The World Bank predicts that by the end of this year Panama and the Dominican Republic will be the economies of the region that will grow the most, and the countries that will report the lowest increases in their production will be Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
After the region's economies were considerably affected in 2020 by the sanitary crisis generated by the Covid-19 outbreak, the outlook of international organizations for 2021 is encouraging.
In the critical context of this year, the resilience of remittances and exports, added to the decline in oil prices, would have somewhat shielded the Guatemalan economy, whose GDP would fall only 2% by the end of 2020.
The programs in response to Covid-19 (Bono Familia, Fondo de Protección al Empleo, Fondo de Crédito para Capital de Trabajo), along with the temporary restructuring of loans by the banking system, are helping to sustain household income and business liquidity, the multilateral agency reported after making its last visit.
According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Because of factors such as business closures and lack of opportunities, it is estimated that criminal activity costs Honduras and El Salvador 16% of GDP, and in the case of Guatemala, its losses could amount to 7% of its production.
In Central America, the human costs of crime remain one of the highest in the world. El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—referred to as the Northern Triangle— account for about four-and-a-half percent of homicides worldwide despite only having about one-half-percent of the world's population.
In its latest update of economic growth projections for 2019, ECLAC estimates that the Dominican Republic will close the year with a 5% increase, followed by Panama, which would reach a growth rate of 3.7%.
According to economic growth projections for Latin America, which were estimated by the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) and updated in November, the Dominican Republic will be the country in the region that will increase its production the most this year.
Private services, manufacturing industries and wholesale and retail trade explained part of the 3% year-on-year increase reported in gross GDP in the period from April to June 2019.
Financial intermediation, insurance and auxiliary activities, and Construction were other economic activities contributing to the growth of the Gross Domestic Product for the quarter in question.
After the economies of the region grew by 2.6% in 2018 as a whole, the IMF estimates that 2019 would close with a rise of 2.7% and could reach 3.4% by 2020.
The document "World Economic Outlook", prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), states that for Panama the projected growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2019 was reduced from 5% to 4.3%.
After registering a 7% year-on-year increase in July, in August the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala showed a 6% variation.
According to the last report of the Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.51% is forecast for September and of 4.50% for October 2019. As to December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.64% and 4.50%, in that order.
Transport, storage and communications, and private services, explained part of the 3% year-on-year increase reported in the Gross Domestic Product during the first three months of the year.
The growth of the Transportation, storage and communications activity, was mainly associated to the increase of the telecommunications activity, derived from the increase of broadband accesses and the greater number of mobile phone subscribers, congruent with the registered by the telephony companies, informed the Banco de Guatemala.
For the entity, "growth has been accelerating since mid-2018 after three years of weak performance," and a variation of 3.4% of GDP is expected for 2019.
Backed by a positive fiscal boost, the recovery of exports after last year's decline resulting from a deterioration in the terms of trade, and the dynamism of private investment. Growth would peak at 3.7% in 2021, before converging towards the potential rate of 3.5% by 2024, the International Monetary Fund reported after its last visit to the country.
For the IDB, investment in infrastructure is the most important priority when increasing the probability of improving productivity and reaching higher per capita income levels in the countries of the region.
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) published its report "Building Opportunities for Growth in a Challenging World," in which it addresses the benefits of infrastructure investment and its influence on productivity growth in the countries of the region.
Guatemala and El Salvador are the Central American economies that have registered the lowest levels of economic growth, when this is associated with the size of their public sector.
Panama, Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica are the countries that would be obtaining exceptional results in their economic growth from the average expenditure of the region during 2011 to 2018, which could be associated with the investment made in past periods, informed the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi).
Higher domestic demand and increased investment are the factors that will influence the 3.3% growth forecast for the regional economy next year.
According to forecasts by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in 2019 Panama will be the economy with the highest growth in Central America, with an expected rate of 5.6%.
It would be followed by Honduras, with expected 3.6% GDP growth, Guatemala with 3%, Costa Rica with 2.9% and El Salvador, with an increase of 2.4%. Only in Nicaragua is the economy expected to decline. According to ECLAC, GDP will fall by 2%.
The Bank of Guatemala expects next year's economic growth to be better than in 2018, which would be caused by higher public spending and the growth of family remittances.
Authorities of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) informed that the Guatemalan economy will close 2018 with a nearly 3% growth, however, for next year is expected that the increase in GDP will be in the range between 3% and 3.8%.
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