The Nicaraguan government projects for the 2019-2020 agricultural cycle the planting of 1.5 million hectares of land, 3% more than in the previous period, a very unbelievable forecast for businessmen.
The 2019-2020 Production, Consumption and Commerce Plan, which was prepared by the government without the support of the private sector, explains that it is projected to plant 1.5 million hectares and harvest 1.4 million hectares, which would represent a 3.1% increase compared to the previous cycle.
During the second month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.8%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.2%.
In February 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 63.5 points (63.1 in the previous month), where 46% is explained by the result of current economic activity and 54% by future activity, explains the Central Bank of Honduras.
The exporters' guild estimates that the new year will be difficult for the country's economy, since there are multiple factors that threaten the growth of foreign sales.
The Association of Producers and Exporters of Nicaragua (APEN) reported that the expectation of year-on-year increase in export revenue for 2018 ranged between 6% and 10%, however, there was a 1% decrease.
Excluding Nicaragua, the economies of Central American countries are projected to increase 2%, however, for the business sector some of the expectations may be too optimistic.
The 5.6% growth estimate for Panama is too optimistic for the private sector, as no major changes are expected compared to 2018.
Higher domestic demand and increased investment are the factors that will influence the 3.3% growth forecast for the regional economy next year.
According to forecasts by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in 2019 Panama will be the economy with the highest growth in Central America, with an expected rate of 5.6%.
Because of a possible decline in the dynamism of the advanced economies, the volume of Central American exports is expected to increase by 0.4% in 2018 and by 2.6% in 2019.
According to a report by the Secretariat of Central American Economic Integration (Sieca), a possible decline in trade dynamism in advanced economies is expected by the end of 2018, which could generate consequences in international markets, with downward scenarios in 2019, between two and three percentage points with respect to 2018. This is mainly related to growing trade tensions and more complicated market access conditions than in previous years, involving important trading partners.
Between 2014 and 2017, the fiscal deficit increased to an average of 1.4% of GDP, and for this year the authorities plan to end at 1.6% and in 2019 it could increase to 2.5%.
Representatives of the Ministry of Public Finance informed that some of the increase in the fiscal deficit foreseen for next year will be caused by the fact that the General Budget of Income and Expenditure of the State for Fiscal Year 2019, which will ascend to $11,390 million, will allow assigning more resources for infrastructure maintenance.
The International Coffee Organization estimates that global demand will reach 175 million sacks of 60 kilos in 2020, driven by the markets of China, South Korea and Russia.
The sophistication of consumers and a growing preference for coffee in markets such as South Korea, China and Russia will be part of the main factors driving the increase in demand for the grain in the coming years.
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The financial crisis is still spreading and deepening and is making inroads on the real economy.
Forecasting is always “work in progress” but the exceptional situation today makes it feel like shooting at a moving target from a ship on the high seas.
Auto dealers in El Salvador and Guatemala are facing a slump in sales of new cars this year. In Honduras and Nicaragua sales are flat, and only Costa Rica and Panama report higher sales.
Distributors are engaged in a promotions war to attract buyers and increase sales.
Offers to buyers include zero down payments, interest-free credit for the rest of the year, fuel credits of up to 2,000 dollars, forgiving interest payments up to 1,265 dollars, monthly payments of just 31 dollars a month, and gifts of appliances and television sets.
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