Between 2018 and 2019, the unemployment rate in the country did not vary significantly, falling by just 0.3% from 2.8% to 2.5%.
Data from the 2019 National Income and Employment Survey (ENEI 1), prepared by the National Statistics Institute (INE), show that at the time of the survey the unemployed population was 179,000, down from 194,000 in the ENEI I of 2018.
Guatemala, Huehuetenango, Quetzaltenango, Quiche, Totonican, San Marcos and Retalhuleu are the departments with the highest demand for household appliances.
According to the census sample conducted by the National Statistics Institute (INE), derived from the Population Census conducted in 2018, the areas that concentrate the greatest demand for household appliances match the areas that receive the most family remittances sent from abroad.
For Moody's, the withdrawal of the International Commission against Impunity weakens efforts to improve the rule of law in a country with high levels of corruption.
For Moody's, President Morales' decision to end the mandate of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) is a setback for the country because corruption is still widespread and institutions are still fragile.
The determination of how much and how the minimum wage should be regulated, something that occasionally seems to be done in an arbitrary manner and for political purposes, continues to be one of the factors that most confront Central American businessmen and governments.
In Costa Rica, a 3% increase in the minimum wage was approved for 2019; in El Salvador, an increase is expected to be discussed, and in Guatemala, the commission in charge of the issue reported that no increases will be made this year.
Between November of this year and the same month of 2017, the portfolio of loans granted by Guatemalan banks to the private sector increased 6%, which is caused by the behavior of loans in dollars.
According to figures from the Bank of Guatemala, between November 2017 and the same month in 2018, total credit to the private sector increased from $24.338 million to $25.877 million.
Because of the uncertainty in the local economy, so far this year in Guatemala the Quetzal has depreciated just over 5% against the U.S. dollar.
According to Banco de Guatemala figures, between January 1st and December 19th, 2018, the reference exchange rate increased from Q7.34 to Q7.75. This upward trend contrasts with the reported last year, since during 2017 the exchange rate dropped from Q7.53 to Q7.35.
Although some uncertainty is projected next year in Guatemala, because of the presidential and legislative elections scheduled for June, it is estimated that the economy will increase 3.2%.
According to the Center for National Economic Research (Cien), it is expected that in 2019 there will be some uncertainty derived from the changes in the three branches of government.
The lack of incentives for investment in extractive activity could be one of the reasons behind the downward trend in oil production in the country.
During the first ten months of the year, the country reported 2.78 million barrels of production, 5% less than the same period in 2017.
The Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) reported that the crude exploitation in the country continues its downward trend, since between the first ten months of 2017 and the same period this year, it fell from 2.93 million to 2.78 million barrels.
Because of the increase in energy demand, last year in Guatemala the Electricity Supply and Water Collection sector was the sector that explained the largest increase in the GDP calculation.
Notwithstanding the conflict that has affected the development of several hydroelectric projects, the electricity supply and water collection sector has reported year-on-year increases of more than 4.5% for the 2010-2018 period.
The number of mercantile companies that requested incorporation in the first quarter of the year decreased by 10% with respect to the same period in 2017.
The slow pace with which bank credit to the private sector has grown also reflects the lack of dynamism in the creation of new companies in Guatemala.The corruption cases that have not ceased appearing in the government and the suspension of operating permits, such as those for Minera San Rafael, are affecting credibility and confidence in investments.
As of March 2018, banks registered 6,230 agents and 8,668 establishments, 8% and 21% more than in the same month in 2017, while 337 branches were closed.
According to figures from the Superintendency of Banks, between the months of March 2017 and 2018, the number of banking agencies nationwide fell from 3,614 to 3,277, which is equivalent to a fall of 9%. This contrasts with the increases recorded in the number of agents and banking establishments.
Uncertainty caused by the complex political situation facing the country explains much of the stagnation in the growth of bank credit to the private sector.
Credit to the business sector has remained virtually unchanged since the end of last year to date, reflecting the difficulties faced by companies in planning investments in the short and medium term given the current political situation.Year-on-year growth stands at around 5%, a trend that has been maintained throughout the year.See: "Corruption, impunity and politics"
Absence of initiatives to cut spending and lack of dialogue with the business sector are the main criticisms of the tax reform bill proposed by the Executive Power.
In addition to the expected impact on the productive activities that will be affected, such as mining, one of the criticisms of the project is the absence of issues related to transparency in the use of resources, a key issue after the corruption cases revealed in 2015.
There is a proposal to exclude the electricity, telecommunications, banking and agribusiness sectors from the law proposal on competition, since they are already subject to regulation.
The proposal put forward by CABI to exclude these sectors is based on the fact that companies operating in these areas are already subject to regulation and supervision.
"If the calculations made for Guatemala in 2013 and 2014 are taken as a reference for other Central American countries, the volume of illegal trade in the region, could be between 3.4% and 4% of GDP".
"If the calculations made for Guatemala in 2013 and 2014 are taken as a reference for other Central American countries, the volume of illegal trade in the region, could be between 3.4% and 4% of GDP".
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