From January to September 2019, family remittances to Guatemala totaled $7.748 million, 14% more than in the same period in 2018.
The most recent figures from the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) indicate that in September 2019 the country received remittances of $892 million, 20% more than the $745 million recorded in the same month in 2018.
Although Guatemala and the U.S. have already signed an agreement on migration issues, the exchange rate reported a slight increase and the upward trend is expected to continue over the next few days.
President Trump's warning to Guatemala to impose export tariffs and taxes on remittances and transfers had a direct impact on the exchange market.
Data from the Banco de Guatemala indicate that between July 23 and 29 the price of the Quetzal with respect to the US dollar increased from Q7.64 to Q7.68, which according to the authorities is explained by the uncertainty generated by the possible sanctions against the country.
At the end of June in Guatemala, credit to the private sector registered a 7% year-on-year growth, which is explained by the upturn in mortgage and consumer loans.
Figures published by representatives of the Banco de Guatemala specify that at the end of the first semester of the year, the total credit to the private sector reached $26.571 million, amount that is 6.9% higher than that reported a year ago.
Although poor social indicators and a low tax burden are a threat to the country's progress, for Fitch the Guatemalan economy has the capacity to overcome external adversities.
After the last visit of Fitch Ratings to Guatemala, representatives of the rating agency expressed the opinion that health, education and security indicators, together with the tax situation, are issues that should concern the country.
The behavior of credit to the private sector, public spending, imports and remittances would explain the higher growth expected for the economy this year.
The Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) reported that this year's economic growth is projected to range between 3% and 3.8%, with a central value of 3.4%, up from the 3.1% reported during 2018.
In 2018, the construction sector in Guatemala registered a nearly 4% growth, which reinforces the upward trend that has been reported since 2011.
Data from the Guatemalan Chamber of Construction (CGC) detail that from 2011 the sector has reported growth rates, reaching its highest level in 2014 when the recorded increase was 4.4%.
The growth of family remittances, the recovery of credit to the private sector and the upturn in investment in capital goods would determine a better economic performance this year.
In a forum organized by the Chamber of Industry of Guatemala, representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) and Central American Business Intelligence (CABI), agreed that this year the country's economy could register a better performance than in 2018.
The Bank of Guatemala expects next year's economic growth to be better than in 2018, which would be caused by higher public spending and the growth of family remittances.
Authorities of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) informed that the Guatemalan economy will close 2018 with a nearly 3% growth, however, for next year is expected that the increase in GDP will be in the range between 3% and 3.8%.
Between 2014 and 2017, the fiscal deficit increased to an average of 1.4% of GDP, and for this year the authorities plan to end at 1.6% and in 2019 it could increase to 2.5%.
Representatives of the Ministry of Public Finance informed that some of the increase in the fiscal deficit foreseen for next year will be caused by the fact that the General Budget of Income and Expenditure of the State for Fiscal Year 2019, which will ascend to $11,390 million, will allow assigning more resources for infrastructure maintenance.
Guatemala exported $10 million worth of electricity to the neighboring country in the first seven months, significantly more than the one million dollars reported in 2017.
Sergio Recinos, Banco de Guatemala president, said to Dca.gob.gt that "... With regard to this activity, greater dynamism is expected in electricity generation associated with the expected increase in external demand from Mexico and the restructuring of the energy matrix'.”
Since the beginning of the year Banco de Guatemala has intervened in the foreign exchange market buying foreign currency in order to curb appreciation of the local currency against the dollar, but in recent weeks it has been selling currencies in order to minimize depreciation.
In recent weeks the exchange rate of the Quetzal against the US dollar has been trending upwards, which has forced the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) to sell foreign currency in the foreign exchange market.So far this year, up until September 24, it has had to intervene selling $402 million worth of foreign currency.
In the eighth month of 2018, credit granted by Guatemalan banks to the private sector totaled $26,168 million, 5% more than was reported between January and August of 2017.
The latest figures from Banco de Guatemala show that credit to the private sector in the eighth month of 2018 grew by 4.8% with respect to the same month in 2017, rising from $24.970 million to $26.168 million.This increase was below the increase of 5.1% registered between August 2016 and 2017.
Due to the eruption of the Volcano of Fire and suspension of the operations of the San Rafael mining company, combined with a drop in the international prices of sugar, coffee and natural rubber, the economy is expected to grow less in 2018.
According to the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the projection for economic growth for this year is currently 3.4%, with a range of between 3% and 3.8%.However, due to the events registered throughout the year, it is expected that the growth rate could be reduced to 3%.
The poor performance of the mining sector and the decline in the export price of sugar and coffee could have a negative impact on the outlook for economic growth this year.
According to Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the recent performance of short-term indicators of economic activity such as the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, imports and family remittances, among other things, they anticipate a performance consistent with the estimate for the end of the year, which ranges between 3% and 3.8%.
Explained by the dynamics of economic activity and the flow of family remittances, the Central Bank estimates that this year the economy will grow between 3% and 3.8%.
According to the authorities at Banco de Guatemala (Banguat), by 2019 the expectation is that the economy will grow between 3.1% and 4.1%, and in relation to inflation for this year and next, it is expected that the Growth rate will remain close to 4%.
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