The government and businessmen agree that 2021 will be a good year for construction, as the Bank of Guatemala projects that the sector will grow by 7.5%, while the builders' guild estimates that activity will increase by 3%.
According to official forecasts made by the central bank, it is estimated that during 2020, economic activity in the construction sector fell by 7.4% due to the crisis caused by the outbreak of covid-19.
In June 2020, in the context of confinement and the economic crisis, bank credit to the private sector reported an 8% year-on-year increase, but as of July growth began to slow and in September the increase was 5.7%.
According to figures from the Bank of Guatemala, total credit to the private sector began 2020 with a 5.7% year-on-year increase. As of March, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be detected and the government decreed restrictions on mobility, the growth of the credit portfolio accelerated, with a variation of 8% being reported during the third month of the year.
Agriculture, Financial and Insurance Activities, and Real Estate Activities, are the sectors that in Guatemala and in the context of the economic reopening, have increased their growth forecasts for 2020.
In June, when mobility restrictions were severe in the country due to the outbreak of covid-19, the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) predicted that by the end of the year, Agriculture would grow by 1.1%, Financial and insurance activities by 2% and Real estate activities by 2.8%.
Variations indicating a certain improvement in the world economy, the reopening of different markets and the recovery of exports are some of the factors that could influence Guatemala's economic activity to decrease less than expected in 2020.
The Monetary Board approved the changes to the Credit Risk Regulations, which were proposed by the Superintendence of Banks and seek to simplify the requirements for loans not exceeding $160,000.
In this scenario of economic crisis resulting from the outbreak of covid-19, the objective of the endorsed modifications is to favor SMEs and individuals to gain access to credit lines offered by commercial banks.
Between 2010 and 2019 exports of textile companies in Guatemala reported an average annual growth of 2%, a rise that is attributed to demand from companies in the United States.
According to figures from the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the manufacture of clothing items was the sector that generated more foreign exchange during the past year, as revenues amounted to $ 1,397 million.
During the first month of the year, family remittances sent to Guatemala registered a 22% year-on-year variation, a rise that exceeds the 8% increase registered in the same period in 2018.
According to the most recent figures from the Bank of Guatemala, in January 2020 the country received remittances of $834 million, an amount that exceeds by $46 million that registered in the same month of 2019.
In Guatemala, Banco de Inversión S.A. acquired 60% of the asset portfolio of Financiera de Occidente S.A., which was suspended in December 2019.
On December 13, 2019, the Monetary Board reported that because management practices were detected that put its solvency and soundness at risk, it decided to suspend the operations of Financiera Occidente S.A., an entity that at that time represented 0.35% of the total assets of the local banking system.
It is estimated that by the end of 2019, Guatemalan exports registered a slight year-on-year increase of 1%; however, for this year, an increase of between 1.5% and 4% is expected.
Directors of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) reported that the prospects for this year are more favorable, since it is expected a better performance in exports of several products, including bananas.
At the end of 2019 in Guatemala, the loan portfolio granted to the private sector grew by 5% compared to December 2020; however, this increase was far from the 8.5% predicted at the beginning of last year.
Official figures from the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) indicate that between December 2018 and the same month in 2019, the private sector loan portfolio increased from $26,262 million to $27,640 million.
From January to September 2019, the country received $671 million in foreign direct investment, 6% more than in the same period in 2018.
Figures from the Bank of Guatemala show that between the first nine months of 2018 and the same period in 2019, foreign direct investment (FDI) that reached the country increased by $39 million, from $671 million to $632 million.
Out of the almost 80,000 companies reported by the Banguat National Directory, 6 out of ten have between one and five employees, and only 2 out of ten have more than 99 people employed.
In the last update of the National Directory of Companies and their Premises (Dinel), registered by the Banco de Guatemala, 79,542 companies were reported, most of which are concentrated in the departments of Guatemala, Quetzaltenango and Sacatepéquez.
With a new methodology, the Banco de Guatemala determined that the value of the informal economy already adds up to the equivalent of 22% of the Gross Domestic Product.
The new calculation used by the Banco de Guatemala (Banguat) to measure national production now includes the measurement of the informal economy, mainly its participation in productive activity.
According to the Central Bank, the constructive activity and consumption spending that Guatemalans make with the money received from abroad will boost the economy by the end of 2019, and this expansive cycle could extend until 2020.
During this year residential and commercial construction, together with public investment, have affected activities such as manufacturing, mining and quarrying, private services and commerce, informed representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat).
In Guatemala, the hardware industry is expecting its sales to grow 20% this year, mainly explained by the good performance it has reported so far in 2019.
According to projections of the Banco de Guatemala (Banguat), updated to September 2019, it is forecast that at the close of this year the construction sector will grow by 5.8%, a rise that would be explained by more flexible procedures in the processing of permits.
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