Since 2018, the price of the banana box that Costa Rican producers sell to the German supermarket chain ALDI is falling, there is concern that other European chains will begin to negotiate lower prices.
Representatives of the National Banana Corporation of Costa Rica (Corbana) explained that in 2018 the 18.14 kilo banana box sold to ALDI was quoted at 13.55 Euros.
If the international prices of bananas, coffee, sugar and palm oil do not improve, and if combined with a global economic recession, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador could stop exporting as much as $2.268 million altogether in 2021.
According to the report "Proceso de integración Centroamericana del Triángulo Norte: Escenarios de riesgo en la matriz de exportación" (Central American Integration Process of the Northern Triangle: Risk Scenarios in the Export Matrix), prepared by the Asociación de Investigación de Estudios Sociales (Asíes), garment making is another activity that could be affected in the coming years.
In the eighth month of the year, the FAO food price index fell 2% from July 2019, explained by the decline in the prices of sugar and main cereals.
From FAO's monthly report:
» The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 169.8 points in August 2019, down 1.1 percent (almost 2.0 points) from July but still 1.1 percent higher than in August 2018.
In the sixth month of the year, the FAO food price index increased by 1% compared to the same month in 2018, explained by the increase in the prices of cereals, meat and sugar.
From FAO's monthly report:
The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 173 points in June 2019, down marginally (0.3 percent) from May and very close to its level in June 2018.
In the fourth month of the year, the FAO food price index fell 2% over the same month in 2018, explained by the decline in prices of meat, cereals and vegetable oils.
From FAO's monthly report:
The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) rose in April 2019 to around 170 points, 1.5 percent (2.5 points) higher than in March and marking its highest value since June 2018.
In the third month of the year, the FAO food price index fell 4% from March 2018, explained by the decline in the prices of meat, cereals, vegetable oils and sugar.
From FAO's monthly report:
» The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) held steady in March 2019, averaging 167 points and still hovering around its highest value since August 2018.
The fall in international grain prices in recent years has increasingly affected producers in the region, who at current prices do not even reach the production costs.
Since years ago, international sugar prices have reported a clear downward trend, and in the last twelve months the quintal price registered a fall of 23%.
In the first days of January last year, the international price of sugar was above $15 per quintal, and that value has been decreasing in recent months, falling to $12 per quintal at the beginning of this year, according to Investing.com.
Prices for all coffee groups fell in July 2018, though the largest month-on month decrease occurred for Brazilian Naturals, which declined by 4% to 110.54 US cents/lb.
From the monthly report by the ICO:
In July 2018, the ICO composite indicator price decreased by 2.9% to an average of 107.20 US cents/lb, which is the lowest monthly average for July since 2007, when the monthly composite indicator reached 106.20 US cents/lb.
Low international prices, overproduction and greater competition from markets such as the Philippines, is worrying Costa Rican pineapple exporters.
On top of those factors is also the fact that exports to China have not grown as much as expected, due to complications faced in getting the product there in perfect condition.According to the exporters themselves, this difficulty"... is taking Costa Rica out of the market, as it takes between 28 and 30 days to arrive and it is estimated that a maximum of 20 days is required to maintain the quality intact."
After a slight increase in the first month of 2018, in February international prices fell by 1%, due to the negative behavior of three groups of the Arabica variety.
From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:
After a slight rise in January following a three-month decline, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator fell by 1.2% in February 2018 to 114.19 US cents/lb.
After reaching its lowest level in 22 months in December 2017, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price increased by 1.4%.
From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:
Coffee market recovers slightly from December slump
After reaching its lowest level in 22 months in December 2017, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price increased by 1.4% to 115.60 US cents/lb in January 2018.
Global coffee output for 2017/18 is preliminary estimated at 158.78 million bags, 0.7% higher than last year.
Total production of Arabica is estimated to decrease by 1.1% to 97.32 million bags compared to 98.42 million bags last year, as lower production of Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals are only partially offset by increases in Other Milds.
In October the composite indicator of the International Coffee Organization continued its downward trend, averaging 120.01 cents per pound, the lowest level since May 2016.
From a statement issued by the International Coffee Organization:
Record Exports for Coffee Year 2016/17
Total exports in September 2017 reached 8.34 million bags, compared to 9.8 million in September 2016.
With the exception of cereals, all the indexes used in the calculation of the FAO food price index fell in October.
From a statement issued by the World Food Organization:
The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 176.4 points in October 2017, down 2.2 points (1.3 percent) from September. Although at this level the FFPI was up 4 points (2.5 percent) from its value in October 2016, it remained 27 percent below its all-time high (in nominal terms) of 240 points registered in February 2011. With the exception of cereals, all the other indices used in the calculation of the FFPI fell in October.
The World Bank projects that the price of a barrel of oil will rise to $56, metal prices will stabilize, gold prices will tend to rise and agricultural prices will increase, due to a decline in supply.
From a report by the World Bank:
WASHINGTON, October 26 - Oil prices are forecast to rise to $56 a barrel in 2018 from $53 this year as a result of steadily growing demand, agreed production cuts among oil exporters and stabilizing U.S. shale oil production, while the surge in metals prices is expected to level off next year, the World Bank said on Thursday.
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