According to IMF forecasts, Panama and El Salvador are the economies that in 2020 will report the worst falls in their production, while Guatemala would be the country in the region that would emerge best from this economic and health crisis.
Due to the severe economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the economic growth projections calculated by international organizations are not at all encouraging for Central America.
For the entity, "growth has been accelerating since mid-2018 after three years of weak performance," and a variation of 3.4% of GDP is expected for 2019.
Backed by a positive fiscal boost, the recovery of exports after last year's decline resulting from a deterioration in the terms of trade, and the dynamism of private investment. Growth would peak at 3.7% in 2021, before converging towards the potential rate of 3.5% by 2024, the International Monetary Fund reported after its last visit to the country.
In 2018, the construction sector in Guatemala registered a nearly 4% growth, which reinforces the upward trend that has been reported since 2011.
Data from the Guatemalan Chamber of Construction (CGC) detail that from 2011 the sector has reported growth rates, reaching its highest level in 2014 when the recorded increase was 4.4%.
The Bank of Guatemala expects next year's economic growth to be better than in 2018, which would be caused by higher public spending and the growth of family remittances.
Authorities of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) informed that the Guatemalan economy will close 2018 with a nearly 3% growth, however, for next year is expected that the increase in GDP will be in the range between 3% and 3.8%.
For the second quarter of 2013, economic activity as measured by the estimated real level of GDP grew by almost twice that of the same period last year ..
A report on the estimate of quarterly GDP, for the second quarter of 2013 has been published by the Bank of Guatemala:
Estimated GDP for the second quarter of 2013
In the second quarter of 2013, economic activity measured by the estimate of real gross domestic product showed a growth of 4.3% (2.8% in the same quarter of the previous year) due to an observed increase in domestic demand, particularly in private consumption and public consumption spending, and also because of the growth recorded in exports of goods and services, both of which positively influenced the performance shown by the majority of economic activities, mainly manufacturing , financial intermediation, insurance and auxiliary activities, public administration and defense, Wholesale and Retail, private and electricity supply and water collection activities which together represent 84.0% of growth in the quarter under study.
The Bank of Guatemala's growth forecast of 7.7% has been adjusted to 5.9%, while the Guatemalan Chamber of Construction forecasts 2.9%.
Edgar Barquin, president of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), explained that this decision was made based on surveys which reflect employers' decisions about investing, as well as budget execution data, projections and plans by the Government, entry of foreign investment, authorized licenses for construction granted by municipalities, and building spaces.
In Guatemala investment is between 16% and 17% of gross domestic product, in Southeast Asia, the figure is between 25% and 35%.
Elperiodico.com.gt reports that a group of experts met last week in this country to discuss how to foster Guatemala’s growth. The analysis of the issue carried out by a member of The Growth Dialogue think tank can be extrapolated to most Central American countries.
In light of the European crisis and slow growth in the U.S., the best protection for Latin American countries is macroeconomic discipline.
Although it is believed that regional banks are "solid, liquid and stable," the recommendation for Latin America to avoid or at least mitigate the inevitable effects of the economic crisis in Europe and the slow recovery of the U.S., is to keep a lid on fiscal deficit.
Before attempting to expand operations internationally businesses should explore opportunities to do so within the country.
An article in Prensalibre.com points out the advantages, especially in relation to costs, of growing a business within the country, and the specific potential of the interior of Guatemala for expanding business operations.
"Although our country is really very small in terms of geographical distance, the rates businesses with national coverage are low and opportunities are available for many businesses and entrepreneurs."
The establishment of shopping centers and big chain restaurants marks the increase of purchasing power of consumers.
The southwestern region of the country accounts for 21% of national consumption, the highest proportion after the metropolitan area which represents 27%. The central area of the country concentrates only 12%.
The article by Luis Lima Sanchinelli from Elperiodico.com.gt explains by way of example that, "The population of Huehuetenango has quadrupled in the last 50 years (above the national average), and has become an important trading center in the western part of the country. This population growth attracts large store chains and restaurants which have established themselves in the city, taking advantage of a lack of competitors in order to expand and the increase in customer purchasing power.”
Agriculture, industry and services are the sectors that have led the growth of the Guatemalan economy during the first decade of the millennium.
The ninth anniversary of the creation of Guatemalan´s newspaper Siglo XXI section, "Pulso", which specializes in economy and finance, prompted the analysis of the economy´s evolution in that period.
The editorial highlights the agricultural, industrial and services sectors, followed by construction and commerce.
The telecommunications market in Guatemala will grow at a compound rate of 5% over the next 5 years, reaching $2.800 million in 2014.
Revenues for this market were $1.9 billion in 2009, out of which 62% was generated by the mobile segment, according to a recent study by Pyramid Research. This segment would grow at a 13.7% annual rate over the next 5 years and "though messaging will remain the main source of revenue, connectivity will gain more than 10 percentage points of total revenue fueled by mobile Internet and mobile broadband", states a press release in Reuters.com.
Banks credit intermediation and its influence in the generation of goods and services on behalf of the productive system.
In a SECMCA report, Nelson Oswaldo Ramirez presents a brief analysis of the development of banking credit in comparison with the region's economic activity in the first five months of the year. In the way he studies relationships that may exist between the variables of Credit and GDP.
Access to affordable, high quality internet and mobile phone services enables development across all levels of the economy and society.
The report by the World Bank, "Information and Communications for Development 2009: Extending Reach and Increasing Impact" takes an in-depth look at how ICT impacts economic growth in developing countries. The report finds that for every 10 percentage-point increase in high speed Internet connections there is an increase in economic growth of 1.3 percentage points. It also identifies the mobile platform as the single most powerful way to reach and deliver public and private services to hundreds of millions of people in remote and rural areas across the developing world.
español
6779
