After the announcement of the intention to increase the tax on the distribution of cement and fuel in Guatemala, businessmen believe that in this scenario of incipient economic recovery it is not a good idea to increase the tax burden.
In order to face the effects of the economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, Guatemalan authorities are already beginning to discuss the fiscal policy to be applied in 2021.
In this scenario of economic crisis, falling tax revenues and the need to finance recovery programs, in Guatemala and Costa Rica it is already proposed to increase current taxes and create new ones.
Guatemalan authorities are already beginning to discuss the fiscal policy they will apply in 2021, when the economy will have to face the effects of the economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak.
In this regional context of economic crisis, falling fiscal revenues and increasing public debt, Costa Rica's debt level is expected to rise to 75% of GDP by 2021, and in the case of El Salvador, the indicator could exceed 85%.
The outbreak of covid-19 in Central America forced the government to declare severe household quarantines and to restrict several economic activities, restrictions that in some cases are still in place after five months of health and economic crisis.
"Public debt in terms of simple average for the Central American region will continue growing, reaching 43.1% of GDP in 2018, after having registered 42.5% in 2017."
The Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi) estimates that for the current year the size of public expenditure of the Central Government in relation to the respective Gross Domestic Product of each country will be 21.4% in Costa Rica, 20.4% in El Salvador, 20% in Honduras, 18.4% in Nicaragua, 17.6% in Panama and 12.1% in Guatemala.
In the opinion of the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies, the only way to consolidate public finances in a sustainable way is to reduce tax breaks and increase tax collections.
From a statement issued by the Central Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi):
The Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (Icefi) has proposed as a fiscal agenda for development: meeting the public demand for integrity and transparency; effective, efficient and effectual public spending as a tool for inclusive and democratic development; and financial viability with taxation being part of democratic accountability.
Despite several announcements of new taxes, the government will focus on controlling tax evasion and leave the decision to implement a tax reform to future administrations.
According to authorities at the Ministry of Finance, at the moment there is no consensus for fiscal reform. The priority now will be to pursue and strengthen tax administration in order to meet budget expenditures this year.
The average tax burden for the region is 13.4% of GDP, while the average public expenditure increased from 18.7% in 2013 to 19.2% at the end of 2014.
From the Introduction of the report Macrofiscal profiles in Central America, from Instituto Centroamericano de Estudios Fiscales (Icefi):
The fiscal situation has worsened in Central America in recent months, mainly due to a structural lack of sufficient resources to meet the needs of Central Americans and realize many of the commitments made by governments.
The tax burden was placed at 10.9%, as a result of a tax proceeds of $5.912 million, 8.1% higher than in 2012.
Guatemala's fiscal deficit ended the year at 2.2%, below the Government's initial estimate of 2.5 %.
From a press release by the Ministry of Finance:
The Ministry of Finance reports that at the close of the fiscal accounts for 2013 has been completed and given results that demonstrate the efficient and sound management of fiscal policy. The deficit stood at 2.2% of GDP, a level that fosters macroeconomic stability and economic development. The delay in approving budget support loans and behavior of tax revenues represented adversities which were properly dealt with.
The technical redefinitions that make up a successful tax reform should be based on a reformulation of the social contract which establishes national goals.
Nacion.com reports that "According to Augusto de la Torre, Chief Economist at the World Bank, the fiscal debate is more than just an economic debate, it is almost a philosophical debate about the kind of state we want to have."
Experts agree Alvaro Colom’s successor will face a difficult fiscal, economic and political situation.
First, it will be difficult to achieve the tax reform needed to tackle the decline in tax revenues which is set to continue into 2012. Ricardo Barrientos, Central Institute for Fiscal Studies (ICEFI in Spanish), also said that the losing candidate in the election will become the main opposition, and will complicate any reform attempts or approval of additional financing for the state.