During May, economic activity registered a negative year-on-year change of 4.9%, mainly explained by the crisis that the country has been experiencing since mid-April.
After a slowdown in the Monthly Index of Economic Activity in April, a change of -4.9% was reported in May compared to the same month last year.Average annual growth was 2.6% and the variation accumulated up to the month of May was 0.9%.
During the first three months of the year Nicaragua's annual GDP growth was 2.3%, well below the 7.7% increase reported in the same period in 2017.
As of March 2018, the Nicaraguan economy achieved year-on-year growth of 2.3% and 3.5% in annual average terms, reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua.
In line with the year-on-year reductions of 2% and 4% reported in March and April, the affiliation of 853,396 social security workers was registered in May, 7% less than was reported in the same month in 2017.
Explained by the behavior of most activities, INSS records indicate that in May the number of affiliated workers was 853,396, showing a fall of 7.2% compared to May of last year, reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
In May and June, the Consumer Price Index recorded year-on-year variations of 5.2% and 5.6%, exceeding the average inflation rate of 4.9% reported in the first four months of the year.
Ever since the political and social crisis in the country became accentuated, the general price indicator has shown a clear upward trend, which is reflected in the behavior of the inflationary rhythm of the last two months.
The Central Bank has reviewed its projections in the current complicated context, and expects an economic growth rate between 0.5% and 1.5%, and an inflationary rhythm in the range of 6.5% to 8.5%.
According to authorities at the Central Bank of Nicaragua, the "... new projection of economic growth for the year 2018 is between 0.5 percent and 1.5 percent. On the other hand, inflation is estimated between 6.5 and 8.5 percent.In relation to labor, a loss of 85,100 jobs is projected, which is equivalent to a rate of around 6 percent."
In the first five months of the year, the country received $609 million in remittances from abroad, which is equivalent to an increase of 10% compared to the same period in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that "... Remittances totaled 127.1 million dollars in May (US $121.2 million in May 2017), which meant an interannual variation of 4.9 percent."
The downgrade and Outlook change reflect increasing political instability and the corresponding deterioration of Nicaragua's investment, economic growth, and public finance outlook
From a statement issued by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-22 June 2018: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Nicaragua's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'B' from 'B+'. The Outlook is Negative.
In April, the IMAE registered an interannual increase of 1.6% compared to the same month in 2017, below the average rate of 2.9% reported in the first three months of the year.
Moody's has changed the rating outlook from positive to stable, citing the economic impact of the rupture of the consensus model for a national dialogue.
From a statement issued by Moody's:
New York, June 13, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today changed Nicaragua's rating outlook to stable from positive and affirmed its B2 long-term issuer ratings.
In response to the rupture of the dialogue on the part of the Ortega administration, companies and citizen organizations have called for a national strike on Thursday, June 14.
Demanding the cessation of repression by the Government and the resumption of the National Dialogue, social and business organizations, called for a general strike to take place tomorrow.
In addition to the fall of 2% reported in March, the affiliation of 878,500 social security workers was recorded in April, 4% less than the number reported in the same month in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN) reported that according to the administrative records of the INSS, they indicate that between the months of April 2017 and 2018, the number of insured persons decreased from 914,276 to 896,869 workers, which is equivalent to a fall of 3.9%.
In the optimistic scenario, which foresees an end to the crisis in Nicaragua by the end of July, economic growth at the end of 2018 would be only 1.7%, with $400 million losses in added value.
The Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development projects that a possible first scenario would be one where "...the government accepts an early exit negotiated and implemented no later than the end of July, thus achieving a framework of understanding focused on the issues of justice and democratization, putting an end to repression, violence and citizen insecurity."
During the fifth month of the year, the CPI recorded a monthly variation of 0.55%, mainly explained by prices in the sectors of Food and non-alcoholic beverages and Transport.
During the first four months of the year, the country received $482 million in the form of remittances from abroad, which is equivalent to an increase of 11.7% compared to the same period in 2017.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Nicaragua:
Due to the crisis in the country, the Central Bank has reduced the estimate of economic growth for this year from the range of 4.5% to 5%, to the range of 3% to 3.5%.
Ovidio Reyes, president of the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN), explained that "... the hardest and most regrettable thing about this is the generation of employment.We are expecting the loss of 58,300 new jobs as a result of the lower economic dynamics."
Colombian company with more than 30 years in the market develops technological solutions that allow to manage in an integrated and timely way investment portfolios. Solutions to manage investment portfolios, investment...
The lots are large, 3,000 – 5,300 sq mts with prepared building sites, all with beautiful ocean views, water and power to the site. Financing Convenient location; 10 minutes from Berlin and just 30...
español
2277