the school year, according to executives of the Nicaraguan Chamber of Leather and Footwear (Camcunic).
The World Bank predicts that by the end of this year Panama and the Dominican Republic will be the economies of the region that will grow the most, and the countries that will report the lowest increases in their production will be Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
After the region's economies were considerably affected in 2020 by the sanitary crisis generated by the Covid-19 outbreak, the outlook of international organizations for 2021 is encouraging.
Central America must be the driving force behind a globally accepted document that will be vital for the recovery of the global economy and tourism in particular.
The generation of a physical or digital document of global acceptance (like national passports) that certifies that the bearer has been vaccinated against Covid-19 will facilitate the movement of people that has been severely restricted as part of the measures adopted by governments, both locally and internationally, to contain the pandemic.
The construction sector forecasts that in 2021 investments will increase by 2.1% with respect to what was reported in 2020, a rise that would be explained by the execution of public infrastructure projects.
According to the Economic Report prepared by the Costa Rican Chamber of Construction, the growth of the construction activity will be boosted in 2021 by the recovery of public works.
Currently, financial leasing operations in Guatemala amount to $1,290 million, but with the approval of the new legal framework the portfolio could increase in the medium term between $1,677 million and $1,935 million.
The government and businessmen agree that 2021 will be a good year for construction, as the Bank of Guatemala projects that the sector will grow by 7.5%, while the builders' guild estimates that activity will increase by 3%.
According to official forecasts made by the central bank, it is estimated that during 2020, economic activity in the construction sector fell by 7.4% due to the crisis caused by the outbreak of covid-19.
After a 50% year-on-year fall in new car sales in 2020, Panamanian businessmen expect a 25% increase in the number of units sold in the local market by 2021.
The covid-19 outbreak generated a health and economic crisis that severely affected the automotive industry.
The World Bank has improved economic growth projections for all Central American economies for 2021, with Honduras, El Salvador and Panama having the most promising forecasts.
In June 2020, when the health and economic effects of the pandemic that caused the covid-19 outbreak were beginning to be reported, the World Bank predicted that in 2021 Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product would decrease by -1.6%, but in a January 2021 publication it projected that the drop would be -0.9%.
Due to Costa Rica's estimated average hotel occupancy rate of 52% by 2020, well below the 95% recorded at the end of 2019, businessmen in the sector expect that in this context of crisis there will be no peak seasons next year.
The tourism sector is one of the hardest hit by the economic crisis generated by the outbreak of covid-19, because mobility restrictions, the closure of air terminals and the fear of tourists to be infected, have influenced the drastic fall in tourism activity.
Due to the economic crisis it is estimated that by the end of 2020 Panama will have 400 thousand new unemployed and the unemployment rate will climb to 25%, assuming that the country generates between 45 thousand to 50 thousand jobs annually, it will take about eight years for the recovery to take place.
The outbreak of covid-19 caused a serious economic crisis in the country, since due to the spread of the disease the authorities have decreed severe home quarantines, mobility restrictions and have limited some productive activities.
Food, beverages, liquor, household and personal care items are the categories that are expected to drive the rise in consumption levels in Central America during the last month of the year.
Despite the fact that 2020 has been a complex year for all business sectors, due to the covid-19 outbreak that generated a serious economic crisis in all Central American countries, sales are expected to increase considerably in December.
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