The rating agency affirmed the Central American Country’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default rating at "B-" and reviewed the rating outlook to stable from negative.
Nicaragua's ratings are constrained by the lowest average World Bank Governance Indicators score in the Americas rated by Fitch, low per capita income, political stability risks, and international sanctions that limit future external financing, the rating agency's analysis highlights.
Fifteen months after the beginning of the health and economic crisis, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are the economies in the region with the highest inflation rates, a behavior that was influenced by increases in fuel and transportation costs.
In the second quarter of 2020, a period in which the countries of the region were going through a severe economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, inflation levels were low and in some economies negative variations were reported.
Following the visit of US Vice President Kamala Harris to Guatemala, the business sector assures that in order to reduce illegal migration from Central America to the US, it is necessary to create a favorable and comfortable environment for local and foreign investment in the countries of the region.
As part of Harris' visit to Guatemala, Agexport prepared a document with proposals that reflect the experience it has accumulated over many years, incorporating Guatemalans and small rural businesses into export chains, generating income that allows them to remain in their territories.
For Fitch, the delay in vaccination campaigns constitutes a latent risk of a prolonged pandemic, which would delay the recovery of the region's economies and would cause negative pressures on the risk ratings to be issued in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings issued a bulletin for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean on May 25, in which it warned that given the deep economic contractions in the region and the moderate recovery outlook, there are threats of negative rating pressures.
During March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a year-on-year variation of 6.5%, a rise that is largely explained by the dynamism of mining and quarrying, manufacturing industry and construction.
In primary activities, growth was registered in mining and quarrying, livestock, agriculture, fishing and aquaculture, and a decrease in forestry and timber extraction, informed the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
After in January 2021 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity in the country registered an year on year increase of 0.7%, in February a lower growth was registered, which amounted to 0.2%.
The activities with the highest growth were: mining and quarrying, 24.5%, commerce, 6.2%, fishing and aquaculture, 5.6%, construction, 2.4%, and manufacturing industry, 2.3%, among others, informed the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
Reducing costs and barriers to foreign trade in Central American economies is key for the region to overcome the economic recession caused by the outbreak of Covid-19.
A report prepared by the World Bank explains that boosting economic activity and employing a higher percentage of the labor force are objectives that can be achieved through reforms that strengthen the private sector and attract investment.
The World Bank predicts that by the end of this year Panama and the Dominican Republic will be the economies of the region that will grow the most, and the countries that will report the lowest increases in their production will be Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
After the region's economies were considerably affected in 2020 by the sanitary crisis generated by the Covid-19 outbreak, the outlook of international organizations for 2021 is encouraging.
As a result of the economic crisis generated by the pandemic, it is estimated that four out of every five Central American companies were forced to increase their debts in order to sustain their operations.
According to the 2021 Regional Survey on economic reactivation prepared by the Federation of Chambers of Commerce of the Central American Isthmus (Fecamco), the resources obtained through indebtedness, served the companies to pay payroll, face rents and support operations.
Twelve months after Central America began a health and economic crisis triggered by the covid-19 outbreak, Guatemala was the fastest recovering economy and Panamanian economic activity is the slowest to return to pre-pandemic levels.
In March 2020, the first cases of covid-19 began to be detected in the countries of the region. The highly contagious disease, which at that time had already claimed the lives of thousands of people around the world, forced Central American governments to establish mobility restrictions.
Regarding what is expected economically for 2021, in Nicaragua, El Salvador, Panama and Honduras there is more optimism among consumers, while in Guatemala and Costa Rica the percentage of people who believe that the situation will improve this year is lower.
According to the survey conducted by Kantar to measure the perception of households in Central America, at regional level 12% of consumers consulted believe that the economic situation in their country will improve during 2021, 23% expect it to be the same and 65% predict that it will be worse.
Strengthening trade between the US and the region, fighting corruption in the Northern Triangle and reducing illegal migration flows, are some of the axes on which Joe Biden, the US president who has been sworn in, is expected to focus.
Biden, representative of the Democratic Party and winner of the last US elections, whose results were close, arrives at the White House to replace Donald Trump.
The World Bank has improved economic growth projections for all Central American economies for 2021, with Honduras, El Salvador and Panama having the most promising forecasts.
In June 2020, when the health and economic effects of the pandemic that caused the covid-19 outbreak were beginning to be reported, the World Bank predicted that in 2021 Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product would decrease by -1.6%, but in a January 2021 publication it projected that the drop would be -0.9%.
Because of the fall in economic activity and the restrictions imposed to contain the spread of covid-19, businessmen in Costa Rica and Panama predict that the process of economic recovery will not be completed in the near future.
In this crisis scenario generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the Costa Rican economy does not show clear signs of recovery, since during November 2020 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a year-on-year fall of 6.2%, a decline similar to that reported in October, when it was 6.3%.
At the end of 2020, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador remained at the bottom of the Human Development Index ranking, while Costa Rica and Panama were better evaluated.
The report entitled The Next Frontier, Human Development and the Anthropocene, which was published on December 15, 2020 at the global level, updates the Human Development Index (HDI) that is calculated by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).
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