The agile execution of economic stimulus programs, the considerable increase in public debt and the need to accelerate the process of economic reactivation are the lights, shadows and challenges identified a year after Alejandro Giammattei took office as president of Guatemala.
The fire of the Legislative Palace and the capture of more than 30 people, is the balance of the violent demonstrations that took place on November 21 in the capital of the country, after a discontent was generated due to the approval of the National Budget 2021.
During the early morning of November 18, the Congress of the Republic approved the Income and Expenditure Budget of the State, which amounted to approximately $12,815 million.
After the announcement of the intention to increase the tax on the distribution of cement and fuel in Guatemala, businessmen believe that in this scenario of incipient economic recovery it is not a good idea to increase the tax burden.
In order to face the effects of the economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, Guatemalan authorities are already beginning to discuss the fiscal policy to be applied in 2021.
In this scenario of economic crisis, falling tax revenues and the need to finance recovery programs, in Guatemala and Costa Rica it is already proposed to increase current taxes and create new ones.
Guatemalan authorities are already beginning to discuss the fiscal policy they will apply in 2021, when the economy will have to face the effects of the economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak.
In this regional context of economic crisis, falling fiscal revenues and increasing public debt, Costa Rica's debt level is expected to rise to 75% of GDP by 2021, and in the case of El Salvador, the indicator could exceed 85%.
The outbreak of covid-19 in Central America forced the government to declare severe household quarantines and to restrict several economic activities, restrictions that in some cases are still in place after five months of health and economic crisis.
The country issued $500 million in the international market with a 12-year term, at a rate of 5.37%, and $700 million in the 30-year term, at an interest rate of 6.13%.
The operation was carried out through the Bank of America (BOFA), one of the most important investment banks in the world, chosen through a competitive process, informed the Public Finance Ministry (Minfin).
Arguing that a lower economic growth and a higher fiscal deficit are expected due to the effects of the covid-19, the agency decided to modify from BB to BB- the country risk rating.
The situation of the tax burden in the country is another factor affecting Fitch's decision, which was communicated to the Banco de Guatemala through the preliminary bulletin that the agency sent to the authorities.
The Ministry of Finance issued Treasury Bonds for an amount equivalent to $116 million, of which $52 million was in local currency and $64 million in foreign currency.
The overall amount of Treasury Bonds issued by the Republic of Guatemala so far, amounts to $414 million, corresponding to Fiscal Year 2020, of which one million correspond to Treasury Bonds issuances for small investors.
The Ministry of Finance issued Treasury Bonds for an amount equivalent to $215 million, of which $155 million was in local currency and $60 million in foreign currency.
The amount awarded represents 8.42% of the total value for which the Global Representative Certificate for Fiscal Year 2020 was issued, including issuances for Small Investors, officials said.
For this year, the government of Guatemala plans to issue an amount equivalent to $2.392 million, which includes new issues and titles that will expire soon and will be awarded again.
According to information from the Directorate of Public Credit, an entity of the Ministry of Finance (Minfin), during 2020 new issues will reach $ 1.845 million and collections or roll over, titles that expire but will be re-issued in the market, will be of $547 million.
Arguing that continuity in economic policies is expected after the change of administration in January 2020, Standard & Poor's maintained the country's credit risk rating at BB-.
From S&P report:
S&P Global Ratings confirmed its long-term sovereign credit ratings of "BB-" in long-term foreign currency and "BB" in Guatemala. The outlook for our long-term ratings remains stable. We also affirmed our short-term 'B' foreign and local currency ratings in Guatemala, the international agency reported.
With the deadline for Congress to approve the 2020 public budget expiring, the Guatemalan government must work with the 2019 budget, so some investments in public infrastructure could come to a halt in the first months of the year.
Last November 30, the deadline for the Congress of the Republic to approve the draft budget of income and expenditures of the nation for 2020, which amounted to Q91.9 billion ($11.9 billion) and was not endorsed by most deputies.
Standard & Poor's has given a B+ rating to the $1.5 billion debt issue that Costa Rica expects to place in the international market in November.
"Global Ratings today assigned a "B+" rating to the prospective reopening of Costa Rica's notes which have a 7.158% rate maturing in 2045 and a "B+" rating in its planned issuance of notes maturing in 2031, the latter issue still does not have a defined trading rate," the rating agency said on November 8.
The authorities that will assume the government in 2020 in Guatemala could evaluate options to tax temporarily some sectors, however, there would be a risk that these taxes become permanent.
The Ministry of Finance Awarded Treasury Bonds in local currency for $12 million, at a cut-off rate of 6.45% and maturing in November 2039.
The global amount awarded of Treasury Bonds of the Republic of Guatemala up to date, including those made through public biddings and auctions ascended to Q.18,179.65 million ($2.360 million), corresponding to Fiscal Year 2019, of which Q.19.01 million ($2.46 million correspond to the awards of Treasury Bonds for small investors), informed an official source.
español
2485