According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
Due to the economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, it is estimated that between 10% and 12% of students in private institutions in Costa Rica have stopped demanding the services, and tuition fees have gone down.
When the first cases were detected in the country in March, the authorities began to decree restrictions on mobility and productive activities, a situation that generated a severe economic crisis.
After the Alvarado administration agreed to backtrack on the proposal to negotiate a $1.75 billion loan with the IMF, it is predicted that next year the government will depend on domestic debt to finance its expenditures.
In this scenario of economic crisis, falling tax revenues and the need to finance recovery programs, in Guatemala and Costa Rica it is already proposed to increase current taxes and create new ones.
Guatemalan authorities are already beginning to discuss the fiscal policy they will apply in 2021, when the economy will have to face the effects of the economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak.
After the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 15% to 8% between April and August, it became evident that at the beginning of the crisis the capacity of recovery that the North American country could develop was underestimated and it is expected that this behavior could boost the economic activity in Central America.
During the first half of 2020, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be reported in the region, forecasts noted that the recovery of economic activity would be excessively slow, due to a significant drop in consumption globally.
After reporting in June a 7% year-on-year variation, in July the monthly index of economic activity continued to fall, registering an 8% drop with respect to the same month in 2019, a decrease that is explained by the economic crisis affecting the country.
The lower activity, which is due to the impact that the pandemic has had in Costa Rica and around the world, is seen in the five major economic activities (agriculture, manufacturing, construction, trade and services) that make up the monthly index of economic activity (IMAE).
As a result of the crisis, in Costa Rica in June of this year the rate of availability of premises in shopping centers climbed to 11.8%, a proportion of concern because a healthy level should not exceed 10%.
Although the sector keeps its operations alive thanks to the packaging they produce for the food and cleaning industry, there is uncertainty among entrepreneurs as the demand for bags, brushes, tableware, furniture and other products has contracted.
As a result of the home quarantines that were decreed in the countries of the region in March 2020 due to covid-19, the outlook for the plastics industry fluctuates between optimism and uncertainty in market behavior.
Against the backdrop of an imbalance in trade and restrictions decreed in several markets around the world, Central American companies in the garment business are operating and generating export earnings at levels that merely allow them to subsist.
Data from the Office of Textiles and Apparel, of the U.S.
Due to the drop in economic activity generated by the covid-19 crisis, a 7.9% reduction in domestic electricity consumption was reported in the region between March and June 2020, when compared to the levels of the same period in 2019.
Regarding the reduction of internal consumption of electricity in the countries from March to June 2020, we have that Guatemala had a drop in its demand of 239 GWh (Gigawatt hours), which corresponds to 6.6% compared to the consumption of electricity in 2019, in the case of El Salvador with a reduction of 335 GWh, equivalent to 15.4%, says a report from the Regional Operating Agency (EOR).
It is estimated that in Costa Rica at least 40% of the premises located in shopping malls have been forced to close permanently due to the restrictions imposed by the covid-19 outbreak.
Since 2017, commercial activity in Costa Rica has been slowing down, but with the closures of businesses due to the covid-19 outbreak, between March and July of this year, sales have fallen considerably.
In this context of restrictions on movement and social distancing measures, which began in March of this year, approximately 30% of shops were reported to have closed and it is estimated that just in July, sales in the commercial sector fell by 68% compared to the same month in 2019.
In the context of the economic crisis, it is estimated that companies in Central America have reduced the working hours of employees to an average of 32 hours per week.
As a result of the spread of covid-19 in the countries of the region and the imposition of strict home quarantines, demand for products and services has fallen considerably in most markets.
At the height of the pandemic and economic crisis, the Costa Rican president announced, on a national chain, an economic recovery plan with no clear direction, no assigned leaders and no concrete actions.
In the message broadcast on the night of July 12, President Carlos Alvarado vaguely explained part of the plan to be adopted to overcome the health and economic crisis generated by the spread of covid-19.
Despite a severe economic crisis, Costa Rican authorities have approved the imposition of a 1% VAT on several foodstuffs in the basic food basket, and 4% on certain tourist activities and construction services.
Before the emergence of the pandemic, the Costa Rican economy was already in a difficult state, and the impact of the covid-19 outbreak ended up hitting it in the worst way, which is evident in the performance of productive activity.
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