As part of the health emergency generated by the spread of covid-19, the Bank of Guatemala decided to reduce the prime interest rate again, from 2.25% to 2%.
The Monetary Board considered that, in the last few days, the perspectives of world economic growth for 2020 have deteriorated considerably, due to the persistent propagation of the coronavirus, which has increased the volatility and uncertainty at a global level, informed the Bank of Guatemala.
Nayib Bukele announced that his administration will implement the "Economic Takeoff Plan", which aims to create the conditions for the economy to grow above 3.5%.
The plan will focus on articulating government efforts in the agricultural sector, telecoms through connectivity and education focused on preparing the new generations in the framework of the fourth industrial revolution.
Arguing that the current account deficit has been reduced, and that inflation remains within the target range, the International Monetary Fund approved the first revision of the Stand-By 2019-2021 agreement.
From the press release by IMF:
On December 18, 2019, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed first reviews of Honduras’ performance under an economic program supported by a two-year Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and a two-year arrangement under the Standby Credit Facility (SCF). This program was approved on July 15 th, 2019 in the amount of about US$ 309.2 million (SDR 224.8 million), the equivalent of 90 percent of Honduras quota in the IMF (see Press Release 19/285 ).
Arguing that the economic activity and the execution of public expenditure report a behavior attached to the growth forecasts for 2019, the Central Bank decided to maintain again at 2.75% the level of the leading interest rate of the monetary policy.
From the Banco de Guatemala statement:
Guatemala, November 28, 2019. The Monetary Board, in its session celebrated on November 27, based on the integral analysis of the external and internal economic situation, after evaluating the Inflation Risks Balance, decided to keep the level of the leading interest rate of the monetary policy at 2.75%.
After lowering the rate six times between January and October of this year, in its last review the Central Bank of Costa Rica decided to maintain it at 3.25%, because the inflationary rate registers a significant slowdown.
The last reduction made to the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was at the end of October, when the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) reduced it from 3.75% to 3.25%, arguing that the reduction would support the incipient economic recovery process shown by production indicators.
As a result of the economic slowdown and the imbalance in public finances, Costa Rica faces a complex and high-risk future, in which the margins for action and maneuver will be increasingly limited.
The State of the Nation 2019 report explains that the economic slowdown and imbalance in public finances created a scenario of great complexity and risk, both economic and political, which aggravated the structural weaknesses or "blind spots" of the national development style.
Although Panamanian businessmen recognize that in the first months of the Cortizo administration there have been advances that could improve the performance of the local economy, it is predicted that the reactivation could take longer than expected.
Arguing that the reduction would support the incipient economic recovery process shown by production indicators, the Central Bank decided to lower the Monetary Policy Rate for the sixth time this year.
The central banks of some advanced and emerging economies have relaxed their interest rates, which expands the space for a countercyclical monetary policy in Costa Rica, according to the Central Bank's analysis.
Arguing that the economic activity reports a behavior attached to the forecasts of growth for 2019, the Central Bank decided to maintain in 2.75% the level of the leading interest rate of monetary policy.
The inflation forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are located within the tolerance margin of the goal established by the Monetary Board, was another of the arguments of the monetary authority to keep the reference rate without variations.
Arguing that in the international context a high uncertainty associated to the commercial tensions between the U.S. and China prevails, the Central Bank of Costa Rica decided to lower for the fifth time so far this year the Monetary Policy Rate, this time to 3.75%.
For the monetary authority, the tension between the two world economic powers has led to a slowdown in trade flows and growth projections in our main trading partners.
Between January and July of this year in Costa Rica the Central Bank lowered the Monetary Policy Rate four times in a row, but its last decision was to maintain it at 4%.
Among the arguments of the monetary authority it is worth highlighting that the international interest rates are adjusted downward. In particular, the US Federal Reserve System reduced the reference interest rate range by 25 base points.
Arguing that there are deflationary pressures and that the unemployment rate remains high, the Central Bank reduced the Monetary Policy Rate from 4.5% to 4%.
This would be the fourth reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate made by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) so far this year, since at the beginning of 2019 was at 5.25% and is currently reduced to 4%.
In the last week of September, the first round of negotiations for the deepening and extension of the Partial Scope Agreement between the two countries is scheduled to take place in Havana.
The second round of negotiations will take place in Guatemala City during the week of October 7-11 this year, and will analyze in depth access to markets and rules of origin, in order to advance in the exchange of negotiating positions, informed the Ministry of Economy of Guatemala (Mineco).
Arguing that deflationary forces persist and that a low rate of economic activity is reported, the Central Bank decided to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate to 4.50%.
This is the third reduction made by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) so far this year, since at the end of March it decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 5.25% to 5% and in May from 5% to 4.75%.
For the third time, in this year, the Banco de Guatemala confirmed that it decided to keep the monetary policy rate at 2.75%, since the short term indicators of the economic activity show a dynamism that adjusts to the expected.
From the Banco de Guatemala press release:
Guatemala, May 30, 2019. The Monetary Board, in its session held on May 29, based on the integral analysis of the external and internal economic situation, after evaluating the Inflation Risks Balance, decided to keep the level of the leading interest rate of the monetary policy at 2.75%.
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