Because of the tension between the productive sector and the government, coupled with the lack of official statistics from the Central Bank, some companies in Nicaragua have chosen to stop providing information to the authorities.
In an attempt to hide the complicated economic situation, the country is going through, local authorities have not published information on the Monthly Economic Activity Index since February 2019, when the year-on-year drop was 7.5%. This prevents businessmen from making decisions based on the real situation of the economy.
Fitch Ratings decided to keep the country's risk rating at B, but changed the outlook from negative to stable, arguing that there are some signs of stabilization of Central Bank reserves and commercial bank deposits.
The revision of the outlook reflects the stabilization of central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits, a significant fiscal adjustment and social security reform that have reduced domestic financing needs and a pronounced external rebalancing that has facilitated the external financing requirement, the rating agency reported.
In Nicaragua, the authorities have not published information on the Monthly Index of Economic Activity since February 2019, when the year-on-year fall was 7.5%, a situation that prevents businessmen from making decisions based on the real situation of the economy.
After the economies of the region grew by 2.6% in 2018 as a whole, the IMF estimates that 2019 would close with a rise of 2.7% and could reach 3.4% by 2020.
The document "World Economic Outlook", prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), states that for Panama the projected growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2019 was reduced from 5% to 4.3%.
Understanding the economic environment the company is facing, generating projections in real time and having the opinion of external consultants to the organization, are some of the strategies that could help companies in times of low sales.
In Central America, during the first half of the year, some economies reported declines in their productive activity. The most difficult case is Nicaragua, where economic activity has collapsed 7% in the last year. However, other countries face adverse situations, such as Costa Rica, whose level of economic activity has shown a downward trend over the last year and a half.
Avoiding hurried discounts, managing price increases according to costs and improving cash flow are some of the strategies that companies can resort to protect their profitability in contexts of inflation and recession.
Ariel Baños, a price management specialist and founder of Fijciondeprecios.com, explains four strategies for maintaining profitability when companies face scenarios of rising prices and low dynamism in economic activity.
Faced with the threat of a global economic slowdown and the possibility of the U.S. entering recession next year, businessmen in the region argue that to mitigate possible adverse effects, it is key to diversify export destinations.
Market analysts assure that the slowdown in U.S. economic activity is already a reality, and that what is still not clear, is the possibility that the economy will go into recession next year. The recent reversal of the U.S. bond curve, which historically has been the signal that warns of a recession in the short term, may not mean the same on this time, say some U.S. brokerage firms.
Making real sales projections, segmenting prices and designing savings options are some of the strategies that companies can use to protect their profitability in contexts of inflation and recession.
Ariel Baños, price management specialist and founder of Fijciondeprecios.com, details techniques that could help companies avoid negative effects on their finances, when faced with scenarios of rising prices and low dynamism in economic activity.
At a time of economic slowdown, companies must immediately review business models and identify opportunities arising from the creation of new market niches.
In Central America, during the first half of the year, at least four of the six economies reported declines in productive activity. The most dramatic case is that of Nicaragua, which in February recorded a 7% year-on-year drop in the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (MIEA), a situation reported since the political crisis began in April 2018.
After 14 months of socio-political crisis in Nicaragua, companies in the country face a reduction in consumption and investment, as well as the impact on national economic activity of rising unemployment.
According to studies conducted by the Consejo Superior de la Empresa Privada (COSEP) and the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUNIDES), the local economy faces a contraction in economic activity that continues to deepen, prevailing uncertainty and distrust in consumers and investors.
Because of the impact of the crisis, for this year it is estimated that the contraction in economic activity will be between 7% and 11%, and the open unemployment rate could increase from 5.5% to 8.5%.
Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), contains estimates of the behavior of the country's economy for this year, within the framework of the political and economic crisis it is going through.
In the second month of 2019, the IMAE in Nicaragua registered a 7% decrease with respect to February 2018, mainly because of the performance of the Hotels and Restaurants, and Fisheries and Aquaculture sectors.
The original IMAE series showed a 7.5% decrease compared to February 2018, a 6.6% decrease in the January-February period and a 5.3% annual average, reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua in its report.
At the beginning of 2019, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity registered a 6% decrease with respect to January 2018, mainly because of the behavior of the Hotels and Restaurants and Commerce sectors.
During January 2019, in the original series, the activities with the greatest growth were livestock, 6.5%, energy and water, 4.3%, agriculture, 3.4%, forestry and wood extraction, 3.4%, education, 2.1%, and health, 1.6%, reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
Nicaraguan carriers estimate that during the first quarter of the year the movement of cargo in the country has decreased by up to 55%, mainly because of the decline in economic activity.
For the representatives of the Nicaraguan Association of Transporters, local fuel prices have also affected them, as their operations have become more expensive compared to other countries in the region.
A drastic fall in productive activity, outflows of investments and the disappearance of thousands of formal jobs are some of the consequences a year after the political and economic crisis in Nicaragua.
In March 2018, CentralAmericaData reported the figures that reflected the economic boom that Nicaragua was experiencing: formal employment grew at a year-on-year rate of close to 3%, economic activity each month recorded year-on-year growth rates of between 4% and 5%, while consumption and imports increased. Only a month later, on Friday, April 19, a series of events occurred that determined a radical change in the trend observed until then. The announcement of the reform of the Nicaraguan Social Security Institute triggered a social, political and economic crisis that the country is suffering so far.
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