The countries facing the greatest risk of fiscal unsustainability within three years are El Salvador and Honduras, followed by Costa Rica and with less risk, Nicaragua and Panama.
From the "EconomicOutlook"section of the V Report on the State of the Region 2016:
As in old fashioned patriarchal homes, if there must be suffering, the first to suffer are the stepchildren, and only afterwards, if necessary, the legitimate children.
EDITORIAL
The announcement by the Solis administration that it has a plan B in case it does not manage to get legislative approval for the proposed tax increases designed to address the serious and growing fiscal deficit, highlights the existence in Costa Rica of first class citizens and second class citizens.
While the Northern Triangle countries strive to reduce or at least maintain constant levels of debt / GDP, Costa Rica and Panama move further away from fiscal discipline, the former at the greatest pace.
From the introduction of a report entitled "Macrofiscal Profiles : 4th Edition." by the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
In the area of prioritizing economic stability over the availability of resources to finance development, the countries of the northern triangle in Central America, have generally shown a significant effort to reduce or at least maintain constant levels are Debt / GDP and the fiscal deficit, which means that, tacitly, the fiscal rule of zero growth of public debt is being used, despite the impact this may have on the welfare of the people.
Very dark is the future of a country where the rulers do not lift their gaze beyond the few years of the mandate conferred on them by citizens.
EDITORIAL
The president of Costa Rica prefers short-term actions to address the fiscal crisis, while leaving open the tap of privileged public wages by which the future of the nation drowns through.
It is clear that immediate measures need to be taken such as reducing tax evasion and smuggling, and cutting abusive pensions. And it is quite possible that in order to maintain the rule of law taxes also need to be raised. But not closing, RIGHT NOW the growing cascade of state payroll costs that is multiplying every year, means mortgaging the future of the Costa Rican economy. However, president Solis postpones dealing with the topic, because its impact would be felt "only after 15 or 18 years."
"The ongoing economic recovery in the United States and persistence of relatively low oil prices will provide favorable tailwinds to the region.Because of supply constraints, the region is expected to maintain a moderate pace of growth in coming years."
From the press release by IMF:
Central bank governors, finance ministers, and banking superintendents of Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, and senior IMF officials met in El Salvador on July 23-24 to review the economic outlook for the region and strategies to strengthen policy frameworks and raise inclusive growth. The regional conference saw the participation of the President of El Salvador, Salvador Sánchez-Cerén; Governor of the Bank of México, Agustín Carstens; Director of the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis, Laura van Geest; and former Finance Minister of Perú, Luis Carranza.
"Fiscal accounts for 2015 anticipate an additional burden of concerns about the sustainability of the public finances of the governments of the region."
From a report entitled "Macrofiscal Profiles: 3rd Edition" by the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
The close of fiscal year 2014 has left more uncertainties than certainties in the current panorama for Central America.
With the recent consent given by the Banguat for a new issuance of new debt totalling $1,917 million to finance the 2015 budget, the fiscal deficit could exceed 2.5% of GDP.
The private sector is not looking favorably on the approval given by the Monetary Board of the Bank of Guatemala for the possible issuance of $1.917 million in debt to finance part of the 2015 expenses, because the fiscal deficit would rise to levels above that considered acceptable in economic terms.
Increased borrowing costs, a disincentive to foreign investment and distrust of economic performance, are part of the expected scenario if public debt growth is not controlled.
Prensalibre.com reports that "... The draft budget for 2015 presented by the Ministry of Finance, amounting to $9.250 million (Q71 thousand 840.8 million), contemplates taking on new debt of about $2 billion (Q15 billion), of which $1.6 billion (Q12 thousand 334 million) came from bonds and loans. "
The president of the Bank of Guatemala has stated that in order to sustain the fiscal debt, the tax burden in the Guatemalan economy will have to rise from 11% today to 14%.
An article on Lahora.com.gt reports that, Edgar Barquín president of the Bank of Guatemala, said "... in order to maintain economic stability and ensure social spending for the benefit of the population, the level of taxes needs to rise to 14 percent of GDP this year.
The fiscal deficit of 2.3% proposed for the 2014 budget would cause such an increase in the Guatemalan public that could put monetary policy at risk.
In 2014 Guatemala's public debt will increase and it will be approximately $14.670 billion, equivalent to 25.5% of the country's GDP, explained Edgar Barquín, president of the Bank of Guatemala.
The tax burden was placed at 10.9%, as a result of a tax proceeds of $5.912 million, 8.1% higher than in 2012.
Guatemala's fiscal deficit ended the year at 2.2%, below the Government's initial estimate of 2.5 %.
From a press release by the Ministry of Finance:
The Ministry of Finance reports that at the close of the fiscal accounts for 2013 has been completed and given results that demonstrate the efficient and sound management of fiscal policy. The deficit stood at 2.2% of GDP, a level that fosters macroeconomic stability and economic development. The delay in approving budget support loans and behavior of tax revenues represented adversities which were properly dealt with.
With the exception of Nicaragua, fiscal deficits are growing in the rest of the isthmus, along with public debt.
From the editorial of Central America's Fiscal Lens No. 6:
Central America faces an economic slowdown during 2013: on the isthmus, all countries project growth rates which are lower than last year. The degree of openness of these small open economies makes them susceptible to changes in the international context.
The Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies has highlighted the unsustainability of the fiscal deficit in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.
Pensalibre.com reports that "... according to the results of a report by the Central Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi) submitted yesterday ... Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica find themselves with in unsustainable scenarios regarding public debt in the next few years. "
The Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies has concluded that only the public debts of Panama and Nicaragua, using official data, are sustainable in the medium term.
The main theme of the fifth edition of the 'Lente Fiscal Centroamericano' (Central American Fiscal Lens) is an analysis of debt sustainability in Central America, which depends greatly on interest payments on debt, economic growth, inflation, revaluation and management of the fiscal deficit.
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