Although expectations for the end of 2021 are good for the Guatemalan economy, there is uncertainty regarding what will happen in the second part of the year, as the vaccination process is progressing slowly.
According to World Bank forecasts published in June 2021, it is expected that at the end of the year, Guatemala's Gross Domestic Product will grow 3.6% year-on-year. See report "Global Economic Prospects".
The rating agency affirmed the Central American Country’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default rating at "B-" and reviewed the rating outlook to stable from negative.
Nicaragua's ratings are constrained by the lowest average World Bank Governance Indicators score in the Americas rated by Fitch, low per capita income, political stability risks, and international sanctions that limit future external financing, the rating agency's analysis highlights.
For the international organization, during 2020, Guatemala's economy showed resilience, since in the context of the crisis caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, the GDP contracted only 1.5%.
According to the International Monetary Fund, in a context of favorable specialization of production and exports, resilience of remittances, and unprecedented support from monetary and fiscal policies, the drop in Guatemalan production was minimal compared to that reported in other Central American countries.
Fifteen months after the beginning of the health and economic crisis, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are the economies in the region with the highest inflation rates, a behavior that was influenced by increases in fuel and transportation costs.
In the second quarter of 2020, a period in which the countries of the region were going through a severe economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, inflation levels were low and in some economies negative variations were reported.
Following the visit of US Vice President Kamala Harris to Guatemala, the business sector assures that in order to reduce illegal migration from Central America to the US, it is necessary to create a favorable and comfortable environment for local and foreign investment in the countries of the region.
As part of Harris' visit to Guatemala, Agexport prepared a document with proposals that reflect the experience it has accumulated over many years, incorporating Guatemalans and small rural businesses into export chains, generating income that allows them to remain in their territories.
As a result of the economic crisis during June 2020 the number of workers contributing to the Salvadoran Social Security Institute decreased to 810 thousand, in the following months the figures improved and in March 2021 the figure rose to 861 thousand.
According to the report corresponding to March 2021 of the Salvadoran Social Security Institute (ISSS), the different economic activities report a sustained recovery, especially the sectors that were mostly affected by the economic downturn such as commerce, restaurants, hotels and services.
During March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity registered a -6% year-on-year variation, a decrease that is attributed to the effects of the sanitary emergency caused by Covid-19.
According to the most recent report of the General Comptroller's Office of the Republic, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) accumulated from January-March 2021 showed a decrease of 10.06%, compared to the same period of 2020.
For Fitch, the delay in vaccination campaigns constitutes a latent risk of a prolonged pandemic, which would delay the recovery of the region's economies and would cause negative pressures on the risk ratings to be issued in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings issued a bulletin for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean on May 25, in which it warned that given the deep economic contractions in the region and the moderate recovery outlook, there are threats of negative rating pressures.
During March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a year-on-year variation of 6.5%, a rise that is largely explained by the dynamism of mining and quarrying, manufacturing industry and construction.
In primary activities, growth was registered in mining and quarrying, livestock, agriculture, fishing and aquaculture, and a decrease in forestry and timber extraction, informed the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
After the Legislative Assembly ratified the country's accession to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the business sector is of the opinion that this will help consolidate the institutional reforms needed to make the State more efficient.
The Assembly informed that by approving in the second debate the bill 22.187, which contains the agreement on the terms of accession, the deputies gave the green light to Costa Rica's accession to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
During March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a variation of 13% when compared to the levels reported in the same month of 2020, a period that was marked by the closure of the economy due to the pandemic.
The economic activities that most contributed to the positive result were: Manufacturing Industry and Commerce, and to a lesser extent, Mail and Telecommunications, Financial Intermediation and Other Services -related to health and net taxes-. These contributions were partially offset by the negative variations in agricultural activities, Transportation and Storage, and Hotels and Restaurants, highlights the report of the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
In order to contain the advance of the pandemic, during the rest of the month of May, capacity reductions and restrictions to the circulation of vehicles will be applied, measures that will be applied throughout the national territory.
Through a press conference, the Costa Rican Government announced that as of May 13, sanitary measures will be applied, which will be based on the modification of some existing ones.
In March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a 6.9% increase over the level recorded in the same month of 2020.
The Guatemalan economy continues to show positive signs, as after facing a crisis during 2020 due to the covid-19 outbreak, economic activity has recovered rapidly in the last months of last year and in the first quarter of 2021.
According to the IMF, the local economy is well positioned to support the recovery and overcome the deterioration of social indicators, which worsened due to the pandemic caused by the Covid-19 outbreak.
Strong remittances, pandemic-resilient productive specialization, and unprecedented economic policy support limited economic contraction in 2020, while the outlook for 2021 benefits from additional U.S. fiscal stimulus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported.
After in January 2021 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity in the country registered an year on year increase of 0.7%, in February a lower growth was registered, which amounted to 0.2%.
The activities with the highest growth were: mining and quarrying, 24.5%, commerce, 6.2%, fishing and aquaculture, 5.6%, construction, 2.4%, and manufacturing industry, 2.3%, among others, informed the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
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