Fifteen months after the beginning of the health and economic crisis, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are the economies in the region with the highest inflation rates, a behavior that was influenced by increases in fuel and transportation costs.
In the second quarter of 2020, a period in which the countries of the region were going through a severe economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, inflation levels were low and in some economies negative variations were reported.
During the second month of the year, the Consumer Price Index registered a 3.99% year-on-year variation, a rise that was determined in part by the behavior of the prices of education services, hotels and restaurants.
After the inflationary rhythm went from 3.8% to 4.1% between November and December 2019, during January 2020 the year-on-year CPI was 4.3%.
In the first month of 2020, the monthly variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.24% (0.03% in January 2019), an increase driven by the rise in the price of services related to housing, some food and recreational and cultural items and services. With this result, year-on-year inflation stood at 4.30% (3.95% twelve months earlier), reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
During November 2019, the IMAE registered a 2.6% year-on-year increase, largely because of the performance of Financial Intermediation and the Manufacturing Industry.
As of November 2019, the volumes produced of goods and services in the country registered a 2.6% increase, with respect to the same period in 2018 (3.7%), according to the original IMAE series; while the cycle trend series denotes a recovery for the second consecutive month, by growing 2.5% year-on-year (3.7% in 2018).
During December 2019 in Honduras, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 33% decrease with respect to what was reported at the end of 2018.
Analysts said they expect that the slower evolution of the world economy and adverse weather conditions could continue to affect the growth of the Honduran economy, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
The variation in the price of some foods of agricultural origin, transport and health, determined the 4.08% year-on-year increase in the CPI reported in December last year.
In December 2019, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.42% variation (0.19% in December 2018), reflecting the price increase in some foods of agricultural origin, transport and health.
Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries, and financial intermediation largely determined the 2.4% increase in GDP in the third quarter of last year, compared to the same period in 2018.
Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing registered a 2.6% increase, mainly because of the rise in the Gross Added Value (GVA) of coffee cultivation as a result of reseeding, maintenance and fertilization in the farms during the third quarter, informed the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
During October, the IMAE registered a 2.7% year-on-year increase, largely because of the performance of the manufacturing industry and the commercial sector.
The original series of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) reflects that, up to October 2019, the national production of goods and services, in terms of volume, grew 2.7% (3.7% in the same period of 2018), reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
During November, the CPI in Honduras registered a 3.8% variation with respect to the same month in 2018, an inflationary rhythm lower than the 4.1% rate reported in October.
The monthly variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.30% in November 2019, lower than that recorded in the same month of 2018 and 2017 (0.53% and 0.49%, in order), the increase in the index reflects the rise in prices in some food products and fuels, reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
In its latest update of economic growth projections for 2019, ECLAC estimates that the Dominican Republic will close the year with a 5% increase, followed by Panama, which would reach a growth rate of 3.7%.
According to economic growth projections for Latin America, which were estimated by the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) and updated in November, the Dominican Republic will be the country in the region that will increase its production the most this year.
According to the IMF, Honduras has experienced a moderation in economic growth in recent quarters, but a recovery is expected next year.
Honduras has made significant progress in implementing its economic program, which aims to foster inclusive growth through prudent macroeconomic policies and structural and governance reforms, according to the international organization's report.
During September, the IMAE registered a 2.7% year-on-year increase, mainly because of the performance of Construction and Commercial Activity.
At the end of the third quarter of the current year, the original IMAE series reached 2.7% cumulative variation (3.5% in the same period in 2018). Meanwhile, the trend cycle series showed a 2.2% year-on-year variation (3.8% in September 2018), reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
During October 2019, the CPI registered a 4.1% variation with respect to the same month in 2018, an inflation rate that is lower than the 4.4% reported in September.
In October 2019, monthly inflation -measured through the variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)- was 0.24%, lower than the registered in October 2018 (0.56%). The monthly result is mainly the result of the increase in the price of some food products and fuel, informed the Central Bank of Honduras.
During August, the IMAE in Honduras registered a 2.4% year-on-year increase, largely because of the performance of financial intermediation, insurance and pension funds.
The economic activities with positive behavior were: Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds, Mail and Telecom, Manufacturing Industry and Commerce, to a lesser extent contributed Private Construction and Electricity and Water, reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
After reporting falls in previous months, during September 2019 in Honduras the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 4% increase with respect to August.
Analysts showed that the main indicators that measure economic performance are positive, they expect that with the proximity of the Morazán Week and the Christmas season the economy will dynamize, informed the Central Bank of Honduras.
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