Because of factors such as business closures and lack of opportunities, it is estimated that criminal activity costs Honduras and El Salvador 16% of GDP, and in the case of Guatemala, its losses could amount to 7% of its production.
In Central America, the human costs of crime remain one of the highest in the world. El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—referred to as the Northern Triangle— account for about four-and-a-half percent of homicides worldwide despite only having about one-half-percent of the world's population.
Trade and vehicle repair were the activities that, during November 2019, explained the 3.4% year-on-year variation in the IMAE.
In November last year, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) slowed down for the second consecutive month, from 4.3% to 3.7% between September and October, and in the eleventh month it fell to 3.4%, reported the Bank of Guatemala.
Alejandro Giammattei, Guatemala's new president, is hosting a country with weak institutions, legal uncertainty and a business sector that is asking for a less "hostile" environment for new investments.
A few days before the new government takes office in Guatemala, the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 21% year-on-year growth.
Figures from the Bank of Guatemala indicate that in December 2019 the country's Confidence in Economic Activity Index (Icae) reported a considerable increase compared to the same month in 2018, a performance that reinforces the upward trend it has been registering since July last year.
Last year, family remittances sent to Guatemala totaled $10.508 million, 13% more than what was reported in 2018.
According to the latest figures from the Bank of Guatemala, in December 2019 the country received remittances of $941 million, an amount that exceeds by 12% the $843 million registered in the same month in 2018.
During December 2019, the CPI registered a 3.4% variation with respect to the same month of the previous year, an inflationary rhythm higher than the 2.3% reported at the end of 2018.
The most important inflation levels of December 2019 are the following: a monthly inflation of 0.60% was registered, an inflationary rhythm of 3.41% and an accumulated inflation of 3.41%, informed the National Statistics Institute (INE).
With a new methodology, the Banco de Guatemala determined that the value of the informal economy already adds up to the equivalent of 22% of the Gross Domestic Product.
The new calculation used by the Banco de Guatemala (Banguat) to measure national production now includes the measurement of the informal economy, mainly its participation in productive activity.
During November, the CPI registered a 2.9% variation with respect to the same month of 2018, an inflationary rhythm higher than the 4.2% rate reported in October.
The most important inflation levels in November 2019 are as follows: 0.44% monthly inflation, 2.92% inflation and 2.79% accumulated inflation, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE).
In Guatemala, 54% of businessmen believe that in 2020 the local economy will accelerate, 42% believe that stable growth will be reported and 4% believe that a slowdown could be reported.
According to the Third Business Perception Survey conducted by the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial and Financial Associations (Cacif), 67% of respondents expect greater growth of their companies and 56% expect more employment with the arrival of the new government.
From January to November 2019, family remittances sent to Guatemala totaled $9,567 million, 13% more than what was reported in the same period in 2018.
According to the most recent figures from the Bank of Guatemala, in November 2019 the country received $819 million in remittances, 8% more than the $757 million recorded in the same month in 2018.
Arguing that continuity in economic policies is expected after the change of administration in January 2020, Standard & Poor's maintained the country's credit risk rating at BB-.
From S&P report:
S&P Global Ratings confirmed its long-term sovereign credit ratings of "BB-" in long-term foreign currency and "BB" in Guatemala. The outlook for our long-term ratings remains stable. We also affirmed our short-term 'B' foreign and local currency ratings in Guatemala, the international agency reported.
The electoral triumph of Alejandro Giammattei and the appointments he is making in his cabinet to assume next January 14, are the main reasons that explain the upturn that has had business confidence since July.
In November of this year, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported a 28% growth with respect to the same month in 2018, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Businessmen forecast an inflationary rhythm of 3.34% and 3.54% for November and December 2019, respectively, as well as 3.69% for January 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 3.98% and 4.27%, in that order, explains the report of the Banco de Guatemala.
According to the Central Bank, the constructive activity and consumption spending that Guatemalans make with the money received from abroad will boost the economy by the end of 2019, and this expansive cycle could extend until 2020.
During this year residential and commercial construction, together with public investment, have affected activities such as manufacturing, mining and quarrying, private services and commerce, informed representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat).
In its latest update of economic growth projections for 2019, ECLAC estimates that the Dominican Republic will close the year with a 5% increase, followed by Panama, which would reach a growth rate of 3.7%.
According to economic growth projections for Latin America, which were estimated by the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) and updated in November, the Dominican Republic will be the country in the region that will increase its production the most this year.
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