At the end of last year, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a -8.5% year-on-year variation, a drop that is explained by the negative effects generated by the outbreak of covid-19 and tropical storms Iota and Eta.
The national production of goods and services in terms of volume, showed a contraction in the accumulated variation rate of 8.5% (increase of 3.1% in 2019), mainly explained by the negative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on economic activity and demand, added to the impact of tropical storms Eta and Iota on agricultural crops, some industries and productive infrastructure, mainly in the northern part of the country, says an official report.
In December 2020, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a year-on-year variation of -5.1%, a drop that is explained by the restrictions imposed due to the covid-19 outbreak.
Since the calculation of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) series began in 1991, the average annual gross production, measured by the IMAE, has only fallen on two occasions, specifically in 2009 and 2020. Both cases coincide with world crises, but the impact has been much more severe for Costa Rica in the case of 2020, according to an official report.
As a result of the pandemic in May 2020, the IMAE hit bottom by falling 22% year-on-year, but from June onwards, smaller falls began to be reported and in October the decline was barely 1%; however, in November the country fell back by 12%.
National production, measured through the original series of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), reflected a 12% year-on-year decrease in November 2020, determined by the negative impact of the pandemic, to which was added the losses in production due to the flooding caused in the national territory in the first half of November by the occurrence of tropical storms Eta and Iota.
The World Bank has improved economic growth projections for all Central American economies for 2021, with Honduras, El Salvador and Panama having the most promising forecasts.
In June 2020, when the health and economic effects of the pandemic that caused the covid-19 outbreak were beginning to be reported, the World Bank predicted that in 2021 Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product would decrease by -1.6%, but in a January 2021 publication it projected that the drop would be -0.9%.
Because of the fall in economic activity and the restrictions imposed to contain the spread of covid-19, businessmen in Costa Rica and Panama predict that the process of economic recovery will not be completed in the near future.
In this crisis scenario generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the Costa Rican economy does not show clear signs of recovery, since during November 2020 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a year-on-year fall of 6.2%, a decline similar to that reported in October, when it was 6.3%.
After restrictions were imposed on people's mobility during the holiday season to stop the spread of covid-19, Panamanian authorities reported that as of January 14 there will be a return to the process of "gradual and asymmetric reopening.
In a press conference, the Minister of Health, Luis Francisco Sucre, informed that due to the fact that a balance was achieved in the incidence of covid-19 cases, it was decided to lift the quarantine that had been in place since the beginning of the year and as of January 14 the curfew for the entire country will be from 9:00 p.m. until 4:00 a.m. the following day.
In the context of the pandemic, the Costa Rican economy does not show clear signs of recovery, since during November 2020 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported an annual fall of 6.2%, a decline that is similar to that reported in October when it was 6.3%.
In November, the contraction persisted, in year-on-year terms, in most economic activities. The most affected are: hotels and restaurants (-52.3%), transportation and storage (-20.6%), construction (-19.7%) and commerce (-12.4%), reported the Central Bank of Costa Rica.
Strengthening the confidence of economic agents through a solution to the problem of public finances and moving forward with the process of vaccinating the population are key factors for the Costa Rican economy to recover quickly in the new year.
The spread of covid-19 and the restrictions imposed at the local and global levels severely affected most of Costa Rica's productive sectors, to the extent that the unemployment rate climbed to historical levels, several businesses were closed and economic activity fell sharply.
Due to the crisis generated by the covid-19, in May 2020 the economic activity registered its worst decline by falling 31% in year-on-year terms, however, as of June minor decreases were reported and in September the drop was 22%.
The accumulated Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) from January to September 2020 registered a 18.3% decrease, compared to the same period in 2019, informed the General Comptroller of the Republic.
After reporting a 2% drop in October from the previous month, in November the Economic Activity Confidence Index continued to decline, registering a 6% decrease.
The Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.91% for November, 4.75% for December 2020 and 4.60% for January 2021, according to the Bank of Guatemala's report.
After bottoming out in the second quarter of the year, Guatemala's industrial activity index reversed its trend as of July, and in September 2020 registered a 6% drop.
According to analysis by Central American Business Intelligence (Cabi), because the mobility of people in the country is not fully restored, some sub-sectors are still affected.
Although the end of the year holidays is a threat to Central America for a second wave of covid-19 infections, it is expected that total closures will not be decreed since there are currently effective health control options, and less costly for the economy.
When the first cases of covid-19 were reported in the region in March 2020, most governments decided to paralyze a large part of productive activities and decree home quarantines. These actions focused on containing the advance of the virus caused a severe economic crisis in all countries.
After seven months of reporting drops in production levels, which were caused by the crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, during October the Monthly Index of Economic Activity registered a 1.3% year-on-year variation.
The health emergency led to a severe economic crisis, which began to become evident in March, when the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) fell 5% year-on-year.
After the IMAE reported year-on-year variations of -9% and -8%, respectively, in July and August, during September the Costa Rican economy continued to recover from the impact of the health crisis by reporting a 6% drop in production.
The Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) reported that the economy is in the process of recovery, as a result of the process of reopening and gradual lifting of sanitary restrictions, which were imposed following the outbreak of covid-19. However, the upturn so far is not enough to fully recover the loss in production of the previous quarter, so the level of activity is still lower than in the last quarter of 2019.
After dropping in May 2020 due to the outbreak of covid-19, then registering a -11% year-on-year variation, since then the economic activity index has been recovering quickly, reporting a reduction of only 0.3% in September.
The 0.3% decline in the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) was influenced by the drop recorded in Accommodation and food service activities, Construction, Trade and vehicle repair, Transportation and storage, as well as by the growth observed in Manufacturing industries; Supply of electricity, water and sanitation services, and, Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing.
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