The doubts generated by the fiscal proposal with which the Costa Rican government plans to discuss a loan with the IMF, would be the main cause of the recent upward trend in the dollar's price, which as of September 29 was quoted at ₡604,52.
The figures of the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) report an upward trend in recent days, since between September 11 and 29 the price has risen from ₡595,41 to ₡604,33, which is equivalent to a 2% variation.
In the last 15 days, the price per dollar in the wholesale market has risen ₡16, which can be explained by economic uncertainty and people's preference for buying dollars.
According to data from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), a rising trend has been reported in recent weeks. Between March 11 and 26, the price has risen from ₡565.69 to ₡581.77, equivalent to a 3% variation. See full figures (in Spanish).
Between March 23 and 24 the price of the Quetzal vs. Dollar rose from Q7.67 to Q7.75, which is attributed to the expectations of a possible economic slowdown, due to the impact of the Covid-19 crisis.
The expectations of a decrease in the income of family remittances, the time that the international economy could be depressed and the component of fear in the agents, are other causes of the upward pressure that the exchange rate has reported in the last hours.
During 2019, the price of the dollar in Costa Rica registered multiple fluctuations; however, for this 2020, such abrupt variations are not anticipated, since the Central Bank starts the year with reserves close to $9 billion.
Data from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) show that between February 4 and November 28, 2019, the average dollar price in the Costa Rican market fluctuated considerably, ranging from ₡614.31 to ₡562.63.
With the aim of cushioning the fall in the price of the dollar, which between November 5 and 25 was reduced in ₡18,35, in just two days the Central Bank intervened buying more than $30 million.
Of the $41.5 million negotiated at Monex during the November 22 session, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) purchased $36 million, and of the $30.7 million negotiated on November 25, the monetary authority acquired $27 million.
After the exchange rate closed on August 23 at ₡565,88 per dollar in the wholesale market MONEX, an upward trend has been reported since then, reaching ₡581,33 per dollar on September 5, which could be the result of a lower participation of the Central Bank in the exchange market.
Official figures from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) report that between early February and mid-August of this year, there has been a fall of up to 48 colones per dollar, when reporting a drop in the average rate in the wholesale market Monex from ₡613,87 to ₡565,88.
In Costa Rica, the exchange rate closed on Tuesday, August 20th at 565.88 colones per dollar in the wholesale market MONEX, its lowest level since late May last year.
The exchange rate for this Tuesday closed at ₡565.88 in MONEX, its lowest level since late May last year. The current level implies an appreciation of the national currency against the dollar of 7.2% so far this year and -0.6% in the comparison of 12 months.
In Costa Rica, it is expected that the downward trend that has been showing the exchange rate since February will intensify in the coming months, when the $3.580 million begins to enter as a result of the issuance of Eurobonds and loans granted by external entities.
According to data from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), between the beginning of February and July 30 of this year, there has been a fall of up to 44 colones per dollar, reporting a drop in the average rate in the wholesale market Monex from ¢613.87 to ¢570.13.
Although Guatemala and the U.S. have already signed an agreement on migration issues, the exchange rate reported a slight increase and the upward trend is expected to continue over the next few days.
President Trump's warning to Guatemala to impose export tariffs and taxes on remittances and transfers had a direct impact on the exchange market.
Data from the Banco de Guatemala indicate that between July 23 and 29 the price of the Quetzal with respect to the US dollar increased from Q7.64 to Q7.68, which according to the authorities is explained by the uncertainty generated by the possible sanctions against the country.
In Costa Rica, exporters and businessmen of the tourism sector are concerned about the decreasing trend that in recent months has reported the exchange rate, which on July 18 was quoted at ¢575.7 per dollar.
Official figures report that between early February and mid-July of this year, there has been a fall of up to 38 colones per dollar, as the average rate in the Monex wholesale market fell from ¢613.87 to ¢575.69.
For the IMF, recent steps towards a more flexible exchange rate, especially by reducing currency surrender requirements, are positive.
The international organization encouraged the country to a gradual transition to exchange rate flexibility and to continue efforts to strengthen the operational autonomy and governance of the central bank with a perspective of a gradual transition to an inflation targeting regime.
In a competitive scenario for lower costs and higher productivity, devaluation against the Lempira Dollar in Honduras and the Cordoba Dollar in Nicaragua is a factor that could help these economies stay competitive.
In the last five years, the exchange rate in Honduras increased by 17%, from 21.06 Lempiras per U.S. dollar in June 2014 to 24.67 in the same month in 2019.
A greater supply of dollars, high local interest rates and a decrease in imports of durable goods explain the decreasing trend of the exchange rate in Costa Rica, which on June 18 reached the lowest level of the year.
In 2018, the dollar price against the Colon was on an upward trend, however, between February 6 and mid-June of this year, there has been a fall of up to 28 colones per dollar. [GRAFICA caption="Click to interact with graph"]
In Costa Rica, exporters ask the Central Bank to "avoid distortions in the fixing of the exchange rate because of the oversupply of dollars from the sources of financing for the fiscal deficit."
At the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019, the dollar price against the Colon reported an upward trend, but from February 6 to mid-June 11, there has been a fall of up to 26 colones per dollar.
According to official statistics, the volume of exchange market operations in April totaled 924.7 million dollars (US$38.5 million daily average), showing a 0.97% decrease with respect to the level registered in the previous month. Of the total, 500.5 million dollars corresponded to purchasing operations and 424.3 million dollars to sales.
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