The exporters' guild estimates that the new year will be difficult for the country's economy, since there are multiple factors that threaten the growth of foreign sales.
The Association of Producers and Exporters of Nicaragua (APEN) reported that the expectation of year-on-year increase in export revenue for 2018 ranged between 6% and 10%, however, there was a 1% decrease.
Because of the political crisis that began in Nicaragua in April, during the third quarter of last year the country's GDP fell by 4.5% compared to the same period in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that in the third quarter of 2018, the economy registered a 4.8 percent year-on-year decline and a 0.5 percent annual average reduction.
From June to November 2018, transactions registered on the Nicaraguan Stock Exchange totaled $316 million, 57% less than reported in the same months of 2017.
According to figures from the Nicaraguan Stock Exchange (BDVN), from January to May 2018, positive interannual variations were reported in the traded amount, however, for the period from June to November a downward trend has been registered.
From January to October of this year, 13 out of 17 domestic consumption activities reported contractions over the same period in 2017.
The third report of the Economic Activities Monitoring of Nicaragua of the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep) and the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), detail that the sales of urbanization companies that build homes of medium-high and high level from January to October of this year are 80% lower than those recorded in the first 10 months of 2017.
A 40% decline is estimated in the construction of social housing investments in the country, and in the case of middle and upper-class housing, the contraction reaches 70%.
According to figures from the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep), the value added in the construction sector will register a 25% decline, falling from $399 million in 2017 to $300 million in 2018.
After the political and social crisis that began in April, the Nicaraguan economy will lose more than $1.3 billion this year, and GDP could decline by 4%, together with the collateral effects suffered by the countries of the region.
Several indicators have reflected the weak performance of the country's economy since the crisis began.
At the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018, touristic companies in Nicaragua were reporting a good performance, but the political situation in the country has generated a crisis that is still unsolved.
In 2017, tourism generated $840 million in revenue for the Nicaraguan economy, 31% more than in 2016, growth that improved the companies' expectations at the beginning of the year, since in the first quarter of 2018 the forecasts were that by the end of this year revenues could reach $900 million.
Following the trend observed since May, in September the monthly index of economic activity in Nicaragua reported a 4.3% drop compared to the same month in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) registered a 4.3 percent decrease compared to September 2017, with an annual variation of -0.2 percent and a 1.9 percent decrease in the accumulated variation.
Justifying a larger-than-expected economic contraction, a growing fiscal deficit and a greater risk of internal and external financial constraints, the rating agency lowered the rating from B to B-.
This is Fitch Ratings' second downgrade so far this year. In the first quarter, the rating was B+ with a solid outlook, in the second quarter the rating agency downgraded it to B with a negative outlook, and now it downgraded it to B-, and kept the negative outlook.
Because of the social and political crisis, businessmen working in the freight transport sector in Nicaragua estimate that by the end of this year their operations will have been down by up to 25%.
According to the Transporters Association of Nicaragua (ATN), the crisis that began in April this year has caused losses in cargo transport activity in the country, and the operations of companies in the sector are estimated to register a 25% reduction in 2018 compared to 2017.
Businessmen in Nicaragua reported that from January to September sales of furniture and wood showed a decrease of 60% compared to the same period in 2017.
According to the second Monitoring of Economic Activities in Nicaragua, of the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep) and the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), under the political and social crisis that has affected the country for more than six months, sales of the furniture sector have reported negative results.
The decline in economic activity is the reason for the year-on-year decline of 36% reported in the capital goods imports up to August this year.
According to figures from the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN), between August 2017 and the same month of this year, imports of capital goods registered a fall of 35.8%, declining from $107 million to $69 million.
In September, sales of houses in Nicaragua reported a fall of 80%, and sales of vehicles and hotels were reduced 75% and 70%, respectively, compared to the same month last year.
According to the Second Monitoring of Economic Activities in Nicaragua, prepared by the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep) and the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), during September sales of advertising agencies fell 48%, those of distributors of medical equipment 40% and those of restaurants 35%, compared to the ninth month of 2017.
Preserving macroeconomic and financial stability and restoring private sector confidence are part of the IMF's recommendations to the Nicaraguan government to mitigate the impact of the political and economic crisis.
A team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Nicaragua, and after evaluating the situation of the economy after more than six months of social and political crisis, forecasts a 4% contraction of the Gross Domestic Product by 2018.
Managua's restaurant trade association reports the closure of at least 700 fast food restaurants in recent months.
According to representatives of the Association of Restaurant Owners of Managua, due to the low levels of sales reported in recent months, at least 700 restaurants have closed their operations.
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