The World Bank predicts that by the end of this year Panama and the Dominican Republic will be the economies of the region that will grow the most, and the countries that will report the lowest increases in their production will be Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
After the region's economies were considerably affected in 2020 by the sanitary crisis generated by the Covid-19 outbreak, the outlook of international organizations for 2021 is encouraging.
High social charges, excessive regulations for businesses and the high price of labor are factors that prevent Costa Rica's economy from reaching its growth potential.
In Costa Rica, establishing a personally owned company without employees is up to three times more expensive than what it can cost in a country that belongs to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The drop in production is explained by the performance of activities that were affected by the emergence of the covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, a situation that lasted for the rest of the year.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) valued at constant 2007 prices registered, according to calculations of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), an amount of $35,308.7 million, which corresponded to a decrease of $7,724.1 million, according to an official report.
In the critical context of this year, the resilience of remittances and exports, added to the decline in oil prices, would have somewhat shielded the Guatemalan economy, whose GDP would fall only 2% by the end of 2020.
The programs in response to Covid-19 (Bono Familia, Fondo de Protección al Empleo, Fondo de Crédito para Capital de Trabajo), along with the temporary restructuring of loans by the banking system, are helping to sustain household income and business liquidity, the multilateral agency reported after making its last visit.
According to the Central Bank, this year the Costa Rican economy will contract by 4.5%, an estimate that would be optimistic in the current context of fiscal and economic crisis, uncertainty, distrust and lack of decisions in the transcendental issues facing the country.
The recent results of local production and the new estimates of global economic activity have allowed the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) to revise its economic growth projections for the country: the economic contraction for 2020 is expected to moderate to 4.5%, from the 5.0% predicted in the 2020-2021 Macroeconomic Program Review of last July. For 2021, an annual increase in production of 2.6% is projected, a figure 0.3 percentage points (p.p.) higher than that also announced in July.
According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Given the threat of a deepening economic recession in the country, resulting from the outbreak of covid-19, it is estimated that by the end of the year the open unemployment rate could rise to 9.2%.
In the context of the health crisis, an increase in poverty levels will also be reported, and the GDP per capita indicator will decrease, explains the "Informe de Coyuntura, Abril 2020", prepared by the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides).
Financial Intermediation, and Manufacturing Industries, largely determined the 2.5% increase in GDP during the fourth quarter of last year, compared to the same period in 2018.
Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds increased 1.7%, boosted by income received from commissions and interest on the loan portfolio, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
Last year, GDP amounted to Ch$66,801 million, and in real terms, production increased by 3% over that reported in 2018.
This 3.0% growth for 2019, in the amount of Ch$43,061.1 million (chained value to 2007), was mainly driven by the mining sector, reported the General Comptroller of the Republic.
The dynamism of the mining sector is specifically explained by the increase in the activity of the extraction of copper concentrate, whose production in tons increased from the third to the fourth quarter by 210%.
Nicaraguan businessmen believe that electoral reform is essential to reactivate the country's economic activity, which has been in decline since the crisis erupted in 2018.
According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product contracted by 5.7% in 2019, a drop that complements the year-on-year variation of -3.8% recorded in 2018.
After production in Nicaragua fell 3.8% in 2018, the IMF estimates that during 2019 the GDP will contract by 5.7%, however, the agency predicts that by 2020 the variation could be only -1.2%.
Real GDP is estimated to have contracted by another 5.7% in 2019 due to the deterioration in aggregate demand, fiscal consolidation and sanctions, the IMF reported after its visit to the country.
"Growth remains susceptible to adverse shocks to global growth, economic and socio-political stress in Nicaragua, the continued weakness in consumer and business confidence, and uncertainty regarding the implementation of the fiscal reform.”
After the slowdown in growth between 2017 and early 2019, the economy has recovered since mid-2019, as a result of a rebound in services, agriculture and manufacturing, which produced an estimated 2.1% growth in 2019, reported the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
For the international organization, after the economic slowdown in 2018-2019, the economy is expected to recover in 2020 and will continue to be among the most dynamic in Latin America.
In the medium term, growth is expected to stabilize at its potential annual rate of 5% and inflation is also expected to rise to 1% in 2020, reported the International Monetary Fund after its last visit to the country.
Construction and financial intermediation were the sectors contributing most to the growth of the Gross Domestic Product registered during 2019.
Construction, with its significant expansion of 10.5%, remained the activity with the greatest impact on economic growth in 2019, driven by the development of public and private investment projects corresponding to low and medium cost housing, by the execution of works in the tourism, commercial and energy sectors, as well as the construction and remodeling of infrastructure for land transport and access roads in rural areas, reported the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD).