Although expectations for the end of 2021 are good for the Guatemalan economy, there is uncertainty regarding what will happen in the second part of the year, as the vaccination process is progressing slowly.
According to World Bank forecasts published in June 2021, it is expected that at the end of the year, Guatemala's Gross Domestic Product will grow 3.6% year-on-year. See report "Global Economic Prospects".
Between the period from March to May 2020 and the same period in 2021, electricity consumption increased by 5%, a rise that can be attributed to the increase in exports and tourism activity.
Data from the National Energy Control Center (Cence) highlights that for the periods under analysis, consumption at the national level went from 2,780 to 2,906 Gigawatt hours (GWh), which is equivalent to an increase of 126 GWh.
During March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity registered a -6% year-on-year variation, a decrease that is attributed to the effects of the sanitary emergency caused by Covid-19.
According to the most recent report of the General Comptroller's Office of the Republic, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) accumulated from January-March 2021 showed a decrease of 10.06%, compared to the same period of 2020.
During March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a year-on-year variation of 6.5%, a rise that is largely explained by the dynamism of mining and quarrying, manufacturing industry and construction.
In primary activities, growth was registered in mining and quarrying, livestock, agriculture, fishing and aquaculture, and a decrease in forestry and timber extraction, informed the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
During March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a variation of 13% when compared to the levels reported in the same month of 2020, a period that was marked by the closure of the economy due to the pandemic.
The economic activities that most contributed to the positive result were: Manufacturing Industry and Commerce, and to a lesser extent, Mail and Telecommunications, Financial Intermediation and Other Services -related to health and net taxes-. These contributions were partially offset by the negative variations in agricultural activities, Transportation and Storage, and Hotels and Restaurants, highlights the report of the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
In the I Quarter of 2021, 58% of businessmen reported stability in employment, while 36% reported better economic conditions compared to the same period in 2020.
The I Business Perception Survey 2021, conducted by the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial and Financial Associations (CACIF), indicates that 36% of the executives consulted, confirmed a recovery in their sales in the first quarter of the year, with a growth of up to 20% compared to the first quarter of 2020.
In order to contain the advance of the pandemic, during the rest of the month of May, capacity reductions and restrictions to the circulation of vehicles will be applied, measures that will be applied throughout the national territory.
Through a press conference, the Costa Rican Government announced that as of May 13, sanitary measures will be applied, which will be based on the modification of some existing ones.
In March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a 6.9% increase over the level recorded in the same month of 2020.
The Guatemalan economy continues to show positive signs, as after facing a crisis during 2020 due to the covid-19 outbreak, economic activity has recovered rapidly in the last months of last year and in the first quarter of 2021.
According to the IMF, the local economy is well positioned to support the recovery and overcome the deterioration of social indicators, which worsened due to the pandemic caused by the Covid-19 outbreak.
Strong remittances, pandemic-resilient productive specialization, and unprecedented economic policy support limited economic contraction in 2020, while the outlook for 2021 benefits from additional U.S. fiscal stimulus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported.
After in January 2021 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity in the country registered an year on year increase of 0.7%, in February a lower growth was registered, which amounted to 0.2%.
The activities with the highest growth were: mining and quarrying, 24.5%, commerce, 6.2%, fishing and aquaculture, 5.6%, construction, 2.4%, and manufacturing industry, 2.3%, among others, informed the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
After in January 2021 in the context of the crisis caused by the pandemic, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity at the national level reported a 6% decrease in year on year terms, in February a smaller drop was registered, amounting to 3.5%.
The drop recorded in February continues to reflect the negative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the damage caused by the tropical storms of November 2020, affecting the evolution of most economic activities, mainly in "... Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing; Manufacturing Industry; Transportation and Storage; Hotels and Restaurants; Commerce; and Private Construction; these contractions have been partially offset by the boost in the services of Mail and Telecommunications and Financial Intermediation", informed the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
As from April 19, the curfew nationwide will be from 12:00 midnight to 4:00 a.m. the following day, the opening of bars with outdoor terraces and the holding of sports activities with the public will be allowed.
As from next Monday, April 19, the public will be allowed to attend outdoor sports activities with a 25% capacity and without liquor sales, informed the Ministry of Health.
During February 2021, economic activity fell 4.7% in year-on-year terms, a drop that evidences that the economic crisis caused by the covid-19 outbreak continues to affect Costa Rica.
According to the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), as per the cycle trend series of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), the inter-annual variation of production reached its lowest point in June 2020, at which point it began a gradual recovery process.
The World Bank predicts that by the end of this year Panama and the Dominican Republic will be the economies of the region that will grow the most, and the countries that will report the lowest increases in their production will be Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
After the region's economies were considerably affected in 2020 by the sanitary crisis generated by the Covid-19 outbreak, the outlook of international organizations for 2021 is encouraging.
In January of this year, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a 15% year-on-year drop, which is similar to the behavior recorded from March to December 2020, a period in which the pandemic severely affected productive activities.
This index contracted considerably, due to the effects of the Covid-19 health emergency. Among the economic sectors that were affected were: Hotels and restaurants, other community, social and personal service activities, construction, commerce, financial intermediation, manufacturing industries, electricity and water, real estate, business and rental activities, and transportation, storage and communications, among others, according to the Comptroller General's Office of the Republic.
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