For the next few months, it is estimated that in the Guatemalan market, sales of men's pants will decrease by about 5% from the levels reported prior to the change in the business scenario.
The impact that the crisis will have on companies related to the textile, leather and clothing sector in Central America is estimated to be explained, to a greater extent, by the expected drop in sales of carpets and curtains.
Following the spread of the virus globally and the suspension of some production in China, several garment companies in the region have reported increases in their orders.
The spread of the epidemic has stopped much of the economic activity of the Asian giant, which is the largest exporter of textiles in the world.
From January to September last year, foreign purchases of clothing and accessories made by companies in Central America totaled $981 million, and 46% was imported from China and the United States.
Figures from the Trade Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption="Click to interact with graphics"]
Between 2010 and 2019 exports of textile companies in Guatemala reported an average annual growth of 2%, a rise that is attributed to demand from companies in the United States.
According to figures from the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the manufacture of clothing items was the sector that generated more foreign exchange during the past year, as revenues amounted to $ 1,397 million.
Because of the crisis that has been generated in several Asian countries by the presence of the coronavirus, the organizers of ExpoTrend Summer 2020 reported that the international event is suspended.
The event was to take place from February 10-12 at the Atlapa Convention Center in the Panamanian capital, however, due to the coronavirus outbreak, which has spread to several Asian cities, it was decided to cancel it.
If the international prices of bananas, coffee, sugar and palm oil do not improve, and if combined with a global economic recession, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador could stop exporting as much as $2.268 million altogether in 2021.
According to the report "Proceso de integración Centroamericana del Triángulo Norte: Escenarios de riesgo en la matriz de exportación" (Central American Integration Process of the Northern Triangle: Risk Scenarios in the Export Matrix), prepared by the Asociación de Investigación de Estudios Sociales (Asíes), garment making is another activity that could be affected in the coming years.
Last year, imports of garments and clothing accessories made by companies in Central America totaled $1.505 million, 3% more than what was purchased in 2017.
Figures from the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption="Click to interact with graphic"]
Because there is still no regulation for part-time employment in Guatemala, textile businessmen estimate that the country loses between 40 and 70 thousand jobs.
For representatives of the Costume and Textile Commission (Vestex), the high operating and labor costs in Guatemala cause businessmen to send cut pieces to Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua to be assembled.
During the first two months of the year, exports of the Guatemalan textile sector registered a 4% year-on-year increase, which is explained by demand from U.S. companies.
According to the most recent figures from the Bank of Guatemala, between the first two months of 2018 and the same period in 2019, overall exports fell from $1.808 million to $1.751 million.
Arguing that they should protect the local industry from dumping, the U.S. plans to impose temporary tariffs on imports of steel, textiles and footwear.
The tariffs that would be approved through the signing of presidential decrees would be valid for six months, which would be 15% for steel products, and 25% or 30% for imports of footwear and textiles.
In 2018, sales abroad totaled $11 billion, recording a minimum 0.3% increase compared to 2017, a performance attributed to international market factors.
After registering a 5% increase between 2016 and 2017, in 2018 exports did not report significant year-on-year increases, because international prices of some agricultural products are not going through their best.
After a 7% increase in exports during 2018, Guatemala's apparel and textile sector expects to reach $2 billion in sales this year.
Factors such as the crisis in Nicaragua and an increase in customer demand in the United States partly explain the growth reported last year by textile companies in Guatemala.
Businessmen consider that 2018 will be a year with record sales for the country, as they projected exports of $1.724 million, a figure that would exceed 12% of what was reported in 2017.
Representatives of the Apparel and Textile Industry Association (Vestex) reported that they have recently reviewed the figures, and they estimate that this year the sector will have double-digit growth compared to 2017.
Imports of garments and clothing accessories reached $332 million during the first three months of the year, 3% more than what was reported in the same period in 2017.
Figures from the information system of the Central American Clothing and Clothing Accessories Market, from the Trade Intelligence Area of CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption="Click to interact with the graph"]
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