As a result of the economic slowdown and the imbalance in public finances, Costa Rica faces a complex and high-risk future, in which the margins for action and maneuver will be increasingly limited.
The State of the Nation 2019 report explains that the economic slowdown and imbalance in public finances created a scenario of great complexity and risk, both economic and political, which aggravated the structural weaknesses or "blind spots" of the national development style.
For the authorities of the Central Bank, the economy begins to show signs of recovery, because for four consecutive months the economic activity has registered a positive performance.
In June of this year, the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) began to show signs of recovery, recording a 1.2% year-on-year increase. In July and August, positive variations continued, with 1.4% and 1.7% increases reported, respectively.
After year-on-year variations of 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, will be reported in Costa Rica in July and August, in September the IMAE grew 2%, again explained by the performance of the special regimes manufacturing sector.
The growth of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) in August was driven by the production of special regimes (free zone and active perfecting), which grew at a 12% year-on-year rate, according to information from the Central Bank of Costa Rica.
During September, the IMAE registered a 2.7% year-on-year increase, mainly because of the performance of Construction and Commercial Activity.
At the end of the third quarter of the current year, the original IMAE series reached 2.7% cumulative variation (3.5% in the same period in 2018). Meanwhile, the trend cycle series showed a 2.2% year-on-year variation (3.8% in September 2018), reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
In September, the IMAE in Guatemala registered a 4.2% inter-annual variation, influenced by wholesale and retail trade activities, and Agriculture, livestock, hunting, forestry and fishing.
The economic activity measured by the estimation of the IMAE, in September 2019, showed a 4.2% growth rate, variation that is greater in comparison to the 3.6% registered in the ninth month of 2018, explains the report of the Banco de Guatemala.
In Nicaragua, the authorities have not published information on the Monthly Index of Economic Activity since February 2019, when the year-on-year fall was 7.5%, a situation that prevents businessmen from making decisions based on the real situation of the economy.
Although Panamanian businessmen recognize that in the first months of the Cortizo administration there have been advances that could improve the performance of the local economy, it is predicted that the reactivation could take longer than expected.
After the Dominican Republic's Monthly Manufacturing Activity Index recorded a 5% year-on-year decline in August, a new drop was reported in September, in this case of 8% with respect to the same month in 2018.
Regarding the inter-monthly variation, the report details that the Monthly Manufacturing Activity Index (IMAM), prepared by the Dominican RepublicIndustries Association (AIRD), decreased from 60.1 in August to 54 in September.
During August, the IMAE in Honduras registered a 2.4% year-on-year increase, largely because of the performance of financial intermediation, insurance and pension funds.
The economic activities with positive behavior were: Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds, Mail and Telecom, Manufacturing Industry and Commerce, to a lesser extent contributed Private Construction and Electricity and Water, reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
During September, economic activity registered a 5% year-on-year increase, behavior that is explained by the performance of financial services, construction and transportation.
Transport, storage and communications, public administration and financial intermediation, are part of the sectors that in August explained in Panama the 3.2% growth in the IMAE.
The transportation and communications services presented favorable results, because of the operations of the expanded Panama Canal, the movement of international passengers by air and telecommunications, informed the General Comptroller of the Republic.
After reporting falls in previous months, during September 2019 in Honduras the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 4% increase with respect to August.
Analysts showed that the main indicators that measure economic performance are positive, they expect that with the proximity of the Morazán Week and the Christmas season the economy will dynamize, informed the Central Bank of Honduras.
Private services, manufacturing industries and wholesale and retail trade explained part of the 3% year-on-year increase reported in gross GDP in the period from April to June 2019.
Financial intermediation, insurance and auxiliary activities, and Construction were other economic activities contributing to the growth of the Gross Domestic Product for the quarter in question.
After the economies of the region grew by 2.6% in 2018 as a whole, the IMF estimates that 2019 would close with a rise of 2.7% and could reach 3.4% by 2020.
The document "World Economic Outlook", prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), states that for Panama the projected growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2019 was reduced from 5% to 4.3%.
Up to July of this year, economic activity in the country grew 2.8%, slightly higher than the 2.5% recorded in the previous month.
The economic activities highlighted for their contribution to the overall result of the indicator were: Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds, Post and Telecom, Commerce and Manufacturing Industry, as well as Private Construction and Electricity and Water, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
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