According to the Central Bank, the constructive activity and consumption spending that Guatemalans make with the money received from abroad will boost the economy by the end of 2019, and this expansive cycle could extend until 2020.
During this year residential and commercial construction, together with public investment, have affected activities such as manufacturing, mining and quarrying, private services and commerce, informed representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat).
In Guatemala, the hardware industry is expecting its sales to grow 20% this year, mainly explained by the good performance it has reported so far in 2019.
According to projections of the Banco de Guatemala (Banguat), updated to September 2019, it is forecast that at the close of this year the construction sector will grow by 5.8%, a rise that would be explained by more flexible procedures in the processing of permits.
Between the first half of 2018 and the same period in 2019, the number of hotel rooms in the country grew 4%, and occupancy rose from 62.9% to 63.4%.
Official figures specify that between January and June last year and the first half of 2019, in the hotel sector the number of establishments went from 3,315 to 3,524, and in the case of the number of rooms went from 55,735 to 58,024.
From January to June 2019, the country received $536 million in foreign direct investment, 2% less than in the same period of 2018.
According to data from the Bank of Guatemala, between the first semester of 2018 and the same period of 2019, foreign direct investment (FDI) that arrived in the country decreased by $10 million, going from $546 million to $536 million.
From January to September 2019, family remittances to Guatemala totaled $7.748 million, 14% more than in the same period in 2018.
The most recent figures from the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) indicate that in September 2019 the country received remittances of $892 million, 20% more than the $745 million recorded in the same month in 2018.
Although Guatemala's foreign sales continue to decline, an improvement is expected towards the end of the year, which would be explained by a rebound in the prices of some agricultural products.
Figures from the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) specify that in the first six months of the year sales abroad totaled $5,666 million, a figure that is just 0.3% lower than the $5,681 million reported in the same period of 2018.
Although Guatemala and the U.S. have already signed an agreement on migration issues, the exchange rate reported a slight increase and the upward trend is expected to continue over the next few days.
President Trump's warning to Guatemala to impose export tariffs and taxes on remittances and transfers had a direct impact on the exchange market.
Data from the Banco de Guatemala indicate that between July 23 and 29 the price of the Quetzal with respect to the US dollar increased from Q7.64 to Q7.68, which according to the authorities is explained by the uncertainty generated by the possible sanctions against the country.
Most of the reported increase in foreign investment flows to the country in the first quarter of the year was explained by investments in the electricity sector.
In the first quarter of 2019, figures from the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) report a considerable increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) compared to the same period last year, going from $293 million to $340 million.
At the end of June in Guatemala, credit to the private sector registered a 7% year-on-year growth, which is explained by the upturn in mortgage and consumer loans.
Figures published by representatives of the Banco de Guatemala specify that at the end of the first semester of the year, the total credit to the private sector reached $26.571 million, amount that is 6.9% higher than that reported a year ago.
The rise in microcredits, consumer loans and the construction sector contributed to the 7% year-on-year increase reported in April 2019.
Data from the Bank of Guatemala show that between April 2018 and the same month of 2019, credit to the private sector in the country increased from $24.687 million to $26.534 million, which is equivalent to a 7.4% increase.
During the first three months of the year, the country exported $109 million worth of fruit, 12% less than in the same period in 2018, in part because of the closure of one of the most important companies.
Figures from the Banco de Guatemala detail that between the first quarter of 2018 and the same period of 2019, foreign sales of fresh, dried and frozen fruits decreased from $123 million to $109 million.
For the Guatemalan private sector, the uncertainty that prevails in the country is because the details of the government programs of the political parties that will participate in the General Elections are not known until now.
Last March 18 officially began the political campaign for the General Elections in the country, but the legal inconveniences faced by some candidates for the presidency cause doubts in the future, since there is no clarity of who will participate in the process and the government plans of the candidates are not known in depth.
Data from the Bank of Guatemala indicate that in 2018 the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) that attracted the country reached $1.032 million, $738 million lower than the $1.170 billion registered in 2017.
Data from the Bank of Guatemala indicate that in 2018 the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) that attracted the country reached $1.032 million, $738 million lower than the $1.170 billion registered in 2017.
Although poor social indicators and a low tax burden are a threat to the country's progress, for Fitch the Guatemalan economy has the capacity to overcome external adversities.
After the last visit of Fitch Ratings to Guatemala, representatives of the rating agency expressed the opinion that health, education and security indicators, together with the tax situation, are issues that should concern the country.
On March 18, the political campaign for the General Elections in Guatemala officially began, but the legal inconveniences faced by some candidates cause doubts for the future.
Zury Ríos, Thelma Aldana and Sandra Torres are the three presidential candidates leading the voting intentions for the 2019 General Elections, but both Ríos and Aldana have had legal problems in their registration process, and Torres, already a registered candidate, was accused of illegal electoral financing. These cases have caught the public's attention and prevented them from knowing the concrete economic proposals.
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