Although expectations for the end of 2021 are good for the Guatemalan economy, there is uncertainty regarding what will happen in the second part of the year, as the vaccination process is progressing slowly.
According to World Bank forecasts published in June 2021, it is expected that at the end of the year, Guatemala's Gross Domestic Product will grow 3.6% year-on-year. See report "Global Economic Prospects".
For the international organization, during 2020, Guatemala's economy showed resilience, since in the context of the crisis caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, the GDP contracted only 1.5%.
According to the International Monetary Fund, in a context of favorable specialization of production and exports, resilience of remittances, and unprecedented support from monetary and fiscal policies, the drop in Guatemalan production was minimal compared to that reported in other Central American countries.
In order to have access to the vaccine against Covid-19, the number of people traveling abroad by air has increased in Guatemala in the last months, being the United States the main destination to which Guatemalans travel.
Data from the Guatemalan Institute of Migration (IGM) show that in the fifth month of the year there was an increase in the number of people who decided to travel abroad, most of them in search of access to the vaccine against the coronavirus.
As the pandemic has changed the ways of accomplishing tasks and telecommuting has gained ground in all markets, flexibility in terms of where and when to work will be one of the factors most valued by employees in this new reality.
The threats caused by the spread of Covid-19, caused companies globally to look for new ways of working. Most teams chose to readjust their dynamics and focused on promoting remote work.
For Fitch, the delay in vaccination campaigns constitutes a latent risk of a prolonged pandemic, which would delay the recovery of the region's economies and would cause negative pressures on the risk ratings to be issued in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings issued a bulletin for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean on May 25, in which it warned that given the deep economic contractions in the region and the moderate recovery outlook, there are threats of negative rating pressures.
After vehicle sellers in Guatemala in 2020 faced a complex panorama as a result of the crisis caused by the pandemic, during the first quarter of the year a 30% y-o-y increase in the number of new imported units was reported.
Statistics from the Superintendence of Tax Administration (SAT) detail that in the first three months of 2021, close to 9,300 new vehicles were imported in the country, a figure that exceeds by 30% what was reported in the same period of 2020.
Some of the innovations that the Guatemalan chain Pollo Campero has implemented in this new commercial reality include investing in the implementation of establishments that serve only home delivery service and setting up open spaces to serve more consumers.
As a result of the spread of Covid-19, restaurant chains were forced to close the table area. In this context, companies focused on mitigating their economic losses through food delivery sales.
In the first week of April 2021, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Dominican Republic and Guatemala were the countries in the region where the number of people visiting establishments identified as supermarkets was higher than the figures reported before the pandemic.
Over the course of the months and in the context of the reactivation of commercial activities, more Central American consumers have visited locations identified as supermarkets and pharmacies.
Reducing costs and barriers to foreign trade in Central American economies is key for the region to overcome the economic recession caused by the outbreak of Covid-19.
A report prepared by the World Bank explains that boosting economic activity and employing a higher percentage of the labor force are objectives that can be achieved through reforms that strengthen the private sector and attract investment.
Arguing that the measures applied by the government directly harm employees and owners of restaurants and bars, a group of businessmen in Guatemala filed a legal action in the Constitutional Court.
Restrictions to productive activity have already been applied for days, since with the purpose of promoting actions aimed at interrupting the epidemiological chain of the Covid-19 disease, on April 17 Ministerial Agreement 87-2021 was published in the Diario de Centroamerica, a regulatory framework that requires a 25% reduction in the capacity of shopping centers, shopping malls, convenience stores and restaurants.
As a result of the restrictions imposed by the Guatemalan Government, local businessmen estimate that sales in the commercial sector last weekend fell by up to 50% and the number of customers in restaurants and shopping centers decreased considerably.
In order to promote actions aimed at interrupting the epidemiological chain of the Covid-19 disease, Ministerial Agreement 87-2021 was published on April 17 in the Diario de Centroamerica, a regulatory framework that requires a 25% reduction in the capacity of shopping malls, commercial centers, convenience stores and restaurants.
Shortage of some vehicle lines due to the drop in production and lack of space in cargo ships are some of the factors that will affect distributors competing in the local market during 2021.
Companies affiliated to the Association and Importers and Distributors of Motor Vehicles (Aidva), sold during last year 27,273 units, a figure that is lower by 7% than what was reported in 2019.
During 2020 in all countries of the region, construction activity decreased considerably and Central American cement imports stagnated, this adverse scenario is explained by the economic crisis generated by the pandemic.
The construction industry statistics system, which is part of the interactive platform "Construction in Central America" of CentralAmericaData's Business Intelligence area, compiles the most important industry data for each of the countries in the region.
The oversupply of office space and changes in the dynamics and ways of working of companies have led the office rental market to a corrective or adjustment phase, which is mainly evidenced by the downward pressure on rental prices.
At the beginning of 2021, CentralAmericaData expected that in the coming years, 4 out of 5 companies will bet on hybrid work modalities, which include face-to-face and remote activities. This phenomenon will force office supply to adjust to the new market conditions.
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