Fifteen months after the beginning of the health and economic crisis, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are the economies in the region with the highest inflation rates, a behavior that was influenced by increases in fuel and transportation costs.
In the second quarter of 2020, a period in which the countries of the region were going through a severe economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, inflation levels were low and in some economies negative variations were reported.
Discounts and offers, increase in the price level generally and the rise in operating costs due to new health and safety protocols are the main threats to the profitability of companies in this new commercial reality.
Given this context of economic and health crisis, which derives from the outbreak of covid-19 at the global level, Ariel Baños, a specialist in price management and founder of Fijaciondeprecios.com, explains what are the main threats that could affect the profitability levels of companies, and details some strategies that could be applied to mitigate the adverse effects.
At the end of last year, the Consumer Price Index in the country reported a 6.1% year-on-year variation, an inflationary rhythm that is higher than the 3.9% registered in December 2018.
After not publishing for several months the information on the behavior of prices in the country, the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN) decided to report that in December 2019 the annual inflation was 6.1%.
After the July Consumer Price Index reported a 6.1% year-on-year variation, in August the increase was 6.3%.
In cumulative terms, national inflation stood at 4.03% (1.66% in August 2018), induced by the behavior of prices in the divisions of Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (42.89%), Several goods and services (9.87%), and Food and non-alcoholic beverages (2.81%), with a joint contribution of 2.13%, reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua.
Avoiding hurried discounts, managing price increases according to costs and improving cash flow are some of the strategies that companies can resort to protect their profitability in contexts of inflation and recession.
Ariel Baños, a price management specialist and founder of Fijciondeprecios.com, explains four strategies for maintaining profitability when companies face scenarios of rising prices and low dynamism in economic activity.
During June, the Consumer Price Index reported a 5.6% year-on-year variation, an inflationary rhythm that is lower than the 6% registered in May.
From the Central Bank of Nicaragua report:
The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.09 percent monthly increase (0.44% in June 2018), mainly explained by the behavior of prices in some goods and services of the Food and non-alcoholic beverages divisions (0.63%); Restaurants and hotels (0.60%); and Diverse goods and services (0.74%); which together contributed 0.333 percentage points to the observed variation. On the other hand, the division of Recreation and culture showed a 4.37 percent decrease, for a negative contribution of 0.167 percentage points.
In the sixth month of the year, the FAO food price index increased by 1% compared to the same month in 2018, explained by the increase in the prices of cereals, meat and sugar.
From FAO's monthly report:
The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 173 points in June 2019, down marginally (0.3 percent) from May and very close to its level in June 2018.
In May, the CPI rose 6%, reinforcing the upward trend that has been reported since February.
In February, the indicator stood at 3.3%, in March it was 5.1% and in April, 5.8%. The May figure reinforces the upward trend that is likely to continue for the rest of the year.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a 0.77% monthly increase (0.55% in May 2018), mainly because of the behavior of prices in some goods and services of the Food and non-alcoholic beverages divisions (1.12%), informed the Central Bank of Nicaragua.
Because of the impact of the crisis, for this year it is estimated that the contraction in economic activity will be between 7% and 11%, and the open unemployment rate could increase from 5.5% to 8.5%.
Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), contains estimates of the behavior of the country's economy for this year, within the framework of the political and economic crisis it is going through.
After the country's Consumer Price Index rose to 3.3% in February 2019, it went up to 5.1% in March and 5.8% in April.
Year-on-year inflation was 5.77%, 0.95% higher than in April 2018, while core year-on-year inflation was 6.30%, reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
The NCB document explains that "... The division of Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco registered a 10.0 percent variation and contributed 0.147 percentage points.
During the third month of the year, the CPI registered a 1.82% monthly variation, mainly because of the prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco.
In cumulative terms, domestic inflation was 1.84%, year-on-year inflation was 5.09%, 0.25% higher than in March 2018, while base year-on-year inflation was 5.25% (4.20% in March 2018), reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
After the country's Consumer Price Index rose to 3.3% in February 2019, it increased to 5.1% in March.
The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a monthly increase of 1.82% (0.14% in March 2018), mainly because of the rise in prices of some goods and services of the divisions: Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (31.37%), Miscellaneous goods and services (3.76%), and Food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.62%), which together contributed 1.176 percentage points to the observed variation, reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
Education and transportation services were the main spending divisions that during the second month of the year caused the variation of the Consumer Price Index in the country.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February showed a 0.27 percent monthly increase (0.22% in February 2018), mainly because of the behavior of prices in some goods and services of the divisions of Education (3.86%), Transportation (1.35%), Furniture and household goods and their conservation (0.67%), which together contributed 0.388 percentage points to the observed variation, explains a report from the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
During the first month of the year, the CPI registered a -0.25% variation, mainly because of the prices of the Recreation and Culture, and Food and non-alcoholic beverages divisions.
The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.25% monthly decrease, year-on-year inflation at 3.3%, while core year-on-year inflation was 3.88%, reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua.
In December, the CPI registered a monthly variation of 0.6%, because of the rise in Food and non-alcoholic beverages, Recreation and Culture and Health prices.
The report of the Central Bank of Nicaragua states that "... In cumulative terms, national inflation in 2018 reached 3.89 percent, 1.79 percentage points lower than that recorded in 2017 (5.68%).