For Fitch, the delay in vaccination campaigns constitutes a latent risk of a prolonged pandemic, which would delay the recovery of the region's economies and would cause negative pressures on the risk ratings to be issued in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings issued a bulletin for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean on May 25, in which it warned that given the deep economic contractions in the region and the moderate recovery outlook, there are threats of negative rating pressures.
Arguing that a lower economic growth and a higher fiscal deficit are expected due to the effects of the covid-19, the agency decided to modify from BB to BB- the country risk rating.
The situation of the tax burden in the country is another factor affecting Fitch's decision, which was communicated to the Banco de Guatemala through the preliminary bulletin that the agency sent to the authorities.
Fitch Ratings agreed to change the perspective of the region's banks from stable to negative, arguing that the current health crisis will affect financial institutions in all countries.
Considering the measures that countries have adopted in the last 15 days in economic matters, following the spread of covid-19, Fitch expects that there will be a decrease in the issuance of loans.
Arguing that continuity in economic policies is expected after the change of administration in January 2020, Standard & Poor's maintained the country's credit risk rating at BB-.
From S&P report:
S&P Global Ratings confirmed its long-term sovereign credit ratings of "BB-" in long-term foreign currency and "BB" in Guatemala. The outlook for our long-term ratings remains stable.
As a response to Giammattei's triumph, the rating agency maintained Guatemala's debt rating at BB with a negative outlook, warning of the difficulties the new president will face in governing without a legislative majority.
The triumph of the candidate of the VAMOS party did not surprise the analysts of the rating agency Fitch Ratings, for whom the political and fiscal scenario of the coming months will be the same as it has been seen so far.
Institutional problems and lower levels of economic growth compared to other countries with the same risk rating, could cause in the future a degradation of Guatemala's debt rating.
Arguing that the economy reports stable growth, and that a prudent management of monetary and fiscal policy has been made, the agency decided to maintain in Ba1, with a stable perspective, the country's credit rating.
The low fiscal deficit caused by strict controls on public spending and reduced indexes of public indebtedness, as well as a demonstrated economic resilience to extra-economic events, are other of Moody's arguments.
The change from stable to negative in the classification perspective of foreign currency debt would not have, at least in the medium term, significant effects on the Guatemalan financial system.
On April 11, 2019 Fitch Ratings ratified the long-term foreign currency default rating of "BB", but changed the outlook from stable to negative.
The rating agency argued that the revision of the Negative Perspective of Guatemala's debt rating reflects political tension and greater uncertainty in the agents, in addition to a constant erosion in the low tax collection.
Guatemalan businessmen assure that the change from Stable to Negative made by Fitch Ratings in the country's risk perspective should be taken seriously, since investments could stagnate.
On April 11, Fitch announced that it maintained its "BB" rating for long-term foreign currency debt default, but decided to modify the outlook because the country reflects political tension and greater uncertainty in agents, as well as a constant erosion in the government's low tax collection.
Fitch Ratings confirmed the long-term foreign currency debt default rating of "BB", but changed the outlook from stable to negative.
The review of Guatemala's negative outlook reflects political tension and greater uncertainty in agents, as well as a constant erosion in the government's low tax collection, the rating agency argued.
Although poor social indicators and a low tax burden are a threat to the country's progress, for Fitch the Guatemalan economy has the capacity to overcome external adversities.
After the last visit of Fitch Ratings to Guatemala, representatives of the rating agency expressed the opinion that health, education and security indicators, together with the tax situation, are issues that should concern the country.
The latest risk ratings for the issuance of long-term debt of Central American economies identify Panama as the most attractive country to invest in.
On March 8, Moody's decided to raise its long-term issuer rating in foreign currency from Baa2 to Baa1, arguing that the outlook remains more favorable in the medium term.
The governments of Costa Rica and Nicaragua will face greater challenges in obtaining financing in external markets, because of the lowering of their risk ratings by international agencies.
Arguing that Costa Rica reflects consistently large fiscal deficits, short-term financing needs because of a strong repayment schedule and budget financing constraints, Fitch Ratings reported on January 15 that the country's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating was downgraded from BB to B+.
For Moody's, the withdrawal of the International Commission against Impunity weakens efforts to improve the rule of law in a country with high levels of corruption.
For Moody's, President Morales' decision to end the mandate of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) is a setback for the country because corruption is still widespread and institutions are still fragile.
Arguing a moderate fiscal deficit, low level of public debt and an improvement in the country's external position, Standard & Poor´s kept the country's credit risk rating at BB-.
From the press release of the Banco de Guatemala:
October 31, 2018. The risk rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) confirmed the rating of credit risk for Guatemala in BB- and maintained the stable outlook on Monday, October 29th.