For El Salvador's business sector, the constitutional crisis triggered by President Nayib Bukele's actions on February 9 was unnecessary and dangerous because of the "abusive use of force with a provocative message."
In order to pressure the deputies to approve a $109 million loan, which will serve to finance Phase III of the Territorial Control Plan, the president of the country decided to take over the facilities of the Legislative Assembly through the army.
After motorized paramilitaries attacked a group of businessmen with firearms on September 7, the productive sector asks the government to clarify the facts "in an objective and truthful manner.”
The violent aggression was directed at the Cosep delegation and the Civic Alliance, made up of José Adán Aguerri, Michael Healy and Álvaro Vargas, who accompanied journalists Jaime Arellano and Aníbal Toruño on a visit to the city of León, reported the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep).
If the country does not provide an early solution to the socio-political crisis it has been going through since April 2018, it is projected that the economy could decline between 7% and 11% during 2019.
The Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), presented the "Informe de Coyuntura" (Situation Report), which explains that if the socio-political crisis continues this year there will be a greater fall in the economy compared to the 4% reported in 2018.
In April, deposits in the Nicaraguan financial system totaled $5.414 billion, registering a 9% increase with respect to the same month in 2017, but below the rate of 11% reported in March of this year.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that in the fourth month of the year "... deposits in the national financial system amounted to 167,560.8 million córdobas ($5.414 billion), which represented year-on-year growth of 8.7 percent (11.4 percent in Mar-18), representing a deceleration with respect to the month of March 2018."
In the view of Fitch Ratings, continued political unrest could undermine investment conditions and economic growth, as well as raise the risks of confidence shocks to the financial system and macroeconomic stability.
From a statement issued by from Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York/San Salvador-17 May 2018: Continuing protests and resulting political violence in Nicaragua heighten risks to political stability and governability, says Fitch Ratings. Continued political unrest could undermine investment conditions and economic growth as well as elevate risks of confidence shocks to the financial system and macro stability.
An ICEFI study concludes that corruption in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras covers "virtually all sectors" and in Guatemala alone, the losses generated are estimated at $550 million per year.
The book "Corruption: Its Paths and Impact on Society and an Agenda to Confront it in the Central American North Triangle", "... studies the relationship between corruption and democracy, highlighting that corruption in the C.A.N.T -El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras - has special characteristics derived from historical aspects, such as the construction of weak states, periods of authoritarianism, civil war and counterinsurgency systems, and the impairment of judicial independence."
In exercising its responsibility as the main active force in Panamanian society, the Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Agriculture is demanding that the branches of government and its authorities correct their behavior, and serve purely national interests.
A ship's captain is the person legitimately appointed to rule the ship, and must not relinquish power to rebellious sailors who want to set a course that serves their own interests and not the rest of the passengers.
The political crisis does not seem to have affected the economy, where the risk noted is related to the imbalance in government accounts, which has reached 25% of GDP.
A report by the Association for Research and Social Studies of Guatemala (ASIES) concludes that "...
Since the institutional crisis the tax supervision body has been operating without a head since April, while the fiscal deficit is still growing and legal bills sleep in the Assembly.
In an opinion piece published on Prensalibre.com, Oscar Chile Monroy, refers to the need for the new president Alejandro Maldonado to urgently decide on who are the new authorities for the Tax Administration in order to redirect the state of public finances, after the institutional crisis whose effects are still being felt in the tax collection agency.
Amcham claims that the political crisis drove away investors who are now considering returning, "convinced that the message of the intention to strengthen the State is true."
Juan Pablo Carrasco, vice president of the Guatemalan Chamber of Commerce (AmCham), told Elperiodico.com.gt that "... An example of (better perceptions) is that on 23 September, a trade mission composed of 12 US franchises come to the country with the idea of settling there, which is a message of confidence to Guatemala and its market. "
In the view of Standard & Poor's the resignation of Perez Molina and the customs fraud will not have a negative impact on debt ratings in the short-term.
From a statement issued by Standard & Poor's:
Mexico City, September 3, 2015.- Otto Perez Molina resigned from the presidency of Guatemala after the National Congress withdrew his legal immunity. Perez Molina now faces a legal process to defend himself against accusations that he was involved in the case of customs fraud, which also involves other key members of his government.
With 132 votes in favor, the Congress decided to remove the president's immunity, who will have to face the accusations of corruption.
While the president insists on staying in office, the commission appointed to examine the arguments in President Perez Molina's defense and evidence presented by the prosecution decided unanimously to recommend to Congress to waive his immunity so that he faces judgement. On September 1st, the Congress voted and decided to remove the inmunity.
The appointment as Minister of Economy and Competitiveness Commissioner of people linked to the telecommunications sector has created strong suspicions, and comes at a time when a $250 million deal is on the table.
An article in Plazapublica.com.gt reports that "... the appointment of Ricardo Sagastume and Acisclo Valladares Urruela as Minister of Economy and Presidential Commissioner for Competitiveness, respectively, in a government that is drowning under the weight of allegations of corruption, has generated doubts and suspicions. When everyone else is leaving the ship, they are getting ready to get onboard. With a lack of coherent explanations from the Presidency and the new officials themselves, everything points to Tigo, the telephone company from which both of them come from, and a multi million dollar business deal in its favor as a result of the troubled waters in which the country finds itself. "
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