Fitch Ratings confirmed the long-term foreign currency debt default rating of "BB", but changed the outlook from stable to negative.
The review of Guatemala's negative outlook reflects political tension and greater uncertainty in agents, as well as a constant erosion in the government's low tax collection, the rating agency argued.
Because the economy is on the road to rebound after a temporary slowdown, the entity forecasts that in 2019 will register a 6% increase and not 6.3%, as initially planned.
Panama's economic fundamentals remain strong. The economy is on the road to rebounding from the temporary slowdown and will be gradually converging to its potential growth of 5.5% in the medium term, explains the IMF after its last visit to the country.
Due to the eruption of the Volcano of Fire and suspension of the operations of the San Rafael mining company, combined with a drop in the international prices of sugar, coffee and natural rubber, the economy is expected to grow less in 2018.
According to the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the projection for economic growth for this year is currently 3.4%, with a range of between 3% and 3.8%.However, due to the events registered throughout the year, it is expected that the growth rate could be reduced to 3%.
The poor performance of the mining sector and the decline in the export price of sugar and coffee could have a negative impact on the outlook for economic growth this year.
According to Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the recent performance of short-term indicators of economic activity such as the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, imports and family remittances, among other things, they anticipate a performance consistent with the estimate for the end of the year, which ranges between 3% and 3.8%.
Funides projections for conditions in 2016 are similar to those of 2015 and it estimates that the economy will grow by between 4.5 and 4.7%.
From the executive summary of the "First Economic Situation Report for 2016 " by Funides:
Growth projections for the world economy in 2016 have decreased from 3.4 to 3.2 percent according to the latest projections by the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF has indicated political polarization, high crime and outward migration, rising unit labor costs and high logistics costs, barriers to entry and expansion of business, fiscal uncertainty, and limited human capital.
From a statement issued by the IMF:
The IMF staff team visited San Salvador during April 25—May 6 for the 2016 Article IV consultation and held fruitful discussions with the Salvadoran authorities, parliamentarians, business community, academics, and social partners.
The risks are: uncertainty about sustainability of public finances, increasing dollarization of the loan portfolio, and inflationary pressures from excess liquidity.
In its commentary on the national economy No. 5-2016 of May 2, 2016, the Board of the Central Bank of Costa Rica said:
"... The Central Bank reiterates the existence of risks to macroeconomic stability.
Mondelēz International is closing its operations causing businesses in the productive sector to reaffirm their concern over the country's loss of competitiveness.
From a statement issued by the Costa Rican Chamber of the Food Industry:
CACIA receives with concern news of Mondelez plant closure
May, 2016. The Costa Rican Chamber of the Food Industry (CACIA) reacted with concern to the news of the company Mondelez's closure of industrial operations in Costa Rica, where it manufactured traditional products which weighed heavily in Costa Rican exports.
Highlights include a long history of macroeconomic stability even during political crises, and authorities' commitment to fulfilling public debt obligations.
From a statement issued by the Bank of Guatemala:
After its recent visit to the country, the rating agency Fitch Ratings confirmed on Friday April 29, 2016, the credit rating of Guatemala at BB with a stable outlook.
The Nicaraguan economy continues to record high growth rates and sustainable macroeconomic policies, with an average GDP growth of 5.2% in recent years.
Statement issued by the IMF:
IMF Concludes Staff Visit to Nicaragua
Press Release No. 16/191
April 29, 2016
A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Gerardo Peraza visited Managua during April 25–29, 2016.
Noting the political system's inability to agree on fiscal issues, Standard & Poor's has downgraded, from BB to BB-, the rating for the country's long-term debt, giving it a negative outlook.
Costa Rica Long-Term Ratings Lowered To 'BB-' On Continued Fiscal Deterioration; Outlook Is Negative
25 Feb 2016
Source: Standardandpoors.com
OVERVIEW
The combination of growing spending pressures and lack of tax reform has weakened Costa Rica's public finances and raised its vulnerability to
Update on the economy of a region which in its entirety is the seventh largest economy in Latin America and the Caribbean.
From the Executive summary of the Regional Economic Report 2015 published by the Secretariat of Central American Economic Integration (SIECA):
In 2014 the world stage was conditioned by geopolitical tensions which heightened phenomena such as the fall in oil prices and fluctuations in supply and demand in international markets. The world economy grew by 3.4% in 2014, reflecting a rebound in advanced economies and a slowdown in developing economies, but emerging markets still accounted for 3/4 of global growth.
Just as a company can not make decisions without information regarding the course of its business, no country is able to create a long term development plan without knowing its real needs in depth .
The last census to be published is the one from the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), but "... Some of the data provided are not complete for the country. "
The Central Bank has cut its growth forecast for GDP for the year to 4% - 4.5% and expects inflation to be between 6.55% and 7.5%, higher than initially expected.
From the executive summary of the report "State of the Economy and Prospects, First Semester 2014":
At the end of the first half of the year, the Nicaraguan economy is maintaining positive growth rate, mainly driven by external demand and improved terms of trade.
In its review of the macroeconomic program for 2014-2015, the Central Bank projects, as the most likely scenario, an annual inflation of around 6% at the end of 2014, and slightly less than 5% by the end of 2015.
The document issued by the Board of the Central Bank of Costa Rica places emphasis on keeping the inflation target at "4% with a tolerance of ± 1 percentage point for the remainder of the period from 2014 to 2015."