After the multi-sector dialogue in Costa Rica was concluded, the main risk qualifiers agree that because the agreements signed to reduce the deficit are not enough, the government should execute its fiscal policies in a timely manner.
Although Costa Rica's fiscal situation was already precarious before the health and economic crisis that led to the covid-19 outbreak began, the scenario started to worsen since March of this year.
The Costa Rican government is facing a complex scenario, since by not achieving consensus to access international loans, it will be forced to seek domestic funding sources, which would put pressure on the exchange rate and interest rates to rise.
The economic crisis that the country is going through due to the outbreak of covid-19 ended up sharpening the country's fiscal situation.
After the UCCAEP in Costa Rica began to negotiate the lifting of the blockades with the self-proclaimed group Rescate Nacional, promoter of the protests, several business chambers distanced themselves from that decision and others have expressed their support.
Given the wave of protests and blockades that have been reported in the country, which arose after it was reported that to access a loan from the International Monetary Fund for $1.75 billion, the government planned to tax financial transactions, raise the tax on the profits of companies and persons, and increase the tax on real estate. The Costa Rican Union of Chambers and Associations of the Private Business Sector (UCCAEP) decided to negotiate the lifting of the blockades.
Faced with increasing chaos in Costa Rica due to demonstrations and blockades, a part of the business sector decided, unilaterally, to negotiate with representatives of the movement that incites to protest, and to reject the official call by the President of the Republic.
After the Alvarado administration agreed to backtrack on the proposal to negotiate a $1.75 billion loan with the IMF, it is predicted that next year the government will depend on domestic debt to finance its expenditures.
In this regional context of economic crisis, falling fiscal revenues and increasing public debt, Costa Rica's debt level is expected to rise to 75% of GDP by 2021, and in the case of El Salvador, the indicator could exceed 85%.
The outbreak of covid-19 in Central America forced the government to declare severe household quarantines and to restrict several economic activities, restrictions that in some cases are still in place after five months of health and economic crisis.
For Moody's, the Costa Rican government's response to the Covid-19 crisis will put negative pressure on the country's fiscal profile.
According to the rating agency's analysis, the measures include a three-month moratorium on tax payments, a gradual reduction in corporate social benefit contributions and extended credit lines for the companies most affected by the economic recession.
Although Costa Rica and Nicaragua approved fiscal reforms this year, it is predicted that the expected results in terms of tax collection will not be achieved.
The document "Centroamérica: análisis sintético, por país, del desempeño de la recaudación tributaria en 2019", prepared by the Instituto Centroamericano de Estudios Fiscales (Icefi), explains that, in the case of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, the expected results in terms of improved collection are still in doubt.
Although the Legislative Assembly approved the issuance of $1.5 billion of debt in the international market, Fitch Ratings believes that in the coming years there could be renewed uncertainty about the sources of financing for the Costa Rican government.
In Costa Rica, modifications to the salary tax brackets establish that income of up to $1,394 will be exempt from collection of the tax, and those exceeding $1,394 and up to $2,046 will pay 10%.
On June 25, the Ministry of Finance published in La Gaceta the new income tax brackets to be applied to salaries between July 1 and September 30, 2019.
The publication details that the tranches will remain like this:
In Costa Rica, the central government's financial deficit at the fifth month of the year maintained its upward trend as a result of higher interest expenditure and stood at 2.6% of GDP.
While the behavior of the financial deficit is largely due to interest payments, the increase in capital spending also shows significant variation, which translates into better infrastructure conditions needed to facilitate the mobility of goods and people, explains a newsletter from the Costa Rican Ministry of Finance.
For the IMF, the country "may need additional fiscal measures, focused on the short term, to alleviate financing pressures and improve debt dynamics.”
After analyzing the current economic situation in Costa Rica, the directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) commended the recent fiscal reform, which is important to restore fiscal sustainability.
It is estimated that construction costs in Costa Rica could increase up to 9% once the new fiscal plan comes into effect.
From next July 1, the collection of value added tax (VAT) will be staggered, because in the first year new buildings will not pay taxes, in the second pay 4%, in the third 8% and in the fourth 13%.
With the new agreement published in the official newspaper La Gaceta, double taxation is avoided and its effects mitigated, as well as helping to eliminate barriers to trade and prevent tax evasion.
On March 21, Law 9644 was published in La Gaceta, corresponding to the agreement between the Republic of Costa Rica and the United Mexican States, which avoids the double taxation of income and wealth taxes.
With the application of the fiscal rule, by 2020 in Costa Rica the growth of current expenditure in the regular budgets of the entities of the Non-Financial Public Sector will not exceed 4.67%.
From the statement of the Ministry of Finance:
March 25, 2019. The Minister of Finance, Rocío Aguilar, reported today that as a result of the application of the fiscal rule, by 2020 the growth of current expenditure in the regular budgets of entities and bodies that are part of the non-financial public sector may not exceed 4.67%.