Arguing that economic strength has weakened as a result of social tensions and is likely to leave a lasting negative impact, the rating agency reduced the country's credit risk rating from B2 to B3.
"The risk of reduced access to official external credit is creating financing challenges and restricting the authorities' ability to support economic activity," the agency's report explains.
The Ministry of Finance issued Treasury Bonds for an amount equivalent to $215 million, of which $155 million was in local currency and $60 million in foreign currency.
The amount awarded represents 8.42% of the total value for which the Global Representative Certificate for Fiscal Year 2020 was issued, including issuances for Small Investors, officials said.
Arguing that the high fiscal deficit is still on an upward trend, the rating agency downgraded the long-term and senior unsecured government bond issuer's note from B1 to B2.
Fiscal deficits averaging more than 6% of GDP since 2015 have led to higher public debt/GDP than its 'B'-rated peers, the rating agency said.
From Moody's statement:
New York, February 10, 2020. Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today downgraded the Government of Costa Rica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings to B2 from B1 and changed its rating outlook to stable from negative.
The rating agency maintained BBB's long-term issuer default rating, but decided to change the risk outlook from stable to negative, arguing that the debt burden will continue to increase in 2020.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The revision of Panama's Outlook to Negative reflects a marked deterioration in fiscal deficits and a significant increase of the government's debt burden, related to accumulation of arrears by previous administration and higher fiscal deficit targets under the modified Fiscal Responsibility Law. In addition, the recent greater-than-anticipated growth deceleration creates additional challenges for fiscal consolidation.
For this year, the government of Guatemala plans to issue an amount equivalent to $2.392 million, which includes new issues and titles that will expire soon and will be awarded again.
According to information from the Directorate of Public Credit, an entity of the Ministry of Finance (Minfin), during 2020 new issues will reach $ 1.845 million and collections or roll over, titles that expire but will be re-issued in the market, will be of $547 million.
To ensure financing for its future functions, the Costa Rican government will seek loans from the World Bank, IDB, CABEI and CAF during 2020, and plans to insist on the approval of $4.5 billion in Eurobonds.
For this year, the Costa Rican government plans to continue negotiating loans for budget support with the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) and the Andean Development Corporation - Latin American Development Bank (CAF).
As a result of the debt that the National Electric Energy Company has with the generators, the business sector fears that in 2020 there will be rationing in the supply of electricity.
For the Honduran Council of Private Enterprise (Cohep), it urges that the Honduran government cancel the debt to the power generators, which totals about $568 million. If the obligations are not paid, severe service rationing could be reported in the middle of next year, according to productive sector forecasts.
Arguing that continuity in economic policies is expected after the change of administration in January 2020, Standard & Poor's maintained the country's credit risk rating at BB-.
From S&P report:
S&P Global Ratings confirmed its long-term sovereign credit ratings of "BB-" in long-term foreign currency and "BB" in Guatemala. The outlook for our long-term ratings remains stable. We also affirmed our short-term 'B' foreign and local currency ratings in Guatemala, the international agency reported.
As of August 2019, the balance of the country's public external debt reached $6,116 million, 3% higher than the amount reported at the close of 2018.
Between December 2018 and August 2019, the ratio of debt to GDP also increased, from 45.4% to 49.3%, according to the most recent report by the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides).
Up to September 2019, the external debt of the public sector reached $7.285 million, a figure that is $93 million lower than that reported at the close of 2018.
At the end of the third quarter, the external debt of the public sector registered a US$7,285.0 million balance, decreasing 1.3% (US$92.9 million) compared to December 2018. This behavior is derived from a net amortization of US$59.5 million (disbursements received for US$149.5 million lower to the principal payments of US$209.0 million), added to a favorable exchange variation that reduced the balance by US$33.4 million (product of the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies).
On November 12, the debt securities were sold in the international market, and at the end of the negotiation, bonds were issued for $1.2 billion maturing in 2031 and $300 million maturing in 2045.
The negotiation of the public debt issued by the government of Costa Rica in the international market closed at noon on November 12, and the yield for those maturing in 2031 was 6.25% and for those expiring in 2045 was 7.25%.
Standard & Poor's warned that if in the coming months the political environment worsens or access to local and external financing deteriorates again, the debt note could suffer further deterioration.
Standard & Poor's has given a B+ rating to the $1.5 billion debt issue that Costa Rica expects to place in the international market in November.
"Global Ratings today assigned a "B+" rating to the prospective reopening of Costa Rica's notes which have a 7.158% rate maturing in 2045 and a "B+" rating in its planned issuance of notes maturing in 2031, the latter issue still does not have a defined trading rate," the rating agency said on November 8.
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