Fifteen months after the beginning of the health and economic crisis, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are the economies in the region with the highest inflation rates, a behavior that was influenced by increases in fuel and transportation costs.
In the second quarter of 2020, a period in which the countries of the region were going through a severe economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, inflation levels were low and in some economies negative variations were reported.
After the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 19% drop in March 2020, in April the situation worsened with a -43% year-on-year variation, a drop that agrees with the advance of the health crisis in the country.
In April 2020, the level of the Economic Activity Confidence Index stood at 32.64 points, 43.25% lower than that recorded in March 2020 (57.52 points) and fell by 26.83% compared to April 2019 (44.61 points), reported the Bank of Guatemala.
At the end of 2019, economic activity in Guatemala grew 3%, behavior that was explained in part by the performance of the commercial and construction sectors.
During the first month of the year, family remittances sent to Guatemala registered a 22% year-on-year variation, a rise that exceeds the 8% increase registered in the same period in 2018.
According to the most recent figures from the Bank of Guatemala, in January 2020 the country received remittances of $834 million, an amount that exceeds by $46 million that registered in the same month of 2019.
In January, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 39% increase compared to the same month in 2019, reinforcing the upward trend that has been reported since July 2019.
An inflationary rhythm of 3.72% is forecast for January, 3.71% for February and 3.84% for March 2020.
Trade and vehicle repair were the activities that, during November 2019, explained the 3.4% year-on-year variation in the IMAE.
In November last year, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) slowed down for the second consecutive month, from 4.3% to 3.7% between September and October, and in the eleventh month it fell to 3.4%, reported the Bank of Guatemala.
A few days before the new government takes office in Guatemala, the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 21% year-on-year growth.
Figures from the Bank of Guatemala indicate that in December 2019 the country's Confidence in Economic Activity Index (Icae) reported a considerable increase compared to the same month in 2018, a performance that reinforces the upward trend it has been registering since July last year.
Last year, family remittances sent to Guatemala totaled $10.508 million, 13% more than what was reported in 2018.
According to the latest figures from the Bank of Guatemala, in December 2019 the country received remittances of $941 million, an amount that exceeds by 12% the $843 million registered in the same month in 2018.
During December 2019, the CPI registered a 3.4% variation with respect to the same month of the previous year, an inflationary rhythm higher than the 2.3% reported at the end of 2018.
The most important inflation levels of December 2019 are the following: a monthly inflation of 0.60% was registered, an inflationary rhythm of 3.41% and an accumulated inflation of 3.41%, informed the National Statistics Institute (INE).
During November, the CPI registered a 2.9% variation with respect to the same month of 2018, an inflationary rhythm higher than the 4.2% rate reported in October.
The most important inflation levels in November 2019 are as follows: 0.44% monthly inflation, 2.92% inflation and 2.79% accumulated inflation, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE).
In Guatemala, 54% of businessmen believe that in 2020 the local economy will accelerate, 42% believe that stable growth will be reported and 4% believe that a slowdown could be reported.
According to the Third Business Perception Survey conducted by the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial and Financial Associations (Cacif), 67% of respondents expect greater growth of their companies and 56% expect more employment with the arrival of the new government.
From January to November 2019, family remittances sent to Guatemala totaled $9,567 million, 13% more than what was reported in the same period in 2018.
According to the most recent figures from the Bank of Guatemala, in November 2019 the country received $819 million in remittances, 8% more than the $757 million recorded in the same month in 2018.
The electoral triumph of Alejandro Giammattei and the appointments he is making in his cabinet to assume next January 14, are the main reasons that explain the upturn that has had business confidence since July.
In November of this year, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported a 28% growth with respect to the same month in 2018, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Businessmen forecast an inflationary rhythm of 3.34% and 3.54% for November and December 2019, respectively, as well as 3.69% for January 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 3.98% and 4.27%, in that order, explains the report of the Banco de Guatemala.
According to the Central Bank, the constructive activity and consumption spending that Guatemalans make with the money received from abroad will boost the economy by the end of 2019, and this expansive cycle could extend until 2020.
During this year residential and commercial construction, together with public investment, have affected activities such as manufacturing, mining and quarrying, private services and commerce, informed representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat).
español
3443
