"Public debt in terms of simple average for the Central American region will continue growing, reaching 43.1% of GDP in 2018, after having registered 42.5% in 2017."
The Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi) estimates that for the current year the size of public expenditure of the Central Government in relation to the respective Gross Domestic Product of each country will be 21.4% in Costa Rica, 20.4% in El Salvador, 20% in Honduras, 18.4% in Nicaragua, 17.6% in Panama and 12.1% in Guatemala.
El Salvador's Congress approved an IDB loan of $350 million to finance the government budget deficit at a 3.25% rate.
The president of the Legislative Assembly, Norman Quijano, stated that " ..." with the conditions offered by the IDB we will have an interest rate estimated at 3.25%, with the bonds we had an average rate of 7 and 8%, the reduction of interests will mean a saving of tens of millions of dollars for the country.' "
According to the ratings agency the political polarization that characterizes the Legislature which will take office on May 1 could hamper the implementation of the fiscal reforms that the country needs.
From an article by Fitch Ratings:
El Salvador's New Legislature May Yield Fiscal Restraint
Fitch Ratings-New York-23 March 2015: Gains by opposition parties in El Salvador's legislative assembly could result in a compromise to improve the sustainability of public finances but political polarization is likely to continue weighing on the prospects for growth-enhancing and security reforms, Fitch Ratings says.
The productive sectors have indicated that the state budget approved for 2015 is underfinanced and will force the government to raise taxes or issue more debt in order to comply with it.
The approved general budget for the nation is $4.824 billion an amount which according to the private sector can not be covered by current tax revenues, therefore in order to raise this amount there must be either be cuts made to services such as subsidies or social programs, increases or creation of more taxes, or more debt taken on.
The International Coffee Organization estimates that global demand will reach 175 million sacks of 60 kilos in 2020, driven by the markets of China, South Korea and Russia.
The sophistication of consumers and a growing preference for coffee in markets such as South Korea, China and Russia will be part of the main factors driving the increase in demand for the grain in the coming years.
The private sector demands limits on the government's ability to borrow, through means of a Fiscal Responsibility Law.
From a press release issued by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of El Salvador (Camarasal):
The Camarasal has expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that the Legislature has authorized the government to issue a new bond debt for $1.156 million, without having first limited the state's debt capacity through the adoption of a Fiscal Responsibility Law.
If there are no reductions in state subsidies and wages no type of fiscal reform will allow the country to achieve sustainability.
Since 2013 and via an Article IV report for El Salvador, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been warning the government about the need to take action to moderate wages in the public sector and correct poorly targeted subsidies, establishing strict controls over costs, which for the current year increased by $281 million.
Estimates are that the future prices of sugarcane will increase by up to 13% due to drought in Brazil, which in 2013 accounted for 28% of global production of the grain.
A shortfall in global sugar production and consequently higher grain prices is what is seen in the medium term in the global agricultural market. The effects of climate on sugarcane crops in Brazil have resulted in a decline in the production of the world's largest producer.
In the period 2014/2015 demand for coffee will exceed supply due to lower levels of grain production in Brazil.
The next coffee crop cycle will be the first since 2009/2010 in which a deficiency will be registered in the market as an overall deficit of 612,000 bags of coffee is foreseen. "2014/2015 will see the lowest level of production since 2011/2012 and the largest annual percentage decrease since 2009/2010."
The Government is still unable to curb its current account spending, which in 2013 grew by 8% compared to 2012.
Last year, the Salvadoran government used $3,654 million for consumption and operating expenses, $281 million more than in 2012, according to data from Banco Central de Reserva .
"Of the composition of current expenditure in 2013, 37.9% was needed for the payment of public employees, the purchase of goods and services accounted for 17.2% and commitments to public debt accounted for 15.9% of the spending."
With the exception of Nicaragua, fiscal deficits are growing in the rest of the isthmus, along with public debt.
From the editorial of Central America's Fiscal Lens No. 6:
Central America faces an economic slowdown during 2013: on the isthmus, all countries project growth rates which are lower than last year. The degree of openness of these small open economies makes them susceptible to changes in the international context.
Analysis of debt sustainability in Central America, economic growth, inflation, revaluation and management of the fiscal deficit.
Central America Fiscal Lens No. 5 reported that gross domestic production in Central America in 2012 amounted to U.S. $184.000 million. The fastest growing economies were Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
As for exports, although they grew by 7.1%, they were quite far from the 20.5% achieved in 2011.
In relation to GDP, the expenses of the Costa Rican state are the highest in Central America.
This was revealed by a survey conducted by the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi). Second place is occupied by the Government of Panama with 23% of GDP followed by Guatemala which has one of the lowest with 15.1% of production.
Costa Rica is the only Central American country which plans to increase current spending to a total of 18.6% of GDP, also the highest in the region. "... The tax burden is not enough to fund the standard of living in terms of public service delivery," said Renato Vargas Icefi analyst.
In July, the public debt balance reached $14.57 billion, the highest in Central America in relation to GDP.
Elmundo.com.sv reports that "in the first half of the year, the ratio of public debt in El Salvador in relation to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was the highest in Central America, according to the Central American Monetary Council (CAMC)" .