During March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a variation of 13% when compared to the levels reported in the same month of 2020, a period that was marked by the closure of the economy due to the pandemic.
The economic activities that most contributed to the positive result were: Manufacturing Industry and Commerce, and to a lesser extent, Mail and Telecommunications, Financial Intermediation and Other Services -related to health and net taxes-. These contributions were partially offset by the negative variations in agricultural activities, Transportation and Storage, and Hotels and Restaurants, highlights the report of the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
After in January 2021 in the context of the crisis caused by the pandemic, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity at the national level reported a 6% decrease in year on year terms, in February a smaller drop was registered, amounting to 3.5%.
The drop recorded in February continues to reflect the negative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the damage caused by the tropical storms of November 2020, affecting the evolution of most economic activities, mainly in "... Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing; Manufacturing Industry; Transportation and Storage; Hotels and Restaurants; Commerce; and Private Construction; these contractions have been partially offset by the boost in the services of Mail and Telecommunications and Financial Intermediation", informed the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
The World Bank predicts that by the end of this year Panama and the Dominican Republic will be the economies of the region that will grow the most, and the countries that will report the lowest increases in their production will be Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
After the region's economies were considerably affected in 2020 by the sanitary crisis generated by the Covid-19 outbreak, the outlook of international organizations for 2021 is encouraging.
During 2020 in all countries of the region, construction activity decreased considerably and Central American cement imports stagnated, this adverse scenario is explained by the economic crisis generated by the pandemic.
The construction industry statistics system, which is part of the interactive platform "Construction in Central America" of CentralAmericaData's Business Intelligence area, compiles the most important industry data for each of the countries in the region.
Twelve months after Central America began a health and economic crisis triggered by the covid-19 outbreak, Guatemala was the fastest recovering economy and Panamanian economic activity is the slowest to return to pre-pandemic levels.
In March 2020, the first cases of covid-19 began to be detected in the countries of the region. The highly contagious disease, which at that time had already claimed the lives of thousands of people around the world, forced Central American governments to establish mobility restrictions.
At the end of last year, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a -8.5% year-on-year variation, a drop that is explained by the negative effects generated by the outbreak of covid-19 and tropical storms Iota and Eta.
The national production of goods and services in terms of volume, showed a contraction in the accumulated variation rate of 8.5% (increase of 3.1% in 2019), mainly explained by the negative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on economic activity and demand, added to the impact of tropical storms Eta and Iota on agricultural crops, some industries and productive infrastructure, mainly in the northern part of the country, says an official report.
As a result of the pandemic in May 2020, the IMAE hit bottom by falling 22% year-on-year, but from June onwards, smaller falls began to be reported and in October the decline was barely 1%; however, in November the country fell back by 12%.
National production, measured through the original series of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), reflected a 12% year-on-year decrease in November 2020, determined by the negative impact of the pandemic, to which was added the losses in production due to the flooding caused in the national territory in the first half of November by the occurrence of tropical storms Eta and Iota.
The World Bank has improved economic growth projections for all Central American economies for 2021, with Honduras, El Salvador and Panama having the most promising forecasts.
In June 2020, when the health and economic effects of the pandemic that caused the covid-19 outbreak were beginning to be reported, the World Bank predicted that in 2021 Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product would decrease by -1.6%, but in a January 2021 publication it projected that the drop would be -0.9%.
Because of the fall in economic activity and the restrictions imposed to contain the spread of covid-19, businessmen in Costa Rica and Panama predict that the process of economic recovery will not be completed in the near future.
In this crisis scenario generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the Costa Rican economy does not show clear signs of recovery, since during November 2020 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a year-on-year fall of 6.2%, a decline similar to that reported in October, when it was 6.3%.
Although the end of the year holidays is a threat to Central America for a second wave of covid-19 infections, it is expected that total closures will not be decreed since there are currently effective health control options, and less costly for the economy.
When the first cases of covid-19 were reported in the region in March 2020, most governments decided to paralyze a large part of productive activities and decree home quarantines. These actions focused on containing the advance of the virus caused a severe economic crisis in all countries.
As of June, Central American economies began to show signs of incipient recovery and as of August, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Costa Rica registered the smallest drops in their levels of economic activity.
Since March of this year, the region has faced a severe economic crisis generated by the outbreak of covid-19.
After the IMAE in Honduras registered a -22% year-on-year variation in May of this year, during July and August the contraction of Honduran production was less, reporting falls of 13% and 8%, respectively.
The measures adopted to face the Covid-19 health emergency have had a negative impact on economic activity, reflected in the accumulated variation to August 2020 of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), which shows a 10% contraction in its original series, reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
The Council of Ministers approved that Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula will return from July 29 to Phase I of the Opening Plan, which allows companies to operate with 20% of their workforce.
According to the proposal put forward by the Multisectoral Table, commerce and companies in general were authorized so that as of Wednesday, July 29, they can resume their activities and business, according to the percentage of the workforce, as per the authorized region, using the biosecurity protocols approved by the Ministry of Labor and Social Security.
After suspending the process of reopening the economy, on July 27 the country will resume Phase I in Region 3, which provides for the reactivation of operations of companies with 20% of their workforceº
As a result of non-compliance with biosecurity protocols, the increase in the number of cases and the saturation of hospital capacity, Phase I of the Intelligent Opening Process was suspended.
On June 8, business activities began to restart. However, the increase in the number of people infected forced the authorities to back off and cancel the start of Phase I, a decision that was communicated on June 21.
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