After the multi-sector dialogue in Costa Rica was concluded, the main risk qualifiers agree that because the agreements signed to reduce the deficit are not enough, the government should execute its fiscal policies in a timely manner.
Although Costa Rica's fiscal situation was already precarious before the health and economic crisis that led to the covid-19 outbreak began, the scenario started to worsen since March of this year.
Arguing that economic strength has weakened as a result of social tensions and is likely to leave a lasting negative impact, the rating agency reduced the country's credit risk rating from B2 to B3.
"The risk of reduced access to official external credit is creating financing challenges and restricting the authorities' ability to support economic activity," the agency's report explains.
Moodys confirmed that the country's investment grade is Baa1 with a stable outlook, arguing that the economy has a solid performance and that it reflects stability at the macro level.
In 2020, Moody's expects the growth of the Panamanian economy to recover to 4.5%, boosted mainly by a full year of production in the copper mine, according to the forecasts of the international agency.
Institutional problems and lower levels of economic growth compared to other countries with the same risk rating, could cause in the future a degradation of Guatemala's debt rating.
Arguing that the economy reports stable growth, and that a prudent management of monetary and fiscal policy has been made, the agency decided to maintain in Ba1, with a stable perspective, the country's credit rating.
The low fiscal deficit caused by strict controls on public spending and reduced indexes of public indebtedness, as well as a demonstrated economic resilience to extra-economic events, are other of Moody's arguments.
For Moody's, the expansion of the Panamanian economy forecast for the next few years would allow bank credit to grow 8% in 2019 and 9% in 2020.
According to estimates by analysts of the rating agency Moody´s Investors Service is that for the 2019-2014 five-year period is that the Panamanian economy will achieve growth between 5% and 5.5%, behavior that will favor the dynamism of the banking sector.
Moody's assigned to Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica de Panamá a Baa1 issuer rating, arguing that it reflects key credit strengths and is the only electricity transmission company in the country.
Gilberto Ferrari, general manager of Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica (Etesa) explained to Panamaamerica.com.pa that "... This qualification is one of the most important milestones in the history of the company and the energy sector of our country.
The latest risk ratings for the issuance of long-term debt of Central American economies identify Panama as the most attractive country to invest in.
On March 8, Moody's decided to raise its long-term issuer rating in foreign currency from Baa2 to Baa1, arguing that the outlook remains more favorable in the medium term.
The inclusion of Panama in the list of high-risk countries with strategic deficiencies in the battle against money laundering and terrorism would increase the operating costs of foreign banks in the country.
A few days ago, the European Commission included the Central American country in a list of 23 nations classified as territories with lax measures and controls against money laundering and financing of terrorism.
For Moody's, the withdrawal of the International Commission against Impunity weakens efforts to improve the rule of law in a country with high levels of corruption.
For Moody's, President Morales' decision to end the mandate of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) is a setback for the country because corruption is still widespread and institutions are still fragile.
Standard and Poor's announced that it downgraded Costa Rican bonds from BB- to B+, adding to Moody's downgrade in early December.
Standard and Poor's (S&P) reported that the decision was made because the country's fiscal situation could generate a continuous increase in the general government's net debt burden.
“If the recent tax reform is not effectively implemented, and if additional fiscal measures are implemented if necessary, a continuous increase in the net debt burden of the general government could be generated, which will contribute to higher interest expenditures," explains the S&P report."
The rating agency reduced the long-term and senior unsecured bond issuer ratings of the Costa Rican government from Ba2 to Ba1 and changed the outlook to negative.
According to Moody's, among the main factors behind the decline is the continued and projected worsening of debt metrics in the back of large deficits despite fiscal consolidation efforts.
Fitch Ratings reported that the country is under observation and for now maintains the rating at BB, awaiting what happens with the fiscal reform and the payment of government debt at the end of the year.
Fitch Ratings, a U.S. risk rating agency, reported on November 15th that Costa Rica would be close to a sovereign rating downgrade because of the country's public finances situation.
Moody's downgraded the long-term issuer ratings and the Costa Rican government's unsecured bonds.
Yesterday the risk rating agency reported that expectations of a continued decline in fiscal indicators and evidence of increased financing needs are some of the reasons behind the decision to revise the country's debt rating.
Rocio Aguilar, Finance Minister, explained to Crhoy.com that Moody's warning is "...
Citing a long history of fiscal and monetary policy characterized by prudent management, the rating agency Moody's maintained the country's credit risk rating in Ba1.
From a statement issued by the Bank of Guatemala:
June 2018.Moody's Investors Service maintains the credit risk rating for Guatemala at Ba1 with a stable outlook.