After lowering the rate six times between January and October of this year, in its last review the Central Bank of Costa Rica decided to maintain it at 3.25%, because the inflationary rate registers a significant slowdown.
The last reduction made to the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was at the end of October, when the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) reduced it from 3.75% to 3.25%, arguing that the reduction would support the incipient economic recovery process shown by production indicators.
As a result of the economic slowdown and the imbalance in public finances, Costa Rica faces a complex and high-risk future, in which the margins for action and maneuver will be increasingly limited.
The State of the Nation 2019 report explains that the economic slowdown and imbalance in public finances created a scenario of great complexity and risk, both economic and political, which aggravated the structural weaknesses or "blind spots" of the national development style.
Arguing that the reduction would support the incipient economic recovery process shown by production indicators, the Central Bank decided to lower the Monetary Policy Rate for the sixth time this year.
The central banks of some advanced and emerging economies have relaxed their interest rates, which expands the space for a countercyclical monetary policy in Costa Rica, according to the Central Bank's analysis.
Arguing that in the international context a high uncertainty associated to the commercial tensions between the U.S. and China prevails, the Central Bank of Costa Rica decided to lower for the fifth time so far this year the Monetary Policy Rate, this time to 3.75%.
For the monetary authority, the tension between the two world economic powers has led to a slowdown in trade flows and growth projections in our main trading partners.
Between January and July of this year in Costa Rica the Central Bank lowered the Monetary Policy Rate four times in a row, but its last decision was to maintain it at 4%.
Among the arguments of the monetary authority it is worth highlighting that the international interest rates are adjusted downward. In particular, the US Federal Reserve System reduced the reference interest rate range by 25 base points.
Arguing that there are deflationary pressures and that the unemployment rate remains high, the Central Bank reduced the Monetary Policy Rate from 4.5% to 4%.
This would be the fourth reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate made by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) so far this year, since at the beginning of 2019 was at 5.25% and is currently reduced to 4%.
Arguing that deflationary forces persist and that a low rate of economic activity is reported, the Central Bank decided to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate to 4.50%.
This is the third reduction made by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) so far this year, since at the end of March it decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 5.25% to 5% and in May from 5% to 4.75%.
Arguing that the rise in international commodity prices and the redefinition of the basic tax basket could put upward pressure on inflation, the Central Bank reduced the Monetary Policy Rate to 4.75%.
This is the second reduction made by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) so far this year, since at the end of March it decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 5.25% to 5%.
Arguing that the inflation forecast would be around the central value of the target range, in Costa Rica the Central Bank decided to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate at 5%.
The Central Bank defined its long term inflation goal (measured with the year-on-year variation of the Consumer Price Index) in 3%, with a tolerance of ±1 percentage point, the institution reported.
Arguing that there are factors that could push inflation down, in Costa Rica the Central Bank decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 5.25% to 5%.
The inflation forecast models of the Central Bank suggest that this would converge to the target range from the second quarter of 2019 and would remain around or below the midpoint of that range during the horizon of the 2019-2020 macroeconomic programming, informed the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR).
Arguing that inflation expectations are within the target range, in Costa Rica the Central Bank decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged.
The last increase in the monetary policy rate was made in early November 2018, when the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) decided to raise it from 5% to 5.25%, arguing that forecasts suggest that inflation in 2019 could be above the upper limit of the target range.
The State of the Nation 2018 Report explains that during 2017 and the first months of 2018 the progress of Costa Rica's economy has been adverse and, in the short term, the prospects for economic opportunities, solvency and stability are negative.
Most of the drivers of Costa Rica's economy have declined in recent months, resulting in Costa Rica going through a period of multiple economic and political risks.
Arguing that the predictions suggest that inflation in 2019 could be above the upper limit of the target range, the Central Bank of Costa Rica decided to raise the monetary policy rate from 5% to 5.25%.
From the statement of the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
November 1st, 2018. The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), in the session of October 31st, 2018, decided to increase the monetary policy rate (TPM) by 25 basic points to 5.25% annually. The Board of Directors also agreed to increase the gross interest rate on one-day deposits (DON) by 19 basis points to 3.23% annually. Both increases are in effect from November 1st, 2018.
In spite of the economic progress that has been achieved in Costa Rica, employment growth has stagnated, results in education are deficient, and anti-competitive regulations continue to hinder business development.
The latest OECD economic study on Costa Rica details the factors that support the significant socio-economic achievements of the last decades, as well as the pending challenges to ensure sustainable and more inclusive growth.
Claiming that in the last few months inflation expectations have increased, the Central Bank has raised the monetary policy rate from 4.75% to 5%, from February 1st.
The Central Bank argues that the price of oil has maintained a bullish behavior since July 2017. This situation, with a backlog, is transferring to the local price of fuels, with a potential transmission in the coming months towards other prices.