"Growth remains susceptible to adverse shocks to global growth, economic and socio-political stress in Nicaragua, the continued weakness in consumer and business confidence, and uncertainty regarding the implementation of the fiscal reform.”
After the slowdown in growth between 2017 and early 2019, the economy has recovered since mid-2019, as a result of a rebound in services, agriculture and manufacturing, which produced an estimated 2.1% growth in 2019, reported the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
As a result of the economic slowdown and the imbalance in public finances, Costa Rica faces a complex and high-risk future, in which the margins for action and maneuver will be increasingly limited.
The State of the Nation 2019 report explains that the economic slowdown and imbalance in public finances created a scenario of great complexity and risk, both economic and political, which aggravated the structural weaknesses or "blind spots" of the national development style.
The entity and the Honduran government agreed to "a combined credit facility of Special Drawing Rights and 24-month Extended Credit Service, for $311 million."
For the country's business sector, the agreement between the International Monetary Fund and Honduras "represents a commitment by the government to maintain macroeconomic stability, a fundamental pillar that favors the country's competitiveness and creates the minimum conditions for the promotion of investment. See "Cohep Expects IMF Agreement to Maintain Macroeconomic Stability".
For the IMF, the political agreements reached by the elected government in El Salvador with the parties that dominate the Legislative Assembly will be crucial for the successful implementation of a country agenda.
The IMF staff team visited San Salvador during March 11—22 for the 2019 Article IV consultation and held candid discussions with the current authorities, the President-elect, parliamentarians, business community, and social partners.
Arguing that inflation expectations are within the target range, in Costa Rica the Central Bank decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged.
The last increase in the monetary policy rate was made in early November 2018, when the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) decided to raise it from 5% to 5.25%, arguing that forecasts suggest that inflation in 2019 could be above the upper limit of the target range.
According to the IMF, in the first half of the year, the Salvadoran economy increased above the estimated potential, the inflation remained low and the fiscal position was better than expected.
From the International Monetary Fund statement:
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Ms. Alina Carare, visited San Salvador from November 12 to 16, 2018 to discuss recent economic and financial developments.
Following the IMF assessment, the country's macroeconomic conditions are expected to remain strong and growth is expected to be solid in coming years.
From the International Monetary Fund statement:
November 16th, 2018. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Esteban Vesperoni visited Tegucigalpa from November 12-16 to assess recent economic developments since the completion of the 2018 Article IV consultation in May and the medium-term outlook. At the end of the visit, Mr. Vesperoni issued the following statement:
The State of the Nation 2018 Report explains that during 2017 and the first months of 2018 the progress of Costa Rica's economy has been adverse and, in the short term, the prospects for economic opportunities, solvency and stability are negative.
Most of the drivers of Costa Rica's economy have declined in recent months, resulting in Costa Rica going through a period of multiple economic and political risks.
Arguing that the predictions suggest that inflation in 2019 could be above the upper limit of the target range, the Central Bank of Costa Rica decided to raise the monetary policy rate from 5% to 5.25%.
From the statement of the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
November 1st, 2018. The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), in the session of October 31st, 2018, decided to increase the monetary policy rate (TPM) by 25 basic points to 5.25% annually. The Board of Directors also agreed to increase the gross interest rate on one-day deposits (DON) by 19 basis points to 3.23% annually. Both increases are in effect from November 1st, 2018.
Preserving macroeconomic and financial stability and restoring private sector confidence are part of the IMF's recommendations to the Nicaraguan government to mitigate the impact of the political and economic crisis.
A team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Nicaragua, and after evaluating the situation of the economy after more than six months of social and political crisis, forecasts a 4% contraction of the Gross Domestic Product by 2018.
S & P has downgraded the debt rating from B + to B, arguing that the escalation of the internal conflict has weakened governance, and the rating could be reduced again in the next 12 months if the violence continues to rise.
From a press release by Standard & Poor´s:
Heightened domestic conflict and ongoing violence have weakened governability and impaired the predictability and effectiveness of policy implementation in Nicaragua, in our view.
In the first months of the year, the pace of economic activity, employment and bank credit have been slowing down, complicating Costa Rica's economic outlook in the coming months.
During the fourth month of the year, economic activity reported an interannual growth of 2.8%, an increase that is below the average growth rate of 3% reported in the last eight years. On top of this awards of bank loans went up 6% with respect to February 2017, half the rate it was growing at a year ago.
Due to the recent strike in the construction sector, the entity has reduced projections of economic growth for this year from 5.6% to 4.6%.
However, recovery from the impact of the strike and the entry into operation of a large copper mine will lead to an upward revision of around one percentage point in the growth projection of 5.8% for 2019.
In spite of the economic progress that has been achieved in Costa Rica, employment growth has stagnated, results in education are deficient, and anti-competitive regulations continue to hinder business development.
The latest OECD economic study on Costa Rica details the factors that support the significant socio-economic achievements of the last decades, as well as the pending challenges to ensure sustainable and more inclusive growth.
Last year, economic activity and employment generation continued to rise, cumulative inflation reached 5.7% and international reserves were strengthened.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Nicaragua:
For the eighth consecutive year, Nicaragua continued to register a positive macroeconomic performance. Economic activity and job creation continued to grow and inflation remained stable, reaching a cumulative variation of 5.68 percent. The management of public finances continued to be prudent, international reserves were strengthened, while the financial system remained sound. An improved international context and good rainfall favored growth of exports, as well as an increase in the flow of family remittances and tourism which contributed to the strengthening of the country's external position.
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