Between May and June of this year, the average lending rate of commercial banks has fallen from 11.52% to 10.28%, a drop that is explained by the high level of liquidity of the banks and the low placement of credits.
The pandemic that caused the outbreak of covid-19 has hit the financial system, since due to the current market conditions, the active rates have come down between the months of May and July.
In Nicaragua, the authorities have not published information on the Monthly Index of Economic Activity since February 2019, when the year-on-year fall was 7.5%, a situation that prevents businessmen from making decisions based on the real situation of the economy.
Between the first semester of 2018 and the same period of 2019, the flows of Foreign Direct Investment reaching the country decreased by 25%, a decrease that is explained by the uncertainty that predominates among businessmen, derived from the political and economic crisis.
According to official figures, from January to June of this year the country received $364 million in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which is less than the $483 million received in the first six months of 2018.
Beginning August 29, Nicaragua will begin to negotiate changes in the minimum wage, but the businessmen ask that the decision-making process consider the levels of inflation and fall in production.
Because of decreasing demand for credit since April last year, banks in the Nicaraguan plaza are filling up with money they can not place in the market.
According to estimates by the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides) based on official figures, so far this crisis has boosted the liquidity of banks, increasing the proportion of available money that financial institutions have with respect to their obligations to the public, going from 31.76% reported in March 2018 to 46.73% recorded in May this year.
If the country does not provide an early solution to the socio-political crisis it has been going through since April 2018, it is projected that the economy could decline between 7% and 11% during 2019.
The Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), presented the "Informe de Coyuntura" (Situation Report), which explains that if the socio-political crisis continues this year there will be a greater fall in the economy compared to the 4% reported in 2018.
Businessmen in Nicaragua reported that from January to September sales of furniture and wood showed a decrease of 60% compared to the same period in 2017.
According to the second Monitoring of Economic Activities in Nicaragua, of the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep) and the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), under the political and social crisis that has affected the country for more than six months, sales of the furniture sector have reported negative results.
In September, sales of houses in Nicaragua reported a fall of 80%, and sales of vehicles and hotels were reduced 75% and 70%, respectively, compared to the same month last year.
According to the Second Monitoring of Economic Activities in Nicaragua, prepared by the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep) and the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), during September sales of advertising agencies fell 48%, those of distributors of medical equipment 40% and those of restaurants 35%, compared to the ninth month of 2017.
From January 2016 to December 2017, 88,932 new workers signed up to the social security scheme in Nicaragua, but since the crisis began in April, more than 86,000 formal jobs have been lost.
The number of formal jobs that the Nicaraguan economy took two years to generate, disappeared in the first three months of the political and social crisis that began on April 18.
In Nicaragua, President Ortega has revoked the controversial law to reform the National Institute of Social Security, but demonstrations continue and business leaders are calling on the government to have a dialogue.
Five days of protests, looting and several deaths in different areas of the country is the result of the controversial reform that the Ortega administration announced on Wednesday, and which only five days later, it had to revoke in order to try to ease social tension.The reform aimed to raise the contribution paid by companies by 2% and employees' contribution by 5%, effective from July.The presidential decree 04-2018 was published this Monday in the Gazette number 76.
At the end of the year the Nicaraguan economy could achieve a growth of 4.6%, a tenth less than in 2016, continuing the process of deceleration seen over the last two years.
From a report by Funides:
The Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUNIDES) presents its second Economic Situation Report for 2017, showing that economic growth for 2017 will be 4.6 percent, one tenth lower than last year, continuing the process of deceleration seen in the last two years.
A study by Funides details the numbers for the sector and points to factors impeding further development such as low productivity due to lack of genetic development and mechanization, in addition to excessive dependence on climate.
According to the Nicaraguan Foundation for Social Development (Funides), the main challenges facing the livestock sector are low productivity, high dependence on climate, lack of genetic development, little mechanization, higher demands from international markets, sanitary barriers and those of neighboring countries, lack of public services and infrastructure and low industrialization.
In order to speed up timeframes and procedures, employers have asked that the requirement be eliminated or that the the timeframe, currently one month, be extended to at least one year.
In Central America, only authorities in Nicaragua are demanding compliance with fiscal solvency, which directly affects the competitiveness of local exporters against the rest of the region.
Funides projections for conditions in 2016 are similar to those of 2015 and it estimates that the economy will grow by between 4.5 and 4.7%.
From the executive summary of the "First Economic Situation Report for 2016 " by Funides:
Growth projections for the world economy in 2016 have decreased from 3.4 to 3.2 percent according to the latest projections by the International Monetary Fund.