In the context of the pandemic, the Costa Rican economy does not show clear signs of recovery, since during November 2020 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported an annual fall of 6.2%, a decline that is similar to that reported in October when it was 6.3%.
In November, the contraction persisted, in year-on-year terms, in most economic activities.
After production in Nicaragua fell 3.8% in 2018, the IMF estimates that during 2019 the GDP will contract by 5.7%, however, the agency predicts that by 2020 the variation could be only -1.2%.
Real GDP is estimated to have contracted by another 5.7% in 2019 due to the deterioration in aggregate demand, fiscal consolidation and sanctions, the IMF reported after its visit to the country.
In the first months of the year, the pace of economic activity, employment and bank credit have been slowing down, complicating Costa Rica's economic outlook in the coming months.
During the fourth month of the year, economic activity reported an interannual growth of 2.8%, an increase that is below the average growth rate of 3% reported in the last eight years. On top of this awards of bank loans went up 6% with respect to February 2017, half the rate it was growing at a year ago.
In the optimistic scenario, which foresees an end to the crisis in Nicaragua by the end of July, economic growth at the end of 2018 would be only 1.7%, with $400 million losses in added value.
The Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development projects that a possible first scenario would be one where "...the government accepts an early exit negotiated and implemented no later than the end of July, thus achieving a framework of understanding focused on the issues of justice and democratization, putting an end to repression, violence and citizen insecurity."
Due to the crisis in the country, the Central Bank has reduced the estimate of economic growth for this year from the range of 4.5% to 5%, to the range of 3% to 3.5%.
Ovidio Reyes, president of the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN), explained that "... the hardest and most regrettable thing about this is the generation of employment.We are expecting the loss of 58,300 new jobs as a result of the lower economic dynamics."
The Central Bank projects that the Honduran economy will grow between 3.8% and 4.2% this year, and that inflation will remain in the range of between 3% and 5%.
The Central Bank details in its report that "...According to projections for the world and national economy, the BC's forecasts indicate that domestic inflation for 2018-2019 will be within the tolerance range of 4.0% ± 1.0 pp."
The country continues to experience significantly lower growth than its neighboring countries in a context of low investment, high emigration, low competitiveness and political paralysis, and with significant fiscal pressures.
From the IMF report:
Main policy issues
- Raising potential growth will require far-reaching structural reforms to foster competitiveness and investment, supported by measures to reduce crime and regulatory uncertainty.
The country's economy will maintain a minimum growth of 6% in 2016 and in subsequent years will be boosted by the opening of the expanded canal and the drop in fuel prices.
From a press release issued by the IMF:
Panama’s economic performance is expected to remain strong
1. Panama is expected to continue to have one of the strongest growth rates in Latin America, set against a backdrop of low inflation, a stable financial system, and a declining current account deficit.
The Central Bank has confirmed the widespread perception of economic slowdown, with growth forecast for this year falling from 3.4% to 2.8%.
The president of the organization confirmed that an excess of dollars in the foreign exchange market explains the behavior of the exchange rate, which has remained relatively low and stable in recent months.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
With a meager 1.1% growth in economic activity in April, there has now been a total of thirteen consecutive months of economic slowdown.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
In April 2015, domestic production, measured by the numerical trends in the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE), showed a variation of 1.1% (average rate of 1.7%); lower than that observed in the same period last year (4.1%) and than the average rate for 2014 (3.8%). Like the previous month, most industries showed slower growth in productivity and, in particular, manufacturing and agriculture, with a combined weight of 36.2% in the general index, posted declines of 3.3% and 3 , 0%, respectively. To a lesser extent, there was a drop in production of electricity and water (with a weight of 3.0%), which had performed positively the previous year.
Panama's improvement in the availability index of skilled labor, does not respond to an increase in supply, but to a drop in demand because of a slowdown in the economy.
An article on Panamaamerica.com.pa details the results obtained from the Talent Shortage Survey conducted by Manpower, noting that "... Panama has reduced its deficit of talent and skilled labor by 12 percentage points during the last year, going from 58% to 46%, however, the causes are not so encouraging, since the reduction is due to a decrease in the search for personnel by companies. "
The sum of growing state debt, increasing insecurity and lack of government actions aimed at recovering real production, is creating a perfect storm.
"... The Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUSADES) said the country could be entering into a severe financial political and social crisis, if a stop is not put to the uncontrollable debt levels, and if the engines of economic growth keep being smothered. "
The Central Bank has confirmed the decline in domestic demand mainly in agriculture, trade, hotels and restaurants, and transport and storage.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR):
The country's economic activity, measured by the cycle trend of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), recorded a variation of 2.9% in January 2015, 0.4% lower than that observed a year earlier when production grew by 3.3% and 0.7% lower than the average growth of the indicator in 2014 (3.5%).
In the view of industrialists, bureaucracy, excessive tax burden, high electricity rates and insecurity explain the limited performance of the industrial sector during 2014.
From a statement issued by the Salvadoran Association of Industrialists (ASI):
The Salvadoran Association of Industries (ASI) has revealed the results of the industry's performance during 2014, detailing the different productive sectors.
According FUSADES in the last three months the Salvadoran economy continued to show signs of advanced deterioration.
From a statement by the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUSADES):
In the third quarter of 2014 the Salvadoran society has found opportunities for economic dialogue in order to address the challenges of low growth, unemployment, migration, and growing public debt.
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