Following the approval of the Bitcoin Law in El Salvador by the members of the Legislative Assembly, which creates a legal framework that recognizes this digital currency as legal tender in the country, the IMF warns that financial and legal risks have arisen.
Within the framework of the fiscal adjustment being discussed in El Salvador in order to sign an agreement with the IMF, local authorities intend to apply VAT, ISR and other specific taxes to companies that sell their products and services online.
At the beginning of March, the Ministry of Finance informed that El Salvador is in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to obtain a loan of approximately $1.3 billion.
Due to the crisis affecting Nicaragua and paralysis of construction in Panama between April and May, the IMF has reduced the expectation of economic growth for the Central American region from 4% to 3.3%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut growth forecasts for the Central American economy, due to the uncertainty caused by the situation in Nicaragua and its effect on the region's economic activity, and the impact of the construction strike in Panama, which has halted works on 260 projects nationwide for the last 30 days.
"We, at this moment in time, do not believe that these recommendations should be promoted because we are carrying out a series of readjustments that we believe are more relevant".
The Sanchez Ceren administration has ruled out addressing the recommendations made by a mission from the International Monetary Fund to correct the wrong direction of the Salvadoran economy.
The IMF has indicated political polarization, high crime and outward migration, rising unit labor costs and high logistics costs, barriers to entry and expansion of business, fiscal uncertainty, and limited human capital.
From a statement issued by the IMF:
The IMF staff team visited San Salvador during April 25—May 6 for the 2016 Article IV consultation and held fruitful discussions with the Salvadoran authorities, parliamentarians, business community, academics, and social partners.
The Salvadoran economist Manuel Hinds discussed in Costa Rica the pros and cons of dollarization, using the example of El Salvador and Panama.
The Elsalvador.com reported that "many government economists advocate keeping their local currency because they believe that inflation will remain low, but Hinds explained that the opposite happens. In the region, El Salvador, and Panama, which are dollarized, have the lowest inflation rates while countries like Argentina and Venezuela have an inflation rate of more than two digits (25 and 10% respectively) while last year, inflation in El Salvador was only 0.8%. "
In light of the European crisis and slow growth in the U.S., the best protection for Latin American countries is macroeconomic discipline.
Although it is believed that regional banks are "solid, liquid and stable," the recommendation for Latin America to avoid or at least mitigate the inevitable effects of the economic crisis in Europe and the slow recovery of the U.S., is to keep a lid on fiscal deficit.
The IMF has temporarily suspended the availability of emergency funds for El Salvador because it has not met agreed targets, having exceeded government spending.
The IMF reported that the Salvadoran government may not use a precautionary loan (SBA) of $750 million, said Carlos Acevedo, president of Banco Central de Reserva (BCR).
Central America and the Dominican Republic have agreed together to ensure financial liquidity, create mechanisms for monitoring risk management and financial systems, as well as taking measures against the effects of the euro zone crisis and the weakness of U.S.
Carlos Acevedo, president of the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador, told Prensalibre.com that "we are preparing a regional financial system and shielding mechanisms."
As a result of the the contagious effect of the financial crisis in Europe, along with slow U.S. recovery, commodity prices have reversed their upward trend and started to decline.
The IMF's report last September on expectations about the global economic situation indicated a slow recovery for the more advanced economies.
For Latin America the picture was different, with growth of 4.5% forecasted. "This projection shows a positive economic outlook and gives a sense of immunity to the financial and economic turmoil affecting most advanced economies.
Authorities from the Central American countries will discuss with the IMF the outlook for the coming years.
Two years after the international financial crisis significantly affect the economies of Central America, the authorities of the isthmus nations are meeting to discuss progress of the fiscal and economic reforms that have been implemented.
An article in Infolatam.com reports: "regional monetary authorities and the IMF will discuss progress in rebuilding fiscal space and ensure debt sustainability, the strength of the financial, regulation and supervision systems and prudential framework, and the interaction between structural reforms and economic growth, among other issues, according to the official program.
The U.S. could be facing a possible reduction in their risk rating, due to levels of national debt and government deficit.
Democrats and Republicans have been debating in the United States Congress trying to reach an agreement that will raise the debt ceiling and secure public finances for the future, avoiding a potential cessation of payments or a reduction in the country’s risk rating.
In June, the national debt reached $11,900 million and although it remains stable, it might become unsustainable.
Several private sector analysts believe that the current level of debt, equivalent to half the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could become unmanageable if fiscal measures are not taken to control its growth.
To cope with the debt, the country needs to strengthen its economic activity and implement fiscal reforms to realign the distribution of spending and taxes.
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