Reducing costs and barriers to foreign trade in Central American economies is key for the region to overcome the economic recession caused by the outbreak of Covid-19.
A report prepared by the World Bank explains that boosting economic activity and employing a higher percentage of the labor force are objectives that can be achieved through reforms that strengthen the private sector and attract investment.
Arguing that the measures applied by the government directly harm employees and owners of restaurants and bars, a group of businessmen in Guatemala filed a legal action in the Constitutional Court.
Restrictions to productive activity have already been applied for days, since with the purpose of promoting actions aimed at interrupting the epidemiological chain of the Covid-19 disease, on April 17 Ministerial Agreement 87-2021 was published in the Diario de Centroamerica, a regulatory framework that requires a 25% reduction in the capacity of shopping centers, shopping malls, convenience stores and restaurants.
As a result of the restrictions imposed by the Guatemalan Government, local businessmen estimate that sales in the commercial sector last weekend fell by up to 50% and the number of customers in restaurants and shopping centers decreased considerably.
In order to promote actions aimed at interrupting the epidemiological chain of the Covid-19 disease, Ministerial Agreement 87-2021 was published on April 17 in the Diario de Centroamerica, a regulatory framework that requires a 25% reduction in the capacity of shopping malls, commercial centers, convenience stores and restaurants.
The World Bank predicts that by the end of this year Panama and the Dominican Republic will be the economies of the region that will grow the most, and the countries that will report the lowest increases in their production will be Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
After the region's economies were considerably affected in 2020 by the sanitary crisis generated by the Covid-19 outbreak, the outlook of international organizations for 2021 is encouraging.
During 2020 in all countries of the region, construction activity decreased considerably and Central American cement imports stagnated, this adverse scenario is explained by the economic crisis generated by the pandemic.
The construction industry statistics system, which is part of the interactive platform "Construction in Central America" of CentralAmericaData's Business Intelligence area, compiles the most important industry data for each of the countries in the region.
As a result of the economic crisis generated by the pandemic, it is estimated that four out of every five Central American companies were forced to increase their debts in order to sustain their operations.
According to the 2021 Regional Survey on economic reactivation prepared by the Federation of Chambers of Commerce of the Central American Isthmus (Fecamco), the resources obtained through indebtedness, served the companies to pay payroll, face rents and support operations.
Twelve months after Central America began a health and economic crisis triggered by the covid-19 outbreak, Guatemala was the fastest recovering economy and Panamanian economic activity is the slowest to return to pre-pandemic levels.
In March 2020, the first cases of covid-19 began to be detected in the countries of the region. The highly contagious disease, which at that time had already claimed the lives of thousands of people around the world, forced Central American governments to establish mobility restrictions.
Between December 2019 and the same month of 2020, the number of employees contributing to Social Security decreased 3%, a fall that is explained by the economic crisis generated by the outbreak of covid-19.
Official data show that Sacatepéquez, Quetzaltenango and Guatemala were the most affected departments, as the drop in the number of contributors in these regions amounted to 9%, 7% and 4.5%, respectively.
The government and businessmen agree that 2021 will be a good year for construction, as the Bank of Guatemala projects that the sector will grow by 7.5%, while the builders' guild estimates that activity will increase by 3%.
According to official forecasts made by the central bank, it is estimated that during 2020, economic activity in the construction sector fell by 7.4% due to the crisis caused by the outbreak of covid-19.
Strengthening trade between the US and the region, fighting corruption in the Northern Triangle and reducing illegal migration flows, are some of the axes on which Joe Biden, the US president who has been sworn in, is expected to focus.
Biden, representative of the Democratic Party and winner of the last US elections, whose results were close, arrives at the White House to replace Donald Trump.
The agile execution of economic stimulus programs, the considerable increase in public debt and the need to accelerate the process of economic reactivation are the lights, shadows and challenges identified a year after Alejandro Giammattei took office as president of Guatemala.
The World Bank has improved economic growth projections for all Central American economies for 2021, with Honduras, El Salvador and Panama having the most promising forecasts.
In June 2020, when the health and economic effects of the pandemic that caused the covid-19 outbreak were beginning to be reported, the World Bank predicted that in 2021 Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product would decrease by -1.6%, but in a January 2021 publication it projected that the drop would be -0.9%.
Because of the fall in economic activity and the restrictions imposed to contain the spread of covid-19, businessmen in Costa Rica and Panama predict that the process of economic recovery will not be completed in the near future.
In this crisis scenario generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the Costa Rican economy does not show clear signs of recovery, since during November 2020 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a year-on-year fall of 6.2%, a decline similar to that reported in October, when it was 6.3%.
Because in this context of new commercial reality the sales of alcohol, fertilizers, soaps, detergents and chemical and pharmaceutical products have increased, the productive activity of the Central American industrial sector has been dynamized.
According to figures from the Bank of Guatemala, during the III Quarter of 2020 the Guatemalan Gross Domestic Product reported -2% year-on-year variation, a behavior that contrasts with the evolution of the manufacturing industry, which for the period in question registered a 3% increase in its production.
Arguing that the economic and social effects of the covid-19 pandemic in the country have been considerable, the local authorities decided that during 2021 the minimum wage will not be increased.
In no case will workers be able to have a salary lower than that set in Governmental Agreement 250-2020, which goes into effect as of January 1, 2021, the statement from the Ministry of Labor and Social Security points out.
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