Currently, financial leasing operations in Guatemala amount to $1,290 million, but with the approval of the new legal framework the portfolio could increase in the medium term between $1,677 million and $1,935 million.
The government and businessmen agree that 2021 will be a good year for construction, as the Bank of Guatemala projects that the sector will grow by 7.5%, while the builders' guild estimates that activity will increase by 3%.
According to official forecasts made by the central bank, it is estimated that during 2020, economic activity in the construction sector fell by 7.4% due to the crisis caused by the outbreak of covid-19.
After a 50% year-on-year fall in new car sales in 2020, Panamanian businessmen expect a 25% increase in the number of units sold in the local market by 2021.
The covid-19 outbreak generated a health and economic crisis that severely affected the automotive industry.
The World Bank has improved economic growth projections for all Central American economies for 2021, with Honduras, El Salvador and Panama having the most promising forecasts.
In June 2020, when the health and economic effects of the pandemic that caused the covid-19 outbreak were beginning to be reported, the World Bank predicted that in 2021 Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product would decrease by -1.6%, but in a January 2021 publication it projected that the drop would be -0.9%.
Due to Costa Rica's estimated average hotel occupancy rate of 52% by 2020, well below the 95% recorded at the end of 2019, businessmen in the sector expect that in this context of crisis there will be no peak seasons next year.
The tourism sector is one of the hardest hit by the economic crisis generated by the outbreak of covid-19, because mobility restrictions, the closure of air terminals and the fear of tourists to be infected, have influenced the drastic fall in tourism activity.
Due to the economic crisis it is estimated that by the end of 2020 Panama will have 400 thousand new unemployed and the unemployment rate will climb to 25%, assuming that the country generates between 45 thousand to 50 thousand jobs annually, it will take about eight years for the recovery to take place.
The outbreak of covid-19 caused a serious economic crisis in the country, since due to the spread of the disease the authorities have decreed severe home quarantines, mobility restrictions and have limited some productive activities.
Food, beverages, liquor, household and personal care items are the categories that are expected to drive the rise in consumption levels in Central America during the last month of the year.
Despite the fact that 2020 has been a complex year for all business sectors, due to the covid-19 outbreak that generated a serious economic crisis in all Central American countries, sales are expected to increase considerably in December.
Due to the suspension of several projects and the political, economic and fiscal situation in Costa Rica, it is expected that the economic activity of the construction industry will close the year in the red and for 2021 a scenario of much uncertainty is predicted.
The country's chicken producers estimate that they will close 2020 with a 1.3% decrease in sales, a drop that would be explained by the drop in orders from hotels and restaurants, establishments that operate partially due to the low presence of tourists.
The spread of covid-19 caused considerable damage to the tourism and restaurant sector, since the country's air connection was interrupted and up to now few tourists remain there.
According to the Central Bank, this year the Costa Rican economy will contract by 4.5%, an estimate that would be optimistic in the current context of fiscal and economic crisis, uncertainty, distrust and lack of decisions in the transcendental issues facing the country.
The recent results of local production and the new estimates of global economic activity have allowed the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) to revise its economic growth projections for the country: the economic contraction for 2020 is expected to moderate to 4.5%, from the 5.0% predicted in the 2020-2021 Macroeconomic Program Review of last July. For 2021, an annual increase in production of 2.6% is projected, a figure 0.3 percentage points (p.p.) higher than that also announced in July.
According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
Agriculture, Financial and Insurance Activities, and Real Estate Activities, are the sectors that in Guatemala and in the context of the economic reopening, have increased their growth forecasts for 2020.
In June, when mobility restrictions were severe in the country due to the outbreak of covid-19, the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) predicted that by the end of the year, Agriculture would grow by 1.1%, Financial and insurance activities by 2% and Real estate activities by 2.8%.
After the Alvarado administration agreed to backtrack on the proposal to negotiate a $1.75 billion loan with the IMF, it is predicted that next year the government will depend on domestic debt to finance its expenditures.
Because of the economic crisis, Foreign Direct Investment flows have practically vanished, and in order to attract the few investments that are projected for next year, countries are expected to compete by offering incentives and aid programs for businesses.
The covid-19 outbreak dissipated the investment intentions of companies globally.
In Guatemala, since October 1st, shopping malls have reactivated their operations, and businessmen in the sector estimate that sales will be 40% of the levels reported before covid-19.
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