For Fitch, the delay in vaccination campaigns constitutes a latent risk of a prolonged pandemic, which would delay the recovery of the region's economies and would cause negative pressures on the risk ratings to be issued in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings issued a bulletin for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean on May 25, in which it warned that given the deep economic contractions in the region and the moderate recovery outlook, there are threats of negative rating pressures.
Fitch Ratings agreed to change the perspective of the region's banks from stable to negative, arguing that the current health crisis will affect financial institutions in all countries.
Considering the measures that countries have adopted in the last 15 days in economic matters, following the spread of covid-19, Fitch expects that there will be a decrease in the issuance of loans.
The latest risk ratings for the issuance of long-term debt of Central American economies identify Panama as the most attractive country to invest in.
On March 8, Moody's decided to raise its long-term issuer rating in foreign currency from Baa2 to Baa1, arguing that the outlook remains more favorable in the medium term.
The governments of Costa Rica and Nicaragua will face greater challenges in obtaining financing in external markets, because of the lowering of their risk ratings by international agencies.
Arguing that Costa Rica reflects consistently large fiscal deficits, short-term financing needs because of a strong repayment schedule and budget financing constraints, Fitch Ratings reported on January 15 that the country's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating was downgraded from BB to B+.
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Brazilian construction firm from B- to CC, arguing that the revelations about bribes "have exacerbated its reputational risk".
From a press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-Sao Paulo-17 January 2017: This is a correction of a release published Jan. 17, 2017. It corrects the rating for the USD800 million senior unsecured notes due 2023.
Moody's warns of the risks faced by banks in Central America in the context of a rising trend in interest rates and dollarization of their loan portfolios.
From a report by Moody's:
Mexico, September 14, 2016 -- Banks in Central America face rising asset risks as interest rates look set to rise in the region, pushing up debt service costs for borrowers, according to a report from Moody's Investors Service.
It is difficult to understand - especially because it has been made public - how a major state bank has described the International Bank of Costa Rica as "high risk" while another main state bank has stated the opposite.
EDITORIAL
The banks involved are Banco de Costa Rica (BCR) and Banco Nacional (BN). Between them they are the owners of Banco Internacional de Costa Rica (BICSA), with 51% of the shares the first and 49% of the second.
Noting the political system's inability to agree on fiscal issues, Standard & Poor's has downgraded, from BB to BB-, the rating for the country's long-term debt, giving it a negative outlook.
Costa Rica Long-Term Ratings Lowered To 'BB-' On Continued Fiscal Deterioration; Outlook Is Negative
25 Feb 2016
Source: Standardandpoors.com
OVERVIEW
The combination of growing spending pressures and lack of tax reform has weakened Costa Rica's public finances and raised its vulnerability to
Fitch notes that the relatively favorable external environment will not be enough for Central American countries to improve their credit ratings, which could remain stable despite fiscal problems.
From the press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-22 October 2015: External tailwinds are unlikely to lead to a significant uplift in Central America's creditworthiness, says Fitch Ratings in a new special report.
Standard & Poor's has warned of the risk of default in the next two years and reduced the rating for the sovereign debt of Venezuela, the principal debtor of the Colon Free Zone.
From a statement issued by Standard & Poor's:
OVERVIEW
The Venezuelan government's failure to take timely corrective actions to address growing economic distortions has contributed to economic deterioration and shortages of foreign exchange.
Slow growth is projected in El Salvador, very good performance in Nicaragua, stability in Panama, more competition in Guatemala and moderate growth in Costa Rica.
From a report by Fitch Ratings entitled "2015 Perspectives: Central American Banks":
Costa Rica:
Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook for the sector from positive to stable, because the agency does not anticipate substantial improvements in respect to the previous year.
Moody's is warning that countries with oil deals with Venezuela face risks if this country reduces or eliminates its financial support to the block.
A report by the rating agency notes that "In the countries of Central America and the Caribbean, the "most vulnerable" are Nicaragua and Jamaica, while less exposed are Honduras and Guatemala."
Moody's reached this conclusion after analyzing data from the current account balance of each member country, its dependence on oil imports, particularly on crude oil from Venezuelan.
The most perverse thing about the credit risk rating system is that it has weakened (deliberately?) the indispensable analytical skills of investors.
The resignation of Standard & Poor's chief executive of following the agency’s downgrading of the U.S.’s credit rating, reveals the fragility of the whole risk rating system.
Rating agencies are in the pillory, especially after episodes like the mortgage crisis of 2008 - or before that- the shameful Enron episode. It is not helping that it was the president of S & P who was the fuse that went off when the system became overheated by the sacrosanct downgrading of the United States’ rating.
The U.S. could be facing a possible reduction in their risk rating, due to levels of national debt and government deficit.
Democrats and Republicans have been debating in the United States Congress trying to reach an agreement that will raise the debt ceiling and secure public finances for the future, avoiding a potential cessation of payments or a reduction in the country’s risk rating.