For Moody's, the Costa Rican government's response to the Covid-19 crisis will put negative pressure on the country's fiscal profile.
According to the rating agency's analysis, the measures include a three-month moratorium on tax payments, a gradual reduction in corporate social benefit contributions and extended credit lines for the companies most affected by the economic recession.
Although Costa Rica and Nicaragua approved fiscal reforms this year, it is predicted that the expected results in terms of tax collection will not be achieved.
The document "Centroamérica: análisis sintético, por país, del desempeño de la recaudación tributaria en 2019", prepared by the Instituto Centroamericano de Estudios Fiscales (Icefi), explains that, in the case of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, the expected results in terms of improved collection are still in doubt.
In Costa Rica, modifications to the salary tax brackets establish that income of up to $1,394 will be exempt from collection of the tax, and those exceeding $1,394 and up to $2,046 will pay 10%.
On June 25, the Ministry of Finance published in La Gaceta the new income tax brackets to be applied to salaries between July 1 and September 30, 2019.
In Costa Rica, the central government's financial deficit at the fifth month of the year maintained its upward trend as a result of higher interest expenditure and stood at 2.6% of GDP.
While the behavior of the financial deficit is largely due to interest payments, the increase in capital spending also shows significant variation, which translates into better infrastructure conditions needed to facilitate the mobility of goods and people, explains a newsletter from the Costa Rican Ministry of Finance.
For the IMF, the country "may need additional fiscal measures, focused on the short term, to alleviate financing pressures and improve debt dynamics.”
After analyzing the current economic situation in Costa Rica, the directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) commended the recent fiscal reform, which is important to restore fiscal sustainability. They recommended the full and timely implementation of fiscal reform to improve market confidence and reconstitute fiscal space to handle potential shocks and large contingent liabilities, especially in pensions. However, they believe that additional measures may be needed.
It is estimated that construction costs in Costa Rica could increase up to 9% once the new fiscal plan comes into effect.
From next July 1, the collection of value added tax (VAT) will be staggered, because in the first year new buildings will not pay taxes, in the second pay 4%, in the third 8% and in the fourth 13%.
With the new agreement published in the official newspaper La Gaceta, double taxation is avoided and its effects mitigated, as well as helping to eliminate barriers to trade and prevent tax evasion.
On March 21, Law 9644 was published in La Gaceta, corresponding to the agreement between the Republic of Costa Rica and the United Mexican States, which avoids the double taxation of income and wealth taxes.
With the application of the fiscal rule, by 2020 in Costa Rica the growth of current expenditure in the regular budgets of the entities of the Non-Financial Public Sector will not exceed 4.67%.
Although Costa Rica's fiscal reform has already been approved, the IMF proposes raising some taxes as part of an "additional adjustment" to reduce debt and ease financial pressure in the short term.
"... “We are negatively surprised by the simplistic position of the International Monetary Fund that in the absence of money, taxes should be raised, we consider those words unacceptable, because it has been demonstrated in this country that a large part of the deficit is because of the inefficient use of public funds and an issue of state efficiency that does not allow people to become businessmen," said UCCAEP President Gonzalo Delgado."
The financial deficit of the Central Government at the end of last year was equivalent to 6% of the Gross Domestic Product, 1.2% less than originally expected.
According to the authorities, the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP was lower than expected because of the measures taken in terms of collection, expenditure containment and efficiency, and the approval of the Law to Strengthen Public Finances. See "Tax Reform: First Step" and "Ambitious Plan for External Debt"
During the new year, the main challenge for Costa Rica's economy will be to increase above 3%, given that 2018 was marked by a context of fiscal uncertainty and economic slowdown.
According to the Central Bank of Costa Rica, economic growth, measured by the year-on-year variation of the trend cycle of gross domestic product (GDP), slowed last year, and recorded to the third quarter a 2.1% rate (3.2% in the same period of 2017 and 2.8% as the average rate of the two previous quarters).
The economic environment in 2018 was defined by a context of fiscal uncertainty, economic slowdown and greater financial volatility, together with a difficult external environment.
Regarding the fiscal uncertainty occupying a large part of last year's economic agenda, explains the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) which was originated, firstly, in the electoral process that lasted until April, and later in the difficulties faced to achieve an agreement that would help restore the sustainability of public finances in the medium term.
The rating agency reduced the long-term and senior unsecured bond issuer ratings of the Costa Rican government from Ba2 to Ba1 and changed the outlook to negative.
According to Moody's, among the main factors behind the decline is the continued and projected worsening of debt metrics in the back of large deficits despite fiscal consolidation efforts.
Alvarado administration celebrates the approval of the tax reform in Costa Rica by announcing a series of initiatives that include, among other things, a public employment reform Project.
After a year of proceedings in Congress and after having been reviewed by a Constitutional Chamber, the country's Assembly finally approved file 20.580. By endorsing this project, the government intends to strengthen its public finances through changes made to the taxation system.
After Costa Rica's Constitutional Chamber prepared the path for tax reform in the Congress, the dollar's price against the local currency stopped rising, and positive reactions were reported in the risk outlook.
Last November 23rd, Court IV issued its judgment, so the law project has a free way to move forward more quickly during the coming weeks in the Congress.
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