Restrictions on mobilization due to the number of plates, the fear of using public transportation and the increase in demand for delivery services explain the 8% growth that Guatemala's vehicle fleet experienced between 2019 and 2020.
As a result of the outbreak of covid-19, during the second quarter of 2020, Guatemalan authorities decided to suspend ground passenger transportation and also imposed restrictions on the mobility of vehicles with private plates, which were applied based on their license plate number.
Due to the outbreak of covid-19 worldwide and restrictions on passenger transportation, only 1.01 million visitors arrived in the country during 2020, 68% less than what was reported in 2019, when 3.14 million tourists arrived.
Although the fall in tourist arrivals was generally resounding, during the last months of 2020 a more favorable behavior was reported.
During the mobile quarter from September to November 2020, the unemployment rate at the national level stood at 21.3%, which is lower than the 21.9% reported from August to October of the same year.
For the mobile quarter September, October and November 2020, the population of 15 years of age and older with an incidence of labor due to the effect of Covid-19 was 1.07 million people (26.7%), according to an official report.
Although forecasts at the start of the pandemic were pessimistic, during 2020 the country received remittances of $11.34 billion, an amount that is 8% higher than the $10.58 billion recorded in 2019.
According to the most recent report from the Bank of Guatemala, only in December, remittances amounted to $1.164 billion, 24% more than those reported in the same month in 2019, when the figure was $941 million.
Due to the crisis generated by the covid-19, in May 2020 the economic activity registered its worst decline by falling 31% in year-on-year terms, however, as of June minor decreases were reported and in September the drop was 22%.
The accumulated Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) from January to September 2020 registered a 18.3% decrease, compared to the same period in 2019, informed the General Comptroller of the Republic.
At the end of 2020, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador remained at the bottom of the Human Development Index ranking, while Costa Rica and Panama were better evaluated.
The report entitled The Next Frontier, Human Development and the Anthropocene, which was published on December 15, 2020 at the global level, updates the Human Development Index (HDI) that is calculated by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).
In the current scenario of economic crisis, during the third quarter of the year the unemployment rate nationwide stood at 22%, a proportion that is lower than the 24.4% reported for the mobile quarter from May to July.
According to the report released by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC), 42% of the people who were unemployed during the third quarter of 2020 said that they had less than three months to look for work.
After reporting the sale of only 96 vehicles in May, due to the quarantine decreed by the covid-19 outbreak, in July the figure rose to 1,112, in August to 1,398 and in September to 2,403 units.
The General Comptroller of the Republic has been reporting that in the context of restrictions to commercial activity due to the health emergency, sales have fallen considerably, since between September 2019 and the same month in 2020, the number of new units registered in the country decreased by 29%, from 3,408 to 2,403.
According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
In June 2020, in the context of confinement and the economic crisis, bank credit to the private sector reported an 8% year-on-year increase, but as of July growth began to slow and in September the increase was 5.7%.
According to figures from the Bank of Guatemala, total credit to the private sector began 2020 with a 5.7% year-on-year increase. As of March, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be detected and the government decreed restrictions on mobility, the growth of the credit portfolio accelerated, with a variation of 8% being reported during the third month of the year.
In the context of the health and economic crisis that the country is suffering, between 2019 and 2020 the average income per household decreased by 12%, and the incidence of poverty increased from 21% to 26%.
The average income per household according to the 2020 National Household Survey (Enaho) is ₡891,934 per month ($1,487), which represents a variation of -12.2% from the previous year, when it was at ₡1,016,358 ($1,694). In per capita terms, income is estimated at ₡326,483 ($544) per month, which represents a 13.2% decrease from the 2019 estimate, when it was at ₡376,333 ($627), both variations being statistically significant.
In the context of the economic crisis in Costa Rica, by the fourth quarter of 2020, 6% of employers plan to increase their payrolls, a share that doubles the 3% registered for the third quarter of the year.
Although Costa Rican employers report weak hiring intentions for the October-December period, these have improved slightly when compared to the July-September outlook.
After in May this year and in the context of the economic crisis, the IMAE in Guatemala registered a -12% year-on-year variation, during June 2020 the contraction of production was lower, reporting a 9% fall compared to the same month in 2019.
In the current economic crisis resulting from the spread of covid-19, the activities that have most boosted the drop in production are trade, tourism and transport, reported the Bank of Guatemala.
Due to the spread of the covid-19, family remittances sent to the country fell in March, April and May; however, the trend was reversed in June, when a 9% year-on-year variation was registered.
The most recent data from the Bank of Guatemala show that in the first six months of 2020 the country received remittances for $4.88 billion, an amount that is 1% lower than the $4.92 billion registered in the same period in 2019.
During April 2020 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity in the country reported a 35% year-on-year variation, a fall that is explained by the restrictions imposed following the outbreak of covid-19.
The most affected activities were: Construction, Hotels and Restaurants, Commerce, Manufacturing Industry, Other community, social and personal service activities, among others.
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