After almost 100 days of restrictions on the mobility of people and the closure of some productive activities, the Guatemalan private sector is asking the authorities to start evaluating the gradual opening of businesses under strict protocols.
Due to the outbreak of covid-19, the authorities decreed the closure of several economic activities since mid-March, and up to date restrictions to the operation of some sectors are still in place.
In order to de-escalate the confinement and reactivate productive activities, the Guatemalan authorities plan to begin in the regions where the covid-19 curve starts to fall, without having to wait for this situation to arise throughout the country.
Since mid-March, Guatemala has been under house quarantine, due to the covid-19 outbreak that so far affects all departments of the country. Although as of June 21, the number of people infected and killed by the virus continues to rise, business owners and authorities are beginning to evaluate possible scenarios to reactivate the activities they are not allowed to operate.
As a result of non-compliance with biosecurity protocols, the increase in the number of cases and the saturation of hospital capacity, Phase I of the Intelligent Opening Process was suspended.
On June 8, business activities began to restart. However, the increase in the number of people infected forced the authorities to back off and cancel the start of Phase I, a decision that was communicated on June 21.
Arguing that the country is at risk of taking the route of an exponential covid-19 infection curve, the government suspended phase 3 of the commercial reopening and decreed new vehicle restrictions for June 20-21.
Due to the increase in cases announced on June 19 at a press conference, the government decided to tighten health measures issued by the Ministry of Health to contain the spread of the disease, thus postponing the third phase of reopening announced on June 18.
Businessmen and authorities agreed that from June 16 will begin the reactivation of productive activities, and it is estimated that within 100 days the economy will be functioning at 100%.
After almost three months of restrictions to the mobility of people and the suspension of productive activities, derived from the outbreak of covid-19 in the country, agreements were reached at the Economic Reactivation Table.
The Ministerial Agreement was published in the Diario de Centroamerica, which specifies the four phases to be applied for the de-escalation of containment measures for the reactivation of economic activity in the country.
According to the official document, Phase 0, which is called "De-escalation Preparation", will provide relaxation of the confinement measures that will allow relief to citizens and workplaces, allowing mobility outside the home.
After the Guatemalan government carried out total closures of economic activity for three consecutive weekends in the context of the covid-19 outbreak, the president announced that there would be no total suspension of operations for the week of June 1-7.
Another change is that the curfew will now be 18 hours to 5 am next day, reported the night of May 31 President Alejandro Giammattei on national television.
After the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 19% drop in March 2020, in April the situation worsened with a -43% year-on-year variation, a drop that agrees with the advance of the health crisis in the country.
In April 2020, the level of the Economic Activity Confidence Index stood at 32.64 points, 43.25% lower than that recorded in March 2020 (57.52 points) and fell by 26.83% compared to April 2019 (44.61 points), reported the Bank of Guatemala.
Allowing the operation of economic sectors with low density and lower risk of transmission of covid-19, with the respective biosecurity measures, is the request of the Panamanian business sector to begin to revive the economy.
In this scenario of health emergency and spread of covid-19, businessmen have already held talks with both the Ministry of Health (MINSA) and the Ministry of Commerce and Industries (MICI) on the gradual opening of activities that lead to the resumption of work in sectors that commit to do so through strict compliance with general and specific protocols approved by the authorities, explains a publication by the Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Agriculture of Panama (CCIAP).
Guatemalan businessmen believe that in order to reactivate economic activity in the country, it is necessary to restrict the number of people in public spaces and increase the number of tests performed on those who have signs of carrying the virus.
Explained by the behavior of the Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds, and the Manufacturing Industry, during January the Monthly Index of Economic Activity increased by 3.8% with respect to the same period in 2019.
Most of the productive activities showed positive results in the first month of 2020, standing out for their contribution to the global indicator: Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds; Manufacturing Industry; Post and Telecoms; and Commerce, informed the Central Bank of Honduras.
During January of this year, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase, which is partly explained by the behavior of trade, transport and storage.
Among the categories of economic activity that showed a positive behavior were: commerce, transportation, storage and communications, financial intermediation, agriculture, electricity and water, mining and quarrying, and domestic services, reported the Comptroller.
During January, IMAE registered a 2.5% year-on-year variation, down from the 2.8% reported at the end of 2019.
Most economic activities show positive year-on-year variations in January and higher than a year ago, with the exception of construction, whose production decreases, reported the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR).
During January, IMAE registered a year-on-year variation of 3.6%, up from 3.4% at the end of 2019.
The growth rate of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) reported in the first month of 2020 is also higher than that recorded in January 2019, when the year-on-year change was 3.2%.
The report of the Bank of Guatemala states that "... The behavior described, was influenced by the economic activities of Commerce and vehicle repair; manufacturing industries; Real Estate activities; Agriculture, cattle, forestry and fishing and Financial and insurance activities.
During January 2020 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a 5% year-on-year variation, a rise that was boosted by the construction and financial services sectors.
In terms of trend - cycle, the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE) shows a 5.3% annualized expansion, reflecting that the economic activity in the situation is growing at a consistent rate, reported the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic.
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